1978 Player DVOA: Roger Staubach, Dominating Rookies, and the Ghost

Yesterday, I unveiled the team DVOA ratings for the 1978 season, the newest season we’ve been able to break down and add to our database. Today, we’re finishing up our look back at 1978 DVOA ratings by looking at player DVOA and DYAR. You will now find all of these numbers available for download (along with playoff stats as well) on the DVOA downloads page for subscribers.

QUARTERBACKS

Just like in 1979, the top passer in both DYAR and DVOA was 36-year-old Roger Staubach. Nobody in the league adapted to the new liberalized passing rules quite as well as Staubach, although he played well throughout his thirties. Staubach made the Pro Bowl for five straight seasons from 1975 to 1979 and led the NFL in PFR’s adjusted net yards per attempt for three straight seasons from 1977 to 1979. Staubach’s 1978 season wasn’t quite as good as his 1979 season, but he gets bumped up by schedule adjustments because he played a lot of good pass defenses. Staubach even had a good year on the ground, finishing third with 93 rushing DYAR on 33 carries for 196 yards and a touchdown.

Terry Bradshaw ranked first in VOA and second in YAR without opponent adjustments, but he played an easy schedule so he gets knocked down a bit. Dan Fouts led the NFL in net yards per pass but gets knocked down a little bit by seven fumbles on sacks. Archie Manning had a strong season but also ranks a bit higher in DYAR because he had a lot of attempts.

Here were the top 10 quarterbacks of the year by passing DYAR:

Frank Tarkenton with 32 interceptions, and he finishes in the DYAR top 10 anyway! Some of the reason for that is that he led the NFL with 598 pass plays in his final season at age 38. I would love to go back and see how many “interception-worthy throws” Tarkenton actually had, because that interception total is nuts. Thirteen of Tarkenton’s interceptions came in the fourth quarter, but most of those came in the first half of the fourth quarter, and not necessarily when the Vikings were behind. Kenny Stabler had 30 interceptions and no other quarterback was above 23.

The other quarterback in the top 10 for DVOA was Bob Griese of the Dolphins, but he only had 253 pass plays.

The worst quarterbacks of 1978 were the two quarterbacks of the San Francisco 49ers, Steve DeBerg (-425 DYAR) and Scott Bull (-472 DYAR). I noted yesterday that the 49ers had one of the worst team pass offense DVOA ratings ever. DeBerg, of course, went on to have a very long NFL career. He had been a 1977 10th-round pick of the Dallas Cowboys before coming to the 49ers, but as a rookie he completed just 45.4% of passes with an 8:22 touchdown-to-interception ratio and just 5.2 yards per attempt. Scott Bull was a sixth-round pick in 1976 who got the most playing time of his career in 1978. He only had 121 pass attempts but completed just 39.7% of his passes with 1 touchdown, 11 interceptions, and 5.4 yards per attempt. He never threw another regular-season pass in the NFL.

Ken Anderson had a surprisingly poor season in 1978, ranking 25th out of 28 qualifying quarterbacks with -22 DYAR. Anderson only completed 54.0% of his passes and had 10 touchdowns with 22 interceptions.

Dan Pastorini (11th), Ron Jaworski (14th), Doug Williams (18th), Joe Thiesmann (19th), and Stabler (20th) all came out around the middle of the league.

On the ground, the standout quarterback was Steve Grogan of the Patriots, which makes sense after what I wrote yesterday about just how much the Patriots offense ran the ball. Grogan’s 260 rushing DYAR is the fifth-highest total ever for a quarterback, behind Randall Cunningham in 1990, Lamar Jackson in 2019, Russell Wilson in 2014, and Michael Vick in 2006. Grogan had 74 carries for 513 yards after you take out the kneeldowns, plus five rushing touchdowns. Jim Zorn was second in rushing yardage for quarterbacks with just over half of what Grogan had (274 yards).

