NFL Week 5 FTN Staff Bets
FTN Staff
There’s a timeless racing adage that says, “You never want your horse to get out too early.”
It’s a reference that denotes if you’re too fast out of the gate, a premature demise is inevitable.
In fantasy football, many roster managers take an opposite view — focus on winning tomorrow instead of tallying victories today. It’s a foolhardy approach, one steeped in the egotistical perception your team will avoid catastrophic injuries, untimely benchings and general ineptitude all the while meeting your lofty expectations. As any grizzled fantasy veteran will tell you, unpredictability always reigns supreme.
Focusing on the near-term, which players could sprint off the blocks and blaze a blistering trail for fantasy teams this fall? Here are my top five:
Austin Ekeler, RB, Los Angeles Chargers
Weeks 1-5: at CIN, KC, CAR, at TB, at NO
Deja vu all over again? Bullet Bill from MarioKart, Ekeler raced past the competition Weeks 1-5 last season. With Melvin Gordon sulking at home due to a contract dispute, the product from tiny Western State lit the fantasy football world ablaze. During that stretch he amassed 116.6 total yards per game on 19.6 touches per contest while scoring six touchdowns. Joshua Kelley and, if healthy, Justin Jackson will spell him sporadically, but L.A.’s Swiss Army Knife is in a prime position to carve up the competition. His first three matchups are against defenses that ranked inside the top-10 in fantasy points allowed to rushers.
Naysayers have puzzlingly questioned whether Ekeler fits Shane Steichen’s pistol-based scheme, an unnecessary inquisition. Remember, with Steichen calling the shots Weeks 9-17 last season, the rusher — in a secondary role, mind you (12.6 touches per game) — netted 99.0 total yards per game, four TDs, 11.46 YAC per reception and 3.55 YAC per attempt. Beasting is all he knows. Another top-five output to begin the year is very attainable.
Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers
Weeks 1-5: at NYG, DEN, HOU, at TEN, PHI
The nagging pain in Big Ben’s throwing arm, a sensation he admittedly felt for 13-14 years, has disappeared. Tommy John surgery, which promptly ended the decorated passer’s 2019 season after it barely began, alleviated the discomfort. Suffice it to say, the veteran QB is fully prepared to grip, rip and shred defenses early and often this season. If you scored him at his bargain basement QB18, you’re going to be pleased with the results. Remember, in 2018 he averaged 320.6 pass yards per game and tossed 34 touchdowns, tallying a 112.9 passer rating on throws beyond 20 yards.
Here’s a #TeamHuevos take: Roethlisberger finishes No. 3 or better in total fantasy points Week 1. The Giants are solidly in the running for friendliest defense. Down to James Bradberry, Montre Hartage and slot man Grant Haley at CB and without S Xavier McKinney, this group has “pushover” written all over it. Roethlisberger, blessed with JuJu Smith-Schuster, rising star Diontae Johnson, James Washington and Eric Ebron, will come out firing. Houston also presents another smash spot. Load up.
Marquise Brown, WR, Baltimore Ravens
Weeks 1-5: CLE, at HOU, KC, at WAS, CIN
Pounding protein shakes and pressing plates this offseason, Brown reportedly tacked on 23 pounds of muscle. The increased strength combined with his still devastating speed could lead to an early season detonation. Baltimore’s opening stanza is chock full of patsies. The Browns boast a respectable pass D, but the other opponents listed above are projected to finish in the bottom 10 among secondaries.
In his rookie season, Brown occasionally burned DBs and became an end-zone fixture for Lamar Jackson. He only enticed an 18.9% target share and failed to crack 600 yards, but his red-zone prominence (30.8% red-zone target percentage) and WR8 rank in fantasy points per route exhibit his WR2 promise. Volume, as always, is critical. In the league’s most run-heavy attack from 2019, can he generate even 75-80 targets? It’s difficult to forecast, but he’s always one catch away from a profitable fantasy day. Bank on several of those occurring throughout September and October.
Raheem Mostert, RB, San Francisco 49ers
Weeks 1-5: vs. ARZ, at NYJ, at NYG, PHI, MIA
When fantasy managers hear “RBBC,” their minds immediately drift to a dark, sinister place filled with cackling images of Bill Belichick and psychotic knife-wielding clowns. Damn those psychotic knife-wielding clowns. The imagery is nightmarish, but trotting out Mostert as your RB2 or flex could lead to blissful numerics. The Eagles are a tough-to-crack bank vault defensively, but the Cards, Jets, Giants and Dolphins are the antithesis of unbreakable. Mostert, a likely 13- to 15-touch-per-game contributor, is in position to rain down crooked numbers.
Behind San Francisco’s robust offensive line, the journeyman planted firm roots late last season. Overall, he was the picture of efficiency. On 32.2% of the opportunity share he forced a missed tackle 20.5% of the time, slotted at RB7 in YAC per attempt (3.50) and finished RB2 in yards created per carry. Some have called him a one-year wonder, but the 28-year-old’s long, strange NFL trip could write another unexpected chapter with plentiful 12-plus fantasy point tallies straight away.
Boston Scott, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
Weeks 1-5: at WAS, LAR, CIN, at SF, at PIT
The amount of hyperbolic text banged out by this blathering scribe about a mini-Snickers-sized RB often drafted in the double-digit rounds has reached Moby Dick unabridged proportions. But similar to the sperm whale in the classic seafaring story, Scott (though more pygmy-like in size) is a battering ram from the deep who could capsize the competition.
Clearly the latter pair of matchups above aren’t appealing. San Francisco and Pittsburgh each feature unbending fronts and should rank highly in fewest rush yards allowed. The Rams, anchored by maneater Aaron Donald, are also formidable. However, Washington and Cincinnati present golden opportunities. Plus, Scott’s slipperiness in space poses matchup problems for any opponent. Recall Weeks 14-17 working in tandem with Sanders, he averaged 87.5 total yards per game, a ridiculous 11.5 YAC per reception and 3.97 YAC per attempt. Locked into a secondary role, which should yield 10-12 touches per game, he could experience a volume uptick if the incumbent’s tender hammy remains a hindrance.
