UFC 272 DFS Picks

Welcome to my DFS breakdown for UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal. The UFC is in the midst of a stretch of events on eight straight weekends and that continues this weekend with a massive PPV event scheduled for Saturday night at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. 

We currently have 13 fights scheduled for Saturday night’s event, including two five-round matchups. In the main event, Colby Covington and Jorge Masvidal will settle their beef once and for all inside of the octagon over the course of five rounds. In the co-main event, Renato Moicano is stepping up on short notice to take on lightweight legend Rafael dos Anjos in a fight that remains scheduled for five rounds, although at a catchweight of 165 pounds Elsewhere on the card are some bright prospects for the UFC including Umar Nurmagomedov and Mariya Agapova alongside fan-favorites such as Bryce Mitchell and Kevin Holland. I’ll be in the FTNDaily Discord leading up to Saturday’s slate to discuss last-minute changes and additional general slate strategy.

In this weekly article, I will outline three fighters who present strong floors and ceilings for your DraftKings lineups. 

High Tier: Colby Covington, $9,400

I don’t typically like to include fighters from the main event in my articles since they’re so clearly strong plays, but on a week with 13 fights including two five-round affairs, I think we’ll make an exception for Covington. He enters this weekend’s main event as a massive favorite with an implied win probability right around 75%. Covington is a fighter who has historically been very successful for DFS outside of his two losses to Kamaru Usman because “Chaos” pushes a relentless pace that features a bunch of wrestling. Over the course of his UFC career, Covington has averaged over four takedowns per 15 minutes in addition to over four strikes landed per minute. Although he doesn’t have a ton of finishing upside, Covington arguably has a higher upside in fights when he can just rinse and repeat takedowns against opponents for a full 25 minutes. Covington has been in three five-round fights not including his losses to Usman and has averaged 149 DK points per fight. Nobody on this slate can match Covington’s upside. 

Mid-Tier: Bryce Mitchell, $8,300

We’ll keep the trend of targeting wrestlers this weekend going in the mid-tier as I’m going to be overweight on Mitchell. There’s no doubt that “Thug Nasty” is facing the stiffest test of his UFC career against Edson Barboza Saturday, but I think that this is a stylistic matchup that favors the American. Mitchell entered the UFC as a very strong scrambler and grappler when it came to his unorthodox jiu-jitsu, but he’s shown real growth in his takedown entries. Last time out, Mitchell landed seven takedowns against Andre Fili and outperformed my expectations. It’s clear that Mitchell will be in danger on the feet in this spot, but Mitchell is a high-IQ fighter and is likely to force takedown opportunities. Barboza has decent takedown defense historically, but Mitchell’s wrestling is solid and Barboza’s getup game is pretty dreadful when he ends up on bottom. I think Mitchell is live for a submission this weekend but can still put up a strong score if he lands two or three takedowns en route to a decision at just $8,300. 

Low Tier: We got options

I’ve felt as though this portion of the article for the last few weeks has largely been trying to find plays who won’t lose you money on a slate, but I feel as though this week is a great one to target underdogs. Instead of talking about fighters that can hopefully not bury us, this is a week where I actually think underdogs have a solid chance at taking us to the top of the leaderboards. Here are my three favorite options below $7.9K. 

• Greg Hardy, $7,500: Hardy is a betting underdog this weekend against Serghei Spivac, and for good reason as we’ve seen Hardy struggle to become a true mixed martial artist inside the octagon. However, Hardy is still a big hitter at heavyweight and has a big athleticism advantage over Spivak, who we’ve seen knocked out twice in the first round inside the octagon. Hardy figures to be under-owned this weekend relative to his first-round finishing upside. 
• Rafael dos Anjos, $7,300: RDA may end up as the highest-rostered fighter this weekend, and it makes a lot of sense why. After being priced on DraftKings for a matchup against Rafael Fiziev that has since fallen through, Dos Anjos is now a moderately sized favorite over Renato Moicano at just $7,300. On top of his line value, this fight is five rounds and is favored to hit the championship rounds. Stacking both RDA and Moicano for a combined $14,500 in cash game formats makes a lot of sense. 
• Tim Elliott, $7,200: I’m taking my shot on Elliott this weekend against Tagir Ulanbekov. I know Ulanbekov is known as a Russian wrestler who has landed nine takedowns through two fights inside the UFC, but I think he’s up against it against Elliott, who is a very strong wrestler and scrambler in his own right and has the ability to kick his opponent’s legs, which Ulanbekov has struggled with. Elliott is super cheap and in a matchup that will feature a ton of grappling, where Elliott has averaged well over a takedown per round inside the UFC. I think Elliott is close to a coinflip to win this fight and has 130-point upside even in three-round bouts.