RUNNING BACKS

Earl Campbell won the Heisman Trophy for the University of Texas in 1977. He was the first overall selection in the 1978 draft by the Houston Oilers. And then he proceded to lead the NFL in rushing (and in rushing DYAR) for three straight years from 1978 to 1980.

Campbell is one of four running backs to lead the league in rushing DYAR as a rookie, along with Ickey Woods in 1988, undrafted Thomas Rawls in 2015, and Ezekiel Elliott in 2016. (2015 was emphatically not a good year for star running backs, and Rawls’ league-leading total of 216 DYAR is easily the lowest figure for the league leader in a non-strike year.)

Campbell’s 1978 season is nowhere near as good as his 1979 and 1980 seasons. In 1979 and 1980, Campbell came close to Terrell Davis’ 1998 record for the most DYAR by a running back on the ground. In 1978, Campbell “only” was the best running back in the league rather than having one of the five or six greatest rushing seasons ever. Campbell was notoriously useless as a receiver, though. He caught only 12 passes for 48 yards as a receiver, worth -50 receiving DYAR. Four of his 12 catches lost yardage.

The No. 2 back in rushing DYAR was Wilbert Montgomery of the Eagles. Montgomery was a sixth-round pick the year before, 1977, and only carried the ball 45 times as a rookie. Then he became the starter in 1978 and averaged 4.7 yards per carry. However, he was awful as a receiver, just used more often than Campbell. Montgomery finished last among all running backs with -92 receiving DYAR, catching 34 passes for 195 yards and a touchdown with a 64% catch rate.

No. 3 in rushing DYAR was a one-year wonder, David Sims of the Seahawks. Sims was a seventh-round pick in 1977, a round later than Montgomery, and had 99 carries as a rookie with less than 4.0 yards per carry. Then as the starting fullback in his second year, Sims had 752 yards with 14 rushing touchdowns and a 59% success rate. Three games into his third season in 1979, Sims suffered a neck injury that ended his career.

Walter Payton, who led the NFL in carries and was second in yards behind Campbell, was fifth in DYAR but only 15th among qualifying running backs in DVOA due to a lower 41% success rate.

Here’s a look at the top 10 rushers of 1978 by DYAR:

The really surprising finish in rushing DYAR for 1978 was by Tony Dorsett of the Cowboys, the first overall pick of the 1977 draft. In his second year, Dorsett had 289 carries for 1,317 yards and seven touchdowns. That yardage total was third in the league behind Campbell and Payton. However, Dorsett was 47th out of 63 qualifying backs with just 5 DYAR. The big problems were fumbles (11 of them to lead all backs) and an easy schedule that took him from 71 YAR to 5 DYAR. Yes, I noted above that Roger Staubach had a tough schedule in 1978, but Dorsett had an easy schedule. The Cowboys played a number of teams where the pass defense was much better than the run defense, such as the Giants twice (12th pass, 25th run), the Cardinals twice (17th pass, 23rd run), and the Packers (third pass, 20th run).

By the way, Dorsett’s totals here are different from his totals in the official NFL stats because he was mistakenly credited with an 8-yard run when he recovered a Staubach sack-fumble 10 yards behind the line of scrimmage against Philadelphia in Week 15 and then advanced it 18 yards.

Mike Thomas of the Redskins was last among qualifying backs with -110 DYAR. Thomas had 161 carries for just 533 yards, just 3.3 yards per carry, plus three rushing touchdowns.

Other running backs you might be curious about:

• John Riggins, Redskins: 122 DYAR (19th)
• Franco Harris, Steelers: 67 DYAR (31st)
• Chuck Muncie, Saints: -5 DYAR (51st)
• Chuck Foreman, Vikings: -28 DYAR (57th)
• O.J. Simpson, 49ers: -54 DYAR (59th)

As for receiving numbers, the top running back was Rickey Young of the Vikings. He had played for the Chargers for his first three seasons, then was dealt to Minnesota in 1978 for All-Pro guard Ed White. Young had 257 receiving DYAR which is one of the top 25 receiving seasons by a running back since 1978. His total of 88 receptions set a new NFL record for receptions by a running back, since broken of course. He had a 79% catch rate with 704 yards and five receiving touchdowns. Preston Pearson, a 33-year-old veteran for the Cowboys, was second among running backs with 205 receiving DYAR. Lydell Mitchell, a former Pro Bowler for the Colts who replaced Young in San Diego, was third among running backs with 194 receiving DYAR.

