Favorite NFL Win Total Over/Unders for 2025: Post-Draft Edition

The 2025 NFL Draft is over, which means it’s time to update our favorite 2025 NFL win total picks. The Eagles, Chiefs, Ravens and Bills are the favorites to lead the league in the regular season. The Browns, Giants, Jets and Titans are the betting favorites to finish with the fewest wins.

This article will run through all NFL win totals for the 2025 season and give you the early edge for the best bets.

(All odds from BetMGM.)

2025 NFL Win Totals

Los Angeles Chargers Over 9.5 Wins 

+100

I love the Chargers even more after the NFL Draft. Los Angeles addressed each of the team’s three biggest needs with a three-down running back, defensive line reinforcements and a pass catcher. The first year of Jim Harbaugh was a huge success for the Chargers. Los Angeles posted an impressive 11-6 record (with four one-score losses) and a playoff berth. Los Angeles has already signed Najee Harris and Mike Williams and re-signed edge rusher Khalil Mack. Harbaugh has built this roster to beat the Chiefs, something the Chargers almost did twice in 2024. To get Los Angeles at single-digit wins with plus-money is a true gift. I think the Chargers go over this number and win the AFC West in 2025. 

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Jacksonville Jaguars Under 7.5 Wins 

+100

I’d fading the Jaguars in Year 1 of Liam Coen’s coaching tenure. Jacksonville has several needs, and questions linger about quarterback Trevor Lawrence. They did trade up for the most dynamic player available in Colorado’s Travis Hunter. Will that make an immediate impact in Year 1? Doubtful, and the Jaguars did not address their biggest needs on defense. The Jaguars ranked 26th overall in team DVOA, including 31st on defense. Jacksonville was only 4-13 last season, including 3-3 in the division. I struggle to see a five-win improvement.

Houston Texans Over 9.5 Wins 

+110

The Texans had a superb draft, receiving an overall grade of an A and a fantasy grade of an A+ in my recent article. Same division, but different rationale for the third year with quarterback C.J. Stroud. The Texans dealt with a rash of offensive injuries but still squeaked out 10 wins after a 5-1 start. I believe in DeMeco Ryans’ defense and expect an improved (and healthier) Houston offense with the addition of two explosive Iowa State wideouts in Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel. 

New Orleans Saints Under 6.5 Wins

-145

I didn’t like the Saints before the draft, and I certainly like them less without a true starting quarterback. The juice dropped from -110 to -145 on this under, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the win total drop to 5.5 shortly. Head coach Kellen Moore will get New Orleans going in the right direction, but not in Year 1. The Saints have questions on both the offensive and defensive line, and have stiff competition from the Buccaneers, Falcons and an improved Panthers roster. New Orleans did well with their nine draft picks, but I don’t see an immediate improvement given their questions at quarterback. 

Pittsburgh Steelers Over 8.5 Wins 

+100

The Steelers had a superb draft, addressing every part of their needs except quarterback. Assuming Pittsburgh signs Aaron Rodgers or trades for Kirk Cousins, this is a Super Bowl-caliber roster. Pittsburgh reloaded the defense across the board, led by the run-stopping bull Derrick Harmon Iowa running back Kaleb Johnson is immediately fantasy viable in all formats. The Steelers finished 10-7 with an offense that wasn’t much better than 2024, ranking just 19th overall in DVOA. I expect Pittsburgh to sign Aaron Rodgers and this line to skyrocket to 9.5 wins very quickly. 

Chicago Bears Over 8.5 Wins 

+110

Last year was only the second time in the last 22 seasons the NFL did not see a team go from last to first in at least one of the divisions. The Chargers and Commanders came close, and I expect the Bears to be the team to break that trend this season. New head coach Ben Johnson has loaded up this offense with two key rookie additions in tight end Colston Loveland and wide receiver Luther Burden III. Chicago’s defense was already solid, and I expect regression from Detroit after losing both coordinators, including Johnson himself. Chicago lost seven games by five points or fewer.