Belmont Stakes 2025: Betting Picks

The 2025 Belmont Stakes, set for June 7 at Saratoga Race Course, presents a unique betting landscape shaped by both tradition and change. For the second consecutive year, the race will be held at Saratoga due to ongoing renovations at Belmont Park. Additionally, the race distance has been shortened to 1¼ miles, aligning with the Kentucky Derby’s length. These adjustments, coupled with the distinct characteristics of Saratoga’s track, introduce new variables for bettors to consider.

Weather conditions are poised to play a significant role in this year’s race. Forecasts predict rain showers throughout the day, potentially leading to a sloppy track by the 7:04 p.m. ET post time. Such conditions can dramatically influence race dynamics, often favoring horses with proven performance on wet surfaces. Notably, Sovereignty, the Kentucky Derby winner, showcased his prowess on a sloppy track during his Derby victory. Similarly, Uncaged boasts a strong record on wet tracks, with two wins and his highest Beyer Speed Figure achieved under muddy conditions at Saratoga. These factors make them compelling considerations for bettors looking to capitalize on the anticipated track conditions.

As the field prepares for the final leg of the Triple Crown, understanding the interplay between track conditions, horse performance history, and race dynamics will be crucial for developing effective betting strategies. In the sections that follow, we’ll delve deeper into these elements to equip you with insights for informed wagering on the 2025 Belmont Stakes.

The 2025 Belmont Stakes Field

Understanding each horse’s running style, along with their jockey and trainer combinations, provides valuable insights for bettors aiming to strategize effectively for the 2025 Belmont Stakes.

1. Hill Road

• Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
• Trainer: Chad Brown
• Morning Line Odds: 10-1
• Running Style: Grinder/Closer
• Maintains a consistent, one-paced late kick. Often starts in sixth or seventh position, gradually overtaking tired horses. Relies more on attrition than a sudden burst of speed.

2. Sovereignty

• Jockey: Junior Alvarado
• Trainer: Bill Mott
• Morning Line Odds: 2-1
• Running Style: Stalker/Midpack
• Settles in midpack, slightly more reserved early than Journalism. Prefers to unwind gradually, relying on race shape.

3. Rodriguez

• Jockey: Mike Smith
• Trainer: Bob Baffert
• Morning Line Odds: 6-1
• Running Style: Frontrunner
• Needs to secure the lead early to perform optimally. Exhibits blazing gate speed but has questionable stamina over 1¼ miles. Vulnerable if pressed or if the pace is contested.

4. Uncaged

• Jockey: Luis Saez
• Trainer: Todd Pletcher
• Morning Line Odds: 30-1
• Running Style: Tactical/Midpack
• Typically sits in fourth-fifth position. Versatile but lacks a strong closing punch. May serve as a pacemaker or “rabbit” for stablemate Crudo.

5. Crudo

• Jockey: John Velazquez
• Trainer: Todd Pletcher
• Morning Line Odds: 15-1
• Running Style: Presser/Optional Speed
• Naturally forward-placed but doesn’t require the lead. Can press from second or sit third if the pace is hot. Potentially dangerous if left alone up front.

6. Baeza

• Jockey: Flavien Prat
• Trainer: John Shirreffs
• Morning Line Odds: 4-1
• Running Style: Closer/Midpack-to-Rear
• Typically positions 6-7 lengths back early. Possesses a strong late turn-of-foot, especially when the pace collapses. Requires a clean outside run to reach top speed.

7. Journalism

• Jockey: Umberto Rispoli
• Trainer: Michael McCarthy
• Morning Line Odds: 8-5
• Running Style: Stalker/Presser
• Tends to position himself 2-4 lengths off the lead early. Initiates a sustained run on the far turn, showcasing strong acceleration when clear.

8. Heart of Honor

• Jockey: Saffie Osborne
• Trainer: Jamie Osborne
• Morning Line Odds: 30-1
• Running Style: Deep Closer
• Lacks early speed, often trailing the field initially. Possesses a big late stride, benefiting from a hot pace and wide trip. Best considered for third/fourth in exotic bets unless the race pace collapses.

2025 Belmont Stakes Betting Trends

The Belmont has always been a puzzle, but Saratoga’s new setup adds extra layers. Between the shorter distance, the track bias and this year’s pace scenario, there are clear angles worth leaning into. Here are the key takeaways to keep in mind when placing your bets:

Shorter Distance Shifts the Profile

With the Belmont Stakes running at 1¼ miles again this year due to Saratoga’s track configuration, speed and tactical positioning become more important than raw stamina. The cutback in distance benefits horses who can stay close early and still have enough in the tank late. That’s a very different dynamic from the traditional 1½-mile marathon at Belmont Park.

