NBA Game of the Day, 2/12: Warriors vs. Mavericks
Alex Christenson
When I first heard the Genesis couldn’t be played at Riviera CC, I was afraid it would move to a course we didn’t have any data on, therefore rendering the Course Fit Model useless. Fortunately, we’re returning to Torrey Pines this week, and thus we have a strong model we’re very familiar with! The GPP Scores were outstanding last week, and I’m liking what we’re seeing so far. In fact, they may be too good at the moment! There are so many great GPP Scores that I’m having a hard time selecting the actual Hot Takes.
Course Fit: The 2025 Genesis Invitational
Torrey Pines is all about distance and short games, both of which I think could be even further amplified by the soft, wet conditions this week. The rough isn’t long, but my hunch is that they had to shorten it because of how thick it is with the rain. That 22% boost on iron play is also noteworthy. This is definitely an event where we can find course fit specialists.
Hot Takes for the 2025 Genesis Invitational
OK, so here’s the plan — since so many guys have great GPP Scores, my Hot Takes are going to avoid the best GPP Scores. You don’t need me to tell you that Adam Scott is a great value when his GPP Score is significantly better than any other in that range. Instead, I’m going to point out the guys that I may feel stronger about than some alternate options even if they have slightly worse GPP Scores once rostership is finalized. To that end…
1. Byeong Hun An is being underrated by the model
I made this same case last week because An is driving it better so far in 2025 and up until last week, his short game was phenomenal once again. Those points remain, but I also think there’s a teaching point here about the strokes gained statistics. Strokes gained stats are calculated from two points of data — the distance from the hole and the lie (fairway vs. bunker vs. rough, etc.). On numerous occasions last week, Benny missed in the worst possible spot. Close to the hole, but leaving an impossible short game shot. Examples include being long and left of the back pin on No. 12 Saturday, long and left of the back-left pin on No. 15, and other shots of that nature.
Importantly, because the SG stats don’t know how tough the short game shots were, his short game looks worse than it was and his iron play looks better than it was. Because short game is so important this week, he’s being underrated even further as a result. But beyond that, it also means his iron play was close to being great. If all of those small misses are just slightly better swings this week (or if he misses in smarter spots), he could post some low numbers.
Plus, this week’s course is a better fit since distance matters even more and accuracy matters less than usual instead of more than usual.
2. Jake Knapp is an SE fade
This is a tough one to write because he really does seem to be playing better golf again and he’s a good fit for the course. All of his best performances last year came on courses where distance was more predictive than usual and accuracy less predictive than usual. The problem, oddly enough, is that he’s minimum price. I’m already projecting him for more rostership than anyone else in the industry and I still think it could be low. There’s a decent chance that he reaches 25% in the $200 SE and 30%-plus in nosebleed stakes. Given how prone he is to ejecting, that’s simply a must-fade, as it’s an opportunity to greatly leverage a huge portion of the field.
3. Davis Thompson is ready to break out
Few golfers are more consistent right now in the entire world than Thompson when it comes to driving + ATG. Week in and week out, we know he’s going to do those two things well. The problem for him so far this year is that his iron play and putting has been off. But that’s not his norm. They’re not long-term strengths by any means, but they’re streaky. He is absolutely going to weeks where at least one of them is good, and when he does, he’ll contend. Why not this week?
4. Gary Woodland is all the way back
His speed is back! Even when he played well last year, he wasn’t gaining what he used to gain distance-wise. Now he is, and his iron play has been outstanding. Not only that, but we’re talking about a mid- to long-iron specialist who now gets to play a course that emphasizes those areas while diminishing wedge play.
He’s gained strokes in six consecutive rounds, his short game and putting hasn’t been costing him strokes (a big change from last year), and this improvement is a continuation of what we saw in the fall from Gary. I just think he’s back and he’s one of the few players under $7k this week who has the capability of putting a lot of circles on the card (birdies and eagles).
Final Thoughts
It’s always important to check the finalized rostership and GPP Scores before finalizing your lineups but it’s especially important this week. I think we could see a lot of rostership movement Wednesday night, especially as it relates to the top end of the board (which of course has trickle-down effects into everything else).
