How to Bet the 2025 Kentucky Derby

The Run for the Roses is here and its time to ready up our Kentucky Derby Betting guide. Saturday we’ll have the 151^st running of the Kentucky Derby. The Derby is always a tricky race to bet, as you not only have very young horses, but you also have a massive 20 horses on the track.

That may seem intimidating, but I have something that can potentially help you pinpoint who to place your bets on in the Debry.

Years ago, I came across a forum post from a poster called MoneylineExpress that outlined a 10-step process that whittled down the 20-horse field to just a few viable contenders. Horse racing systems are a dime a dozen and usually don’t work. But to my surprise, this process nailed Animal Kingdom as one of the three horses who could win the 2011 Kentucky Derby. A $2 win bet on Animal Kingdom paid $43.80, so needless to say, the process always stuck out to me.

Over the years, I’ve used this process to identify my Derby win bets. While the winners haven’t always been longer shots like Animal Kingdom, the process has worked in nine of the last 10 running of the roses. The one exception came in 2019 when Country House won as a 65-1 longshot in the slop thanks to the disqualification of Maximum Security. The process isn’t foolproof, but it’s pretty darn good. So, let’s dive into the 10 steps. First, here’s a look at the field with the jockey and trainer in parentheses along with their opening line odds:

2025 Kentucky Derby Betting: The Field

1. Citizen Bull (Martin Garcia, Bob Baffert) 20-1
2. Neoequos (Flavien Prat, Saffie Joseph Jr.) 30-1
3. Final Gambit (Luan Machado, Brad Cox) 30-1
4. Rodriguez (Mike Smith, Bob Baffert) 12-1
5. American Promise (Nik Juarez, D. Wayne Lukas) 30-1
6. Admire Daytona (Christophe Lemaire, Yukihiro Kato) 30-1
7. Luxor Cafe (Joao Moreira, Noriyuki Hori) 15-1
8. Journalism (Umberto Rispoli, Michael McCarthy) 3-1
9. Burnham Square (Brian Hernandez Jr., Ian Wilkes) 12-1
10. Grande (John Velazquez, Todd Pletcher) 20-1
11. Flying Mohawk (Joe Ramos, Whit Beckman) 30-1
12. East Avenue (Manuel Franco, Brendan Walsh) 20-1
13. Publisher (Irad Ortiz Jr., Steve Asmussen) 20-1
14. Tiztastic (Joel Rosario, Steve Asmussen) 20-1
15. Render Judgment (Julien Leparoux, Kenny McPeek) 30-1
16. Coal Battle (Juan Vargas, Lonnie Briley) 30-1
17. Sandman (Jose Ortiz, Mark Casse) 6-1
18. Sovereignty (Junio Alvarado, Bill Mott) 5-1
19. Chunk of Gold (Jareth Loveberry, Ethan West) 30-1
20. Owen Almighty (Javier Castellano, Brian Lynch) 30-1
21. Baeza — AE (Flavien Prat, John Shirreffs) 12-1

How to Bet on the 2025 Kentucky Derby

Step 1

Remove all horses who did not run at least 1 1/8 mile in their last prep race. Horses who have not run at least this distance will have a tough time with the 1 1/4-mile distance in the Derby. Every winner for the last 30 years has run at least 1 1/8 mile in their final prep race before the Derby.

Eliminate:

None

Step 2

Remove all horses who did not finish at least fourth-or-better in its final prep race. No horse has won the race with a finish worse than fourth in its last prep race going back to 1962. The 2019 winner Country House finished third in its final prep race before the Derby, but often the winner is coming off a win in its final prep race.

Eliminate:

15 Render Judgement — It finished 5^th in the Blue Grass Stakes on April 8^th
20 Owen Almighty — It finished 6^th in the Blue Grass Stakes on April 8^th

Step 3

Remove all horses who did not race at age 2. All the horses in the Kentucky Derby are 3 years old. While that may seem quite young, it’s extremely rare to see a horse step onto the track at three and compete at this level.

Eliminate:

10 Grande – First race was on January 11, 2025.

Step 4

Remove all horses who were not first or second with a furlong to go in either of their last two starts before the Derby. Sure, Giacomo won the roses from back in sixth with a furlong to go in 2005, but those sorts of comebacks are rare in the Derby. The winner will almost always be up front with a furlong to go.

