NFL Survivor/Eliminator Picks: Week 17

Anyone still alive in their NFL Survivor/NFL Eliminator contests (or the much smaller group of us who are tasked with writing about the contests) has burned through exactly half of the teams in the NFL, and obviously most of the good ones. That’s very hard!

For my advice, I have used (deep breath) the Cardinals, Falcons, Ravens, Bills, Bengals, Broncos, Lions, Packers, Texans, Chiefs, Chargers, Vikings, Eagles, Seahawks, Buccaneers and Commanders so far. The only current playoff teams left available to me are the Rams and Steelers, with potential playoff teams the Colts and Dolphins also sitting out there. It’s getting light!

That’s why it gets serious this time of year, and anyone who can make it through all 18 weeks (not me, notably) has done some excellent brain work for the season, with that brain work getting tougher as the year goes on.

This is my NFL Survivor pick for Week 17. As always, I’m starting with all 32 teams and eliminating them bit by bit until I get to my final few contenders and, ultimately, my choice of the week.

NFL Survivor Picks for Week 17

Wednesday/Thursday/Saturday

I don’t know how strongly I feel about Week 17 Saturdays counting as “too weird to select” for this exercise, so consider those tenuous picks here, and I reserve the right to circle back to them if need be.

Arizona Cardinals (@ LA Rams)
Baltimore Ravens (@ Houston)
Chicago Bears (vs. Seattle)
Cincinnati Bengals (vs. Denver)
Denver Broncos (@ Cincinnati)
Houston Texans (vs. Baltimore)
Kansas City Chiefs (@ Pittsburgh)
Los Angeles Chargers (@ New England)
Los Angeles Rams (vs. Arizona)
New England Patriots (vs. LA Chargers)
Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Kansas City)
Seattle Seahawks (@ Chicago)

The only team from this list that has the golden combination of “I might pick them” and “I haven’t already picked them” is the Rams, and even in that situation they’re facing a plucky Cardinals team. So I’m probably going to stick to my guns on not using a pre-Sunday game. But I’m doing this as I go, so we’ll see.

But for now, that’s 12 down, and 20 teams to go.

They’re Too Bad

Easy eliminations — the teams who I wouldn’t feel confidently picking them to beat much of anyone, so there’s no real sense in dedicating much time to considering them.

Carolina Panthers (@ Tampa Bay)
Cleveland Browns (vs. Miami)
Dallas Cowboys (@ Philadelphia)
Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Tennessee)
Las Vegas Raiders (@ New Orleans)
New Orleans Saints (vs. Las Vegas)
New York Giants (vs. Indianapolis)
New York Jets (@ Buffalo)
San Francisco 49ers (vs. Detroit)
Tennessee Titans (@ Jacksonville)

The Raiders, Saints, Titans and Jaguars all playing one another this week is just mean, because those are very fun teams to target against in this exercise, only I can’t pick their opponents either. Just vacant games that I can’t do anything with.

Ten more gone, 10 to go.

Tough Matchups

The inverse of “They’re Too Bad,” this is where the opponent is too good (or at least too comparable to the team) for me to confidently go against them.

Atlanta Falcons (@ Washington)
Green Bay Packers (@ Minnesota)
Minnesota Vikings (vs. Green Bay)

Three more gone. Normally I pick both sides of a matchup (that’s why the “too comparable” phrase is up there), but while the Falcons are too good for the “They’re Too Bad” category, they certainly aren’t a consideration against Washington.

Three more gone. Seven left!

The Contenders

After the elimination process, we’re down to five teams:

Buffalo Bills (vs. NY Jets)
Detroit Lions (@ San Francisco)
Indianapolis Colts (@ NY Giants)
Miami Dolphins (@ Cleveland)
Philadelphia Eagles (vs. Dallas)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Carolina)
Washington Commanders (vs. Atlanta)

Some notes on our contenders here:

• As always, my pick is a unique-to-me pick, but I only use that for the final decision, because I don’t know if you’ve followed me so far. But for the record: I have already burned the Bills, Lions, Eagles, Buccaneers and Commanders so far. So I’m left from this list only the Colts and Dolphins.
• The good news is that every team in my list is either a playoff team or at least still in the running. You want good teams at this point, and I do still have a few.
• The Eagles would be an easy choice here if not for the injury to Jalen Hurts If you (a) have the Eagles available to you, (b) don’t made your pick until the weekend and (c) Hurts clears concussion protocol, sure, go nuts. But without any of those available to me, they can’t be the choice.
• The Buccaneers coming off a very deflating loss and facing a plucky Panthers team makes this game a much tougher choice than it looked a few weeks ago.
• I definitely think the Commanders win, but it is worth noting that picking a first-place team to lose does not feel good in this exercise.
• The Giants, Jets and Browns in particular looked barely functional in Week 16, which makes them handy opponents to have available.

The Pick

Each week, you’ll get my No. 1 selection and some honorable mentions.

Indianapolis Colts (@ NY Giants)

Do I feel good about taking Anthony Richardson on the road? Not really, no. But the Giants are not a functional NFL team right now, and they are extra incentivized to lose out and hold onto the first overall pick in next year’s NFL Draft. There’s a chance I regret this pick within the first few drives Sunday, but I just can’t see a way the Giants win another game.

Honorable Mention

Buffalo Bills (vs. NY Jets) — if you didn’t use them when I did
Miami Dolphins (@ Cleveland)

2024 Record: 13-3

Week 1: Bills (W)
Week 2: Ravens (L)
Week 3: Browns (L)
Week 4: Chiefs (W)
Week 5: Seahawks (L)
Week 6: Texans (W)
Week 7: Bengals (W)
Week 8: Broncos (W)
Week 9: Vikings (W)
Week 10: Chargers (W)
Week 11: Packers (W)
Week 12: Buccaneers (W)
Week 13: Commanders (W)
Week 14: Eagles (W)
Week 15: Cardinals (W)
Week 16: Lions (W)
Week 17: Colts