NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Rookies get all the attention. They’re the flashy new piece that could be anything. And then a class of rookies comes through and they’re old news, replaced by the next flashy, new thing. But last year’s rookies aren’t gone, and in many cases, they’re going to be even better than the exciting new pieces that are just showing up.
Of course, sometimes they won’t be, and that matters too. So as we head toward training camp, preseason, and then the start of the 2022 NFL season, we’re taking a look at last year’s rookie class. What did we think about last year’s rookie class? What worked? What didn’t? And what’s the prognosis for them going forward?
Jaylen Waddle, WR, Miami Dolphins
In Jaylen Waddle’s last season at Alabama, he was must-see TV before breaking his ankle after just four full games. Through those four games, Waddle had 25 receptions, 557 yards and four touchdowns. His game-breaking speed made him just as much of a threat as his eventual Heisman-winning teammate, DeVonta Smith.
Despite missing the majority of the year, Waddle’s freaky athleticism and production got him drafted sixth overall by the Miami Dolphins. After a record-setting rookie season, he’ll look to take his game to another level in 2022.
What Went Right
Pre-draft scouting reports on Waddle most often compared him to Tyreek Hill, his new Dolphins teammate. In college, Waddle made his mark on long touchdowns and explosive plays, but in his rookie season, he thrived closer to the line of scrimmage.
According to PFF, Waddle was the third-most effective receiver in the NFL on passes within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. That worked well considering Tua Tagovailoa had the lowest deep-ball rate of any quarterback with at least 100 pass attempts. As a result, Waddle served as Tua’s safety blanket and broke Anquan Boldin’s rookie reception record with a whopping 104 catches.
He played 60% of his snaps in the slot as a rookie, but he was far and away the alpha wide receiver in Miami. Waddle ranked 11th in the NFL in targets and led the team with over a 25% target share. In fact, that target share jumped to 31% over his final six games of the season. For reference, that would’ve ranked third in the NFL for a full season, behind only Cooper Kupp and Davante Adams.
A high target share, rapport with his quarterback and a propensity to get open helped Waddle finish as WR17 in half-PPR.
What Went Wrong
Waddle had a great rookie season, but there are a handful of things that can further boost his fantasy ceiling in 2022. Most notably, we didn’t see as many explosive plays as expected after watching his final season at Alabama.
Despite his blazing speed and ankle-breaking agility, Waddle ranked just 63rd in missed tackles forced per reception and 82nd in yards per reception among receivers with at least 50 targets. With an average depth of target of only 7.5 yards – mostly a product of Tua – fantasy managers would’ve expected Waddle to pile on yards after the catch. His 4.2 YAC was fine but certainly nothing to write home about.
Still, his pure athleticism is reason to believe the explosive plays are coming, especially with as many opportunities as he had in year one.
Prognosis Entering 2022
The Dolphins made one of the summer’s many blockbuster moves when they acquired Tyreek Hill from the Chiefs. Bringing in Hill alongside Waddle probably gives Miami the fastest 1-2 punch at wide receiver in the NFL, but what does that actually mean for Waddle’s fantasy outlook?
For starters, Hill will take away some of Waddle’s first-read opportunities. In 2021, Waddle was his quarterback’s first-read target 124 times, good for ninth in the NFL, but Hill was just ahead of him with 130. If he’s the first read a bit less often, he’ll either need to be more efficient with his short-yardage touches or play more downfield.
On the other hand, Hill may open things up for Waddle. Having one of the game’s elite field-stretchers on the outside will almost certainly pull defenders away from the line of scrimmage, where Waddle excelled last season. That could open up opportunities for the speedster to dart through a less-crowded middle of the field and rack up YAC.
It’s tough to say whether Hill’s impact on Waddle will be more positive or negative, but I’m betting on the talent. Consider Waddle a high-floor WR2 with upside.
