NBA Game of the Day, 2/28: Celtics vs. Cavaliers

Happy Friday! We celebrate the end of the week and the end of the month with a jam-packed slate of NBA action. I wouldn’t have believed this if you told me that I’d be typing it before the season, but I’m excited to watch the Detroit Pistons play as just one-point underdogs to Nikola Jokić and the Denver Nuggets. Speaking of surprises, the Portland Trail Blazers face the Brooklyn Nets in a game that actually matters for the playoff seeding.

We’ve also got the battle for Los Angeles between the Lakers and Clippers. It should be a great night of basketball, but the very best game is a preview of what I believe will be the Eastern Conference Finals this season. The Cleveland Cavaliers head to Boston to face the Celtics in a must-watch game that will teach us a lot about each team. Here are my thoughts on the game and my best bets.

Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics

Current Line – Celtics -1.5, 233.5
My Projection – Cavaliers 115, Celtics 114
Key Injuries – Jrue Holiday is out. Jaylen Brown, Kristaps Porziņģis and Luke Kornet are questionable. 

Cleveland Cavaliers/Boston Celtics Under 233.5 

-110, FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM

The Boston Celtics have been on a tear, reminding us of what they’re capable of after a middling start to the season. They’ve won 10 of their last 12 games with an average margin of victory of 9.4 points per game. That’s almost a point higher than their season average and closer to what we saw them do last season. It’s tough for teams coming off a title to play their best all season. They have a target on their back, which means they get their opponent’s best effort every night. Champions also know that they’ve reached the top and only need to muster that level of performance at the season’s end, not before the All-Star break. They seem poised to at the very least make the Eastern Conference Finals again and maybe even win their second championship in a row, but that doesn’t happen for a few months. Tonight, they are missing one of their most important players and could be without a few more. If everyone were healthy, they’d be much bigger favorites. Instead, I think the market has priced this correctly with a spread of two points or less.

The Cleveland Cavaliers have the best record in the league and have been particularly good against the league’s best teams. They are 7-3 against the top three seeds in each conference and have covered in eight of those 10 games. The Cavaliers seem to raise their level against better opponents but struggled last time they played the Celtics. Boston grabbed a 13-point lead after the first quarter and held onto it throughout the game. Things could be much different given how the injury report shakes out, but for the time being I can’t advise that we bet on Cleveland even though I think the Cavs win this game. If Kristaps Porziņģis can’t play, I’ll likely find a way to back the Cavaliers, but we have to wait until we know that for sure. Again, I think Cleveland wins regardless, but I only project it to win by one point, which is in line with the market given how close the spread is to zero.

The bet I’m taking now is the under on the full game total. If Porziņģis and Brown play, I make the total 229, which offers a big enough edge to bet it now. If either, or both, of those guys can’t play, this total should be much lower. Both squads have elite defenses and both play at a pace of 100 possessions per 48 minutes or less. These teams know that they are likely to meet in the postseason, which should give this game a playoff feel. That means we should see them use more of the shot clock to get the best shot possible, and the pace should slow down to a crawl once we get to the high-leverage possessions of the fourth quarter. I like the under quite a bit and only see the position improving for us if the injury report goes our way. Let’s bet under 233.5 for this game.

Looking into player props, our NBA Prop Tool at FTN is showing some nice edges on this game, and there is one in particular I like a lot. 

Evan Mobley 2+ Blocks 

+150, FanDuel, DraftKings

Mobley is one of the front-runners to win the Defensive Player of the Year, and for good reason. He’s a very good perimeter defender and an excellent rim protector, which is a rare combination. His long wingspan allows him to disrupt passes, and more importantly, block shots. He’s blocked two or more shots in seven of his last 11 games and had 2+ blocks against the Celtics earlier this season. Our model at FTN projects him to have two blocks tonight and would price this prop at deeper than -125. At +150, we’re looking at an expected value of over 40%, which makes this a great bet for us to make.

You can see all my picks and my record in the FTN Bet Tracker. If you have any questions about other games, drop them in the #nba-betting channel of the FTN Discord and tag me @noopschristenson. I’ll be sure to get back to you ASAP.