WIDE RECEIVERS

John Jefferson was drafted 14th overall out of Arizona State by the San Diego Chargers in 1978 and proceded to lead the NFL in receiving DYAR as a rookie. He is the only rookie to finish first in DYAR among wide receivers. (Randy Moss and Michael Thomas each finished second in 1998 and 2016, respectively.) Jefferson also led the NFL with 13 touchdown catches. Steve Largent of the Seahawks, who finished tied for first in receiving yards, was second in DYAR. Harold Carmichael of the Eagles was third. Then there’s a big gap between the top three wide receivers and the rest of the league.

Here are the top 12 wide receivers by DYAR:

Check out Wesley Walker of the Jets with a league-leading 24.4 yards per reception! It truly was a different time in 1978. Walker had 10 different catches over 40 yards apiece but only two catches that gained less than five yards. He was also the intended receiver on 11 interceptions. That sounds like some kind of record but it wasn’t even the most in 1978. Freddie Solomon of the 49ers was the target on 14 interceptions. Solomon was also the lowest wide receiver in my metrics at -137 DYAR. He had a 36% catch rate, snagging 31 of 87 targets for 458 yards and two touchdowns. (Note that he doesn’t get extra dinged for the interceptions, as I count interceptions the same as other incomplete targets for receivers.)

Ken Payne of the Eagles had a 25% catch rate, which is almost the worst ever for a wide receiver with at least 50 targets. The only season to come out lower is Willie Gault with the 1988 Raiders at 24%.

The Baltimore Colts had a wide receiver, mostly a return man, named Marshall Johnson who was targeted 12 times in 1978 and only had one catch.

Some other ranks in DYAR for well-known wide receivers:

• Wes Chandler, Saints: 125 DYAR (17th)
• James Lofton, Packers rookie: 113 DYAR (20th)
• Drew Pearson, Cowboys: 35 DYAR (39th)
• Ahmad Rashad, Vikings: 18 DYAR (42nd)

TIGHT ENDS

Hall of Famer Dave Casper, in the prime of his career, was clearly the top tight end of 1978 according to my metrics. Casper was second in the league with 852 yards but was tied for the lead with nine touchdowns and had a 70% catch rate that was almost unheard of in the late 1970s. (One qualifying tight end was higher, Keith Krepfle of the Eagles, but he less than half as many targets as Casper.) Writers at the time clearly agreed with DYAR, as Casper was first-team All-Pro for the third time.

The two other tight ends with over 800 receiving yards were second and third in DYAR: Riley Odoms of the Broncos and Henry Childs of the Saints. Here are the top 10 tight ends by DYAR:

The lowest tight end in DYAR was Jim Mitchell of the Falcons, although Walter White of the Chiefs would be lower without opponent adjustments. Mitchell had 32 catches for 361 yards and two touchdowns with just a 44% catch rate against an easy schedule, for -125 DYAR. White had a reasonable 55% catch rate but his 42 catches for 341 yards and one touchdown worked out to -106 DYAR.

Two surprisingly low names among the tight ends: Russ Francis of the Patriots had -29 DYAR to finish 27th among 33 qualifying tight ends. Right behind him was rookie Ozzie Newsome, the 23rd overall pick by Cleveland who would go on to the Hall of Fame. Newsome had -31 DYAR as a rookie but surprisingly added on 52 rushing DYAR because he carried the ball 13 times for 96 yards and two touchdowns. Newsome only carried the ball five more times for the entire rest of his career after 1978.