Most Aggressive Coaches of 2024

Aggressiveness Index is a stat we introduced at our old site that measures how often NFL head coaches go for it on fourth down. We compare this not to when coaches should go for it based on EPA modeling but rather when coaches actually do go for it based on NFL history. Our current AI numbers use a baseline built with coach decisions since 2018, since that was a year that going for it on fourth down jumped leaguewide.

You’re not going to have a hard time guessing this year’s top head coach in terms of Aggressiveness Index. It’s Dan Campbell of the Detroit Lions, who is consistently one of the league’s most aggressive head coaches. Sometimes, he even goes for fourth downs when the models say to kick. Campbell had a 1.95 AI this year, the top number among head coaches who served for the full season. (Thomas Brown, who coached the Bears over the final five games, had an AI of 2.19.)

Some of this year’s more aggressive head coaches are the names you will recognize. Sean McDermott of the Bills was second. Nick Sirianni of the Eagles and Doug Pederson of the Jaguars were in the top 10. Other names are surprises. Brian Daboll of the Giants went from an AI of .80 last season to an AI of 1.41 this season, which ranked him third among the full-season coaches. Raheem Morris was surprisingly agressive in his first season with the Falcons.

John Harbaugh, who has historically been among the most aggressive coaches but was surprisingly conservative in 2023, bounced back with an AI of 1.02 that finished in the middle of the pack.

Another surprising name in the middle of the pack is Dan Quinn of the Commanders. We’ve heard a lot over the last couple weeks about the Commanders’ success on fourth downs, and they’ve certainly been aggressive in the postseason. However, in the regular season, Quinn had an AI of 1.13 which puts him 13th among the 29 full-season coaches.

It won’t shock any New England Patriots fans that Jarod Mayo was last in the league with an AI of .70 that finished a rounding error behind Jim Harbaugh. Harbaugh had a career AI of .89 in San Francisco — and that’s with the pre-2018 baselines, which were much less aggressive overall — so it isn’t a surprise to see him at the bottom of the league either. For Patriots fans who are curious, Mike Vrabel was historically among the more aggressive coaches on fourth down when he was with Tennessee.

Kevin Stefanski is an interesting coach to find in the middle of the pack because he was so aggressive on fourth-and-1. Stafanski went for it on 14 out of 15 qualifying fourth-and-1s, the highest rate in the league. (I say “qualifying” because Aggressiveness Index does not count certain fourth-down opportunities based on the score and the game time.) However, Stefanski was less likely to go for it on longer fourth downs in “no man’s land” between the 34 and the 39, and therefore he ends up with an AI of 1.10 instead of something higher.

Last year’s numbers are here.

Aggressiveness Index is computed by Jim Armstrong. I’ve removed Thomas Brown and Robert Saleh, who each only had about 30 qualifying opportunities.