Eliminate:

3 Final Gambit – Was 5th with a furlong to go both of its last two races.
9 Burnham Square — Was 4th and 5th with a furlong to go in last two races.
11 Flying Mohawk – Was 4th and 3rd with a furlong to go in last two races.
13 Publisher – Was 3rd and 5th with a furlong to go in last two races
18 Sovereignty – Was 4th and 3rd with a furlong to go in last two races

2025 Kentucky Derby: The Contenders

1. Citizen Bull (Martin Garcia, Bob Baffert) 20-1
2. Neoequos (Flavien Prat, Saffie Joseph Jr.) 30-1
4. Rodriguez (Mike Smith, Bob Baffert) 12-1
5. American Promise (Nik Juarez, D. Wayne Lukas) 30-1
6. Admire Daytona (Christophe Lemaire, Yukihiro Kato) 30-1
7. Luxor Cafe (Joao Moreira, Noriyuki Hori) 15-1
8. Journalism (Umberto Rispoli, Michael McCarthy) 3-1
12. East Avenue (Manuel Franco, Brendan Walsh) 20-1
14. Tiztastic (Joel Rosario, Steve Asmussen) 20-1
16. Coal Battle (Juan Vargas, Lonnie Briley) 30-1
17. Sandman (Jose Ortiz, Mark Casse) 6-1
19. Chunk of Gold (Jareth Loveberry, Ethan West) 30-1
21. Baeza — AE (Flavien Prat, John Shirreffs) 12-1

The field is now whittled down to 12 horses. From here we will no longer be eliminating any horses. Instead, we’re going to award a point to the horses for each criteria box they check.

Step 5

Give a point to any horse who won a race of at least one mile at 2 years old.

Point to:

1 Citizen Bull, 5 American Promise, 7 Luxor Café, 8 Journalism, 12 East Avenue, 14 Tiztastic, 16 Coal Battle, 17 Sandman

Step 6

Give a point to any horse who ran one of its two fastest Beyer speed figures in its last race.

Point to:

1 Citizen Bull, 2 Neoequos, 4 Rodriguez, 5 American Promise, 6 Admire Daytona, 7 Luxor Café, 8 Journalism, 12 East Avenue, 14 Tiztastic, 16 Coal Battle, 17 Sandman, 19 Chunk of Gold, 21 Baeza     

Step 7

Give a point to any horse who ran in a graded stakes as a 3-year-old before April.

Point to:

1 Citizen Bull, 2 Neoequos, 4 Rodriguez, 5 American Promise, 8 Journalism, 12 East Avenue, 14 Tiztastic, 16 Coal Battle, 17 Sandman, 19 Chunk of Gold

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Step 8

Give a point to any horse who won a graded stakes race.

Point to:

1 Citizen Bull, 4 Rodriguez, 6 Admire Daytona, 8 Journalism, 12 East Avenue, 14 Tiztastic, 16 Coal Battle, 17 Sandman

Step 9

Give a point to any horse whose finish in each of its last two races was no worse than its place with one furlong to go in the race.

Point to:

4 Rodriguez, 7 Luxor Café, 8 Journalism, 17 Sandman, 19 Chunk of Gold

The Results: Best Bets at the 2025 Kentucky Derby

Journalism 5
Sandman 5
Citizen Bull 4
Rodriguez 4
East Avenue 4
Tiztastic 4
Coal Battle 4
American Promise 3
Chunk of Gold 3
Luxor Café 3
Neoequos 2
Admire Daytona 2
Baeza 1

Step 10

Winning horses nearly always have four or five points from the previous five steps. We can toss American Promise, Chunk of Gold, Luxor Café, Neoequos, Admire Daytona and Baeza from the pool. In our final step, we’re going to look at the Beyer speed figures for this group. To eliminate any one-hit wonders, we’re going to take the second-highest Beyer figure for each of the seven remaining horses.

Journalism 102
Rodriguez 100
Citizen Bull 96
East Avenue 95
Sandman 92
Tiztastic 89
Coal Battle 88

While Beyer numbers are far from a perfect metric, we typically don’t see a horse within five points of the top speed take the roses. That makes this a two-horse race at the top with both Journalism and Rodriguez with multiple triple-digit Beyer races.

Rodriguez won the Wood Memorial from the front, wiring the field. That’s a tall task in the Derby, as it can be difficult to get to the front and even more challenging to hold the lead through all 10 furlongs. Journalism has deployed a stalking strategy in each of its four wins, including last month’s Santa Anita Derby. That’s a much more favorable approach in the run for the roses.

As for the remaining horses, Citizen Bull figures to be out front early as a pacesetter. Same with East Avenue. Coal Battle is a stalker, but it may not have enough pace to be up in the mix for the stretch run. Sandman and Tiztastic are closers. While there should be plenty of speed up front in this race, we rarely see closers get up for the win. Having said that, it’s a good idea to include both horses on the bottom of your exotics. Given the profiles, we’re going to toss Coal Battle and use the remaining six horses in our wagers.