Saratoga Favors Early Speed

Saratoga’s dirt track historically rewards horses who are forwardly placed. Over the last two years, 52% of dirt route winners at Saratoga were on or near the lead. Only 12% came from the back of the pack. That trend puts frontrunners and pressers in the driver’s seat and raises red flags for horses who need to come from far back.

Inside Posts Are a Real Edge

At this distance on this track, drawing inside can be a difference-maker. Horses breaking from posts 1 through 3 have won 52.9% of 1¼-mile dirt races at Saratoga. That ground-saving position is especially valuable for speed types who can grab the lead or sit just off it without losing momentum into the first turn.

Watch the Pace Setup

The way this race unfolds early could dictate everything. Rodriguez is likely to gun it from the jump, and Crudo isn’t far behind in terms of early intent. If those two hook up and the fractions heat up, it creates an opportunity for someone like Journalism to sit just behind and pounce late. Understanding who sets the pace (and how fast they go) is one of the most important factors in this race.

Derby Experience Matters

Looking back at the last few decades, Belmont winners often come from the Kentucky Derby. In fact, 69% (nice) of them ran in the Derby, and 73% of those skipped the Preakness. That rest-and-reload angle has worked repeatedly, especially when the Belmont field lacks a dominant horse.

Favorites Win, But Not Always

Favorites have won 66 Belmont Stakes, a 42.6% rate overall. But since the Derby points system started in 2012, only five favorites have delivered in the Belmont. This isn’t a race where you want to blindly ride chalk. Context and value still matter.

Longshots Can and Do Hit

Sarava’s 70-1 stunner in 2002 is still the poster child for Belmont chaos, but there have been other big prices that delivered. When the race lacks a clear standout, longshots become more viable. If there’s a scenario where the pace collapses or a few favorites underperform, an overlooked runner can absolutely steal this one.

Expected Race Scenario

The 2025 Belmont Stakes at Saratoga is expected to unfold in classic pace-dependent fashion, with the early fractions likely to come in brisk around 23.4 seconds for the opening quarter mile. Rodriguez is the obvious pace setter. He’s the only true frontrunner in the field and has wired races before, so there’s little doubt he’ll be sent right from the jump. Crudo figures to press from second. He’s naturally forward and enters off two frontrunning wins, though he doesn’t need the lead to be effective. Uncaged may show some tactical speed and slot into third just behind the leaders. If Todd Pletcher uses him as a rabbit for Crudo, there’s a chance he forces the issue early and puts pressure on Rodriguez into the first turn.

Sitting just off the top trio, Journalism and Sovereignty are likely to find ideal stalking trips in fourth and fifth. Both runners prefer to settle mid-pack and conserve energy before making their moves later. Behind them, Hill Road and Baeza will take up spots near the rear. Heart of Honor, who has no early speed, is expected to trail the field early.

As they move down the backstretch and approach the half-mile mark in around 47.2 seconds, the race dynamics begin to take shape. Rodriguez still controls the tempo but may feel pressure from Crudo or Uncaged, depending on how aggressively either is ridden. If Uncaged challenges, the pace could heat up. If he tucks in, things may settle into a more moderate rhythm. Meanwhile, Journalism and Sovereignty will be cruising comfortably in stalking position, likely saving ground and preparing for their move. Baeza and Heart of Honor remain at the back, waiting for the right moment to unleash their late kick.

The real action starts on the far turn. Rodriguez tries to kick away but Crudo stays with him. Journalism ranges up three-wide and begins to apply serious pressure. Sovereignty follows, searching for room just behind. Hill Road starts a steady grind. Baeza tips out and begins a strong, eye-catching run. Heart of Honor is still last but is starting to gear up.

At the top of the stretch, the early pace starts to unravel. Rodriguez fades, worn down by early pressure and the stretch in distance. Crudo tries to dig in but gets overpowered late. Journalism takes command in the upper stretch and opens up a clear lead. Sovereignty gives chase but can’t quite close the gap. Baeza is flying and gets up for third, with an outside shot at second if the pace collapses. Heart of Honor passes tired horses but lacks the acceleration to reach the top three. Hill Road keeps grinding to a mid-pack finish. Uncaged fades after playing his early role in shaping the race.

