PGA DFS Hot Takes for the 2025 Houston Open

The PGA Tour’s Florida Swing is over already? Man, this season is flying by. This week is the ultimate Masters prep, which can be seen in the ATG signal more than anything else. It’s also the reason why the field is so strong, including World No. 1 and World No. 2. This slate is largely about how to approach the dramatic dropoff in talent behind Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy.

Course Fit: The 2025 Texas Children’s Houston Open

It’s worth noting that the move to March made putting significantly more predictive last year than it had been in the years prior (when the event was in November). It’s hard to say if that was a real change or just randomness, so I will be trying to find some solid GPP Scores that would benefit from putting becoming more predictive than expected.

As I mentioned earlier, this massive around-the-green signal is exactly what we see at Augusta. It stems from similar skill-heavy shots. Tight-lie chip and pitch shots where it’s important to get contact, trajectory, power, and spin all correct in order to get the ball close. If only Hideki were here!

Hot Takes for the 2025 Texas Children’s Houston Open

1. Scottie Scheffler is the best spend-up

I reserve the right to swap out this Hot Take if needed later! However, I feel pretty confident in this call at the moment. Scottie has the best GPP Score at 28.0% projected SE rostership, and I think there’s a real chance he ends up far lower than that.

So far this year, Rory McIlroy has been the better player. Rory has two wins, Scottie only has one top-five. Scottie has only surpassed 3.0 true strokes gained once, as well. He just hasn’t been the same guy and unlike the start of last year, putting woes can’t fully explain the lack of wins.

Between that, a $1k difference between the two, and a lack of value for people to feel confident in, I see a strong path to reverse steam on Mr. Scheffler. If I’m wrong, we still get the best player in the world at fine rostership (he’s more likely to win than anyone other than McIlroy is to finish top five). And if I’m right and he comes in around 15%, he’s the best play of the season.