I also have to acknowledge that last year’s winner Mystic Dan did not make the final cut in the 2024 edition of this article. I did have that horse in the exotic wagers, but we missed an opportunity to place a win bet on it. Why did we exclude it? Well, the main reason was the horse was lightly raced as a 2-year old. Simply put, that may not be as much of a factor today as it once was. For that reason, we’re going to include Burham Square and Grande in our win bets. Burham square ran three times as a 2-year-old but is coming off an impressive win in the Blue Grass. Grande only has three races to its name, but the horse impressed with a second-place finish at the Wood Memorial and has impressive connections with trainer Todd Pletcher and jockey John Velazquez.

While Rodriguez did come in just Journalism in Beyer figures, it’s going to be very tough for a frontrunner to win this race given all the upfront speed in the field. We’re going to toss it from our win bets and stick with:

8 Journalism
9 Burham Square
10 Grande

Historically, the Kentucky Derby has favored horses with a blend of strong recent form, tactical speed and proven 2-year-old foundation. Horses who win or finish strongly in 100-point prep races like the Santa Anita Derby, Florida Derby and Blue Grass Stakes tend to outperform those coming out of lesser or slower-paced preps. In this year’s field, Journalism fits the historic mold perfectly. He has won four straight races, including the Santa Anita Derby, and enters with the highest Beyer Speed Figure in the field. Horses with triple-digit Beyers and tactical running styles have accounted for the majority of Derby wins in the last 20 years.

Trainer trends also favor Journalism. Michael McCarthy is experienced at handling high-caliber stakes horses, and while he is not a household name like Todd Pletcher or Brad Cox, he has quietly built a strong record in graded stakes. By contrast, Grande will be saddled by Pletcher, who has won two Kentucky Derbies and is always a major factor with well-prepared horses. From a jockey standpoint, Umberto Rispoli gets his first Derby mount on Journalism, which introduces an unknown, but his riding style suits the horse’s ability to relax and finish. Veteran riders like John Velazquez (aboard Grande) and Jose Ortiz (on Sandman) bring deep Derby experience, which can be an edge in a chaotic 20-horse field.

Post position has historically impacted Derby outcomes, especially for early speed types. Horses breaking from the rail (post 1) and far outside (post 17 and beyond) tend to be compromised either by getting shuffled back or hung wide early. This year, speed types like Citizen Bull drawing inside may face pressure to gun early or risk losing position, while stalkers in mid-pack slots, like Journalism and Burnham Square, are likely to secure ideal trips. The combination of post, pace scenario, and proven Grade 1 success continues to make the favorite a logical choice in most recent Derbies, and the setup in 2025 supports that pattern once again.

There you have it. The process has given us five horses, but an off track would change our betting ticket. Let’s put together one for each weather scenario Here’s how we could approach this race on a small budget and a larger budget for a fast track:

$25 Budget

$15 win bet on 8
$5 win bet on 9, 10

$100 Budget

$40 win bet on 8
$20 win bet on 9, 10

Now, I should say that the above process works for identifying candidates who can win the race, but it’s not an approach to use for exotics. Sure, we can use 8, 9 and 10 as our key horses, but simply boxing them up in exactas and trifectas isn’t an optimal approach. Here, we’ll need to sprinkle in horses who didn’t meet our criteria above because every year we see those horses hit the board. Here are the other horses I’ll be using in exotics:

Exactas – in addition the key horses, add the following:

4 Rodriguez
14 Tiztastic
17 Sandman
18 Sovereignty

Trifectas – add to the key horses and exacta horses:

1 Citizen Bull

Here are some sample wagers based on the above picks:

$2 exacta box: 8,9, 10 ($12 total bet)
$2 exacta box: 4, 8, 10 ($12)
$2 exacta: 8,10 /9, 14, 17, 18 ($16)
$1 trifecta: 8, 9,10/8, 9, 10/ 1, 14, 17, 18 ($36)
$1 trifecta: 8/9, 10, 14, 17, 18/9, 10, 14, 17, 18 ($25)
$1 trifecta 10/8, 9, 14, 18/1, 8, 9, 14, 17, 18 ($24)
$0.50 trifecta: 8, 9, 14/8, 9, 10, 14, 18 /8, 9, 10, 14, 17, 18 ($45)
$0.50 trifecta box 8, 9, 10, 14, 18 ($30)