The most common finish order based on our simulation data matches this scenario. Journalism takes the win. Sovereignty finishes second. Baeza rallies for third. Crudo hangs on for fourth. Rodriguez finishes fifth, followed by Hill Road, Heart of Honor and Uncaged.

That’s the chalk scenario, and if it happens, we won’t make much money in wagering. But I’ve been around horse racing enough to know that chaos can happen. In the event that Journalism and Sovereignty get stuck or even flatten out, we could look to Baeza, Crudo, Hill Road and Heart of Honor as horses to play together.

Of course, we could also have a sloppy track with rain in the forecast for Saratoga Saturday. We already know Journalism, Sovereignty and Baeza can handle wet conditions, as they all hit the board at the Kentucky Derby, but what about the rest of the field? None of the other five horses have run on a sloppy track, but we can use their Tomlinson ratings to give us some insight. Crudo (408) and Hill Road (400) immediately stand out. While Uncaged is also over 400, I’m not as convinced it’s an upgrade given hist turf/synthetic pedigree lean and lesser stamina. As for Heart of Honor, the Tomlinson rating doesn’t paint the most favorable picture at 318. Meanwhile, Rodriguez is perhaps the biggest downgrade in wet conditions with a lowly 268 Tomlinson rating.

Belmont Stakes Betting Strategy

There’s a good chance this race is chalk, especially if the weather holds off. In that scenario, there’s really no benefit to betting Journalism to win. At the time of this writing, the public bet him down to 6-5. Playing those odds is a losing proposition over the long term, so in this scenario, it’s best to go after the exotics.

Chalk Exactas

$1 Exacta 7 with 2, 3, 5, 6 ($4 total wager)
$5 Exacta 7 with 2
$5 Exacta 7 with 6
$2 Exacta 2 with 7
$2 Exacta 6 with 7
$1 Exacta 5 with 7

Chalk Trifectas

$1 Trifecta 7 with 2, 6 with 2, 5, 6 ($4)
$1 Trifecta 7 with 2, 6 with ALL ($12)
$1 Trifecta 7 with 5 with 2, 6 ($2)
$1 Trifecta Box 5, 6, 7 ($6)

Chalk Superfectas

$0.10 Superfecta 7 with 2, 6 with ALL with 1, 8 ($2.40)
$0.10 Superfecta Box 2, 5, 6, 7 ($2.40)
$1 Superfecta 2 with 7 with 6 with 5

But I also acknowledged above that chaos could happen. If you think Journalism and Sovereignty could disappoint, it might be wise to go after the bigger bucks with some chaos wagers. Here, Rodriguez and Crudo will factor heavily into our betting strategy. For what it’s worth, my strategy will lean toward chaos if we get a dry track. I’ll have wagers for a sloppy track in the next section.

Chaos Win Bets

$10 on 5 and 6

Chaos Exactas

$2 Exacta Box 1, 5, 6 ($12)
$2 Exacta 1, 5, 6 with 8 ($6)

Chaos Trifectas

$0.50 Trifecta Box 1, 5, 6, 8 ($12)
$1 Trifecta 1, 5, 6, 8 with 1, 5, 6, 8 with 7 ($12)
$1 Trifecta 1, 5, 8 with 6 with 7 ($3)
$1 Trifecta 5, 6 with 5, 6 with 7 ($2)
$1 Trifecta 5 with 1 with 8

As we saw last year in the Belmont, a wet track could completely shake up the field. Yes, the top three horses can handle the slop, but we could also elevate Crudo in this scenario. Here’s a betting strategy for a wet track:

Wet Track Win Bets

$20 on 1 and 5

Wet Track Exacta Bets

$5 Exacta 7 with 1, 2, 5, 6 ($20)
$3 Exacta 1, 5 with 6, 7 ($12)
$2 Exacta Box 1, 5, 6 ($12)
$1 Exacta 1, 5 with 8 ($2)
$2 Exacta Box 1, 8 ($4)

Wet Track Trifecta Bets

$1 Trifecta 7 with 1, 5, 6 with ALL ($21)
$1 Trifecta 1, 5 with 1, 5 with 6, 7, 8 ($6)
$0.50 Trifecta Box 1, 5, 6, 8 ($12)
$1 Trifecta Box 1, 5, 8 ($6)

Wet Track Superfecta Bets

$0.10 Superfecta 7 with 1, 5, 6 with ALL with 8 ($1.80)
$0.10 Superfecta Box 1, 5, 7, 8 ($2.40)