Bowl Slate Preview (Jan. 9)

Most bowl games have completed at this point, and the focus is now on the semifinals of the College Football Playoff. It’s all about the Orange Bowl matchup between the Penn State Nittany Lions and the Notre Dame Irish Thursday. The breakdown for the Cotton Bowl will be out Friday morning. and both games are going to be fascinating to watch.

I will break down the top DFS targets for the Orange Bowl while also providing you with any advantageous bets as well. Let’s dig in and look at every aspect of this semifinal matchup.

Orange Bowl (CFB Playoffs Semifinal)

Notre Dame vs. Penn State

Notre Dame -1.5, O/U 45.5

I’ve been adamant that Notre Dame has “team of destiny” vibes, and they were able to outlast the Georgia Bulldogs in the quarterfinals despite struggling with their vertical offense. That’s a good sign for fans and backers of the Irish for sure. The Bulldogs have had problems containing mobile QBs, and that was prevalent once again as Riley Leonard made just enough plays to lead his team to the next round.

A flip was switched for Notre Dame after their early season loss to NIU. Most of the industry wrote them off and expected their playoff journey to be over but the coaching staff stopped trying to make Leonard into a traditional pocket passer and let him do what he does best, run the football. They’re far more dangerous with Leonard utilizing his mobility, and he now has 831 yards/15 TDs on the ground while throwing for 2,383 yards/18 TDs.

Leonard will be Leonard, but with a nagging knee injury slowing down RB1 Jeremiyah Love, they will need Jadarian Price to step up in a major way. With Love ailing, Price has toted the rock 21 times in the two playoff games, but he has generated a mere 69 yards with those touches. To his credit, he has racked up over 700 yards and 7 TDs this year so he is more than capable of producing with additional opportunities. Those numbers are better than many RB1s out there. They are categorizing Love as “good to go,” but he is clearly not going to be 100% and it’ll be more of a committee approach against a strong defensive front.

The Nittany Lions were able to contain Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty and held him to a season-low 106 rushing yards. Notre Dame is at their best when running the football but they’re going to have to use a more balanced approach on offense in order to win this game. Quick hitter passes from Leonard are going to be a key part of the game plan, and that means slot receiver Jordan Faison will be peppered with targets.

Faison has emerged as one of Leonard’s favorite targets in the passing game over the last month of the season. In two playoff games, he has caught 11 of his 13 targets for 135 yards. Other weapons include tight end Mitchell Evans (34-308-3), Beaux Collins (37-458-3) and Jaden Greathouse (29-359-1). 

PSU may be without one of their defensive stars in Abdul Carter, a projected early first-round draft pick. He is dealing with a severe upper-body injury that caused him to miss the second half of their quarterfinal game. As a true game-time decision, we won’t know until the game is about to kick off, but this is the kind of prospect who can impact the game on his own. The Nittany Lions defense will still be stout but it’s less intimidating without Carter.

On the offensive side, QB Drew Allar will have to be more efficient as a passer in this spot. He did enough in their win over Boise State, throwing for 171 yards and 3 touchdowns but he completed less than 60% of his passes for a third straight game. That simply won’t work against the elite Notre Dame secondary.

Mackey Award winner Tyler Warren (98-1158-8) has kept many defensive coordinators awake at night and it will be interesting to see Notre Dame’s plan for defending him. The all-world TE will likely be blanketed which will push other pass-catchers such as Omari Evans (20-403-5) and Harrison Wallace (47-735-4) into the spotlight.

The 1-2 punch of Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen will be crucial for PSU as always in the backfield. Allen rushed for 134 yards against Boise and 70 yards/2 TDs against SMU. Singleton has rushed for 75-plus yards in each playoff game while scoring a TD in each as well. The running games of Georgia and Indiana were a complete non-factor against Notre Dame so it will be the toughest test yet for the dynamic duo.

If you like physical football, this is the game for you and it’s going to be a real chess match. Taking away the run from Notre Dame will put Penn State in a position to punch their ticket to the championship. Both programs will look to wear each other down and we will see who makes a mistake first. A broken play or an explosive gainer out of nowhere could be what ultimately determines the winner of this matchup. With that said, I’m looking for Riley Leonard to uncork a better-than-expected game throwing the football and the “team of destiny” gets one step closer to a national championship.

DFS Targets

Riley Leonard
Jordan Faison
Mitchell Evans
Jadarian Price 
Kaytron Allen
Nicholas Singleton
Tyler Warren
Omari Evans

Best Bets

Notre Dame ML (-115, FanDuel)
Riley Leonard Over 164.5 Passing Yards (-114, FanDuel)
Jordaan Faison Over 42.5 Receiving Yards (-114, FanDuel)
Kaytron Allen Over 67.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-114, FanDuel)
Kaytron Allen 25+ Receiving Yards (+850, FanDuel)