Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
The NFL season is right in the midst of the playoff push. As you’ll see across FTN, there will be numerous pieces of content, as well as our terrific statistical tools available to all subscribers. If you haven’t already joined our Discord server, I certainly recommend doing so, as our experts generally find time throughout the week for open discussions, as well as to answer any questions you may have.
This article will cover a trio of my favorite first-look NFL bets for this week’s slate of games. All three plays will additionally be located in our Bet Tracker, but all the analysis surrounding each play can be found below.
Jerome Ford Over 47.5 Rushing Yards
(-113, FanDuel Sportsbook)
This is a puzzling line to me. Nick Chubb is out for the season, meaning this is Jerome Ford’s backfield. Last week, Ford played a season-high 80.3% of Cleveland’s offensive snaps and took 11 of 15 carries in a game that saw the Browns playing from behind virtually the entire game, as well as 17-0 down at the half. Cleveland comes into Week 17 as home underdogs by a touchdown, so while they could find themselves in a negative gamescript once again, we at least know Ford’s floor as far as touches goes. If this is a closer game, Ford could very well see 15 or more carries. Even if he hits his floor of 10-11 carries, he’d need to average 4.8 yards per carry at 10 attempts. Per the FTN StatsHub, the Dolphins are a pretty average team against the run, ranking 20th in yards per carry against (4.3), allowing the 14th-highest rate of 10-plus-yard carries at 12.1%. The Dolphins do allow the third-most yards after contact (2.7) in the NFL and Ford ranks sixth in the NFL among qualified players in yards after contact per carry (3.3).
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