Steelers at Ravens: DVOA Preview

On paper, this shouldn’t really be close. The Ravens were the top team in DVOA this season, with one of the best regular-season ratings since 1978. They only had two games with negative DVOA despite five losses. The Pittsburgh Steelers were just 15th in DVOA this season, losing their final four games in a row. However, these teams split their season series, and they tend to play each other close, so this may be more of a game than first appears.

The Steelers beat the Ravens 18-16 in Week 11, as Chris Boswell hit six field goals while Justin Tucker missed two of them. The Ravens couldn’t stop the Steelers on third-and-1 with 57 seconds left. However, Russell Wilson had no touchdown passes with one pick and four sacks.

The Ravens then won at home in Week 16 by a 34-17 score. They pulled away in the second half with the final 17 points of the game including a pick-six by Marlon Humphrey.

The 2023 Ravens, who were even higher in total DVOA than the 2024 Ravens, lost to the Steelers twice by a 17-10 score, although they were sitting starters including Lamar Jackson in the second loss.

The biggest and most important trend for this game is the improvement of the Baltimore Ravens pass defense since Week 11, when they sat Eddie Jackson and Marcus Williams and made Kyle Hamilton a full-time safety. From Week 11 onwards, the Ravens ranked second in defensive DVOA behind Philadelphia and first in pass defense. There are a series of splits that look like Russell Wilson should be able to take advantage of the Ravens defense until you look at those splits only for Weeks 11-18.

The Ravens ranked 29th in DVOA and 32nd in yards allowed to WR1, and George Pickens didn’t even play in the second matchup between these teams. However, the Ravens are 12th in DVOA against WR1 since Week 11.

Russell Wilson excels at the deep pass and was also second in DVOA among all qualifying quarterbacks in passes to the middle of the field. The Ravens ranked 28th against deep passes but are fifth since Week 11. The Ravens ranked 24th against passes in the middle of the field but are seventh since Week 11.

Wilson was third in DVOA against the blitz this year but the Ravens ranked sixth in defense when blitzing since Week 11.

There’s one interesting area where the Ravens did not get better after Week 11, and that is preventing success on third-and-long. The Ravens are only 18th in defensive DVOA on third-and-long since Week 11, and the Steelers are very good in these situations (fifth in DVOA) so they aren’t necessarily trapped and forced off the field even if the Ravens prevent them from gaining yardage on first and second downs.

Brandon Stephens of the Ravens was one of the most targeted cornerbacks in the NFL but also covered more routes than any other defender. He had a positive (a.k.a. below average) coverage DVOA, while Marlon Humphrey and Nate Wiggins were much better.

Donte Jackson and rookie Beanie Bishop Jr. surprisingly came out ahead of Joey Porter Jr. in coverage DVOA for the Steelers, but all three were above average. Jackson has missed some recent games but practiced in full this week.

The Ravens ranked second in Explosive Run Rate while the Steelers ranked 22nd allowing Explosive Runs.

Based on Adjusted Line Yards stats, the Ravens are best when running to the left while the Steelers are best at preventing runs to the right.

The Ravens had both the league’s best offense and the league’s best defense running with stacked boxes.

The Steelers limited Lamar Jackson to 68 rushing yards in two games. Pittsburgh allowed a league-low 63 scramble yards this season, with every other defense allowing at least 140 scramble yards.

Teams blitzed Lamar Jackson a ton this year (third-highest blitz rate on offense) but he was fifth in DVOA against the blitz. So it’s a way to limit him, but it just makes him very good instead of MVP-level.

The Baltimore run defense was only 12th in Adjusted Line Yards but they ranked first at preventing both second-level (5-10 Yds) and open-field (10+ Yds) runs, and they were second in preventing short-yardage success (just 54% conversions). The Steelers offense was average in Adjusted Line Yards and slightly below average in the other three categories.

Penalties were a big issue for the Ravens this year. The Ravens had 153 penalties, including declined and offsetting, compared to 119 for their opponents. The Steelers, on the other hand, had only 127 penalties for themselves and 146 for their opponents.

The Steelers have a clear special teams advantage in this game, especially on field goals (where Justin Tucker has been struggling all year while Chris Boswell was the best kicker in the league this season) and on net punting.