Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Now including Monday Night Football.
Patrick Mahomes is our best quarterback of Week 16 according to DYAR, even though he had just 260 yards passing and two touchdowns (one passing, one rushing). The big reason for that is opponent adjustments. The Houston Texans have the No. 1 pass defense according to DVOA, so Mahomes goes from 103 total YAR (which would rank fourth this week) to 165 total DYAR to lead the league.
In fact, Mahomes had the best game of any quarterback against the Houston Texans so far this season. No quarterback has put up more than 100 passing YAR against the Texans this year. The best day without opponent adjustment belonged to — this can’t be right, but it is — Mac Jones of the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 13 when he took over for an injured Trevor Lawrence early in the game. Jones averaged 7.3 net yards per pass without a sack or an interception, so he ended up with 89 YAR. That worked out to 137 DYAR because the opponent adjustments are a little different for different plays.
Here’s a look at how each quarterback has done against Houston this season. I’ve got both DYAR and YAR as well as both Net Yards per Pass and Success Rate.
| Player | Week | DYAR | YAR | NY/P | Suc% | TD | INT |
| Patrick Mahomes | 16 | 145 | 84 | 6.0 | 48% | 1 | 0 |
| Mac Jones | 13 | 137 | 89 | 7.3 | 38% | 2 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 3 | 117 | 73 | 5.6 | 45% | 4 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 9 | 99 | 52 | 5.7 | 44% | 3 | 0 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 4 | 72 | 25 | 4.6 | 44% | 2 | 0 |
| Jordan Love | 7 | 48 | -7 | 6.1 | 46% | 3 | 2 |
| Cooper Rush | 11 | 31 | -56 | 5.3 | 37% | 1 | 1 |
| Drake Maye | 6 | 14 | -36 | 5.8 | 47% | 3 | 2 |
| Anthony Richardson | 1 | 11 | -21 | 9.5 | 29% | 2 | 1 |
| Will Levis | 12 | 10 | -35 | 7.4 | 34% | 2 | 1 |
| Josh Allen | 5 | -8 | -46 | 4.1 | 19% | 1 | 0 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 13 | -9 | -21 | 4.1 | 10% | 0 | 1 |
| Jared Goff | 10 | -20 | -63 | 8.0 | 43% | 2 | 4 |
| Anthony Richardson | 8 | -70 | -119 | 3.9 | 22% | 1 | 1 |
| Caleb Williams | 2 | -97 | -162 | 3.4 | 35% | 0 | 2 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 15 | -116 | -176 | 4.0 | 37% | 1 | 3 |
The opposite of Houston is Jacksonville, the worst pass defense in the league this season. Just as the Texans have not given up a passing day worth at least 100 YAR, the Jaguars have given up 100 YAR six different times! Josh Allen is a great example of a quarterback who took advantage of the terrible Jaguars defense. He struggled against the Texans but had 8.8 net yards per pass with a 63% success rate against the Jaguars.
On the other hand, the NFL certainly is a weird week-to-week league where strange things happen. Sam Darnold had one of the best games all year against the Texans and the worst game of the year against the Jaguars, with 6.0 net yards per pass and three interceptions. The Jaguars only have five interceptions all season!
Here’s the same table as above, only now with every game against the Jaguars this year.
| Player | Week | DYAR | YAR | NY/P | Suc% | TD | INT |
| Jared Goff | 11 | 247 | 309 | 14.2 | 79% | 4 | 0 |
| Josh Allen | 3 | 128 | 188 | 8.8 | 63% | 4 | 0 |
| C.J. Stroud | 4 | 105 | 185 | 8.0 | 57% | 2 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 15 | 67 | 130 | 9.4 | 44% | 3 | 0 |
| Caleb Williams | 6 | 64 | 130 | 6.8 | 61% | 4 | 1 |
| Drake Maye | 7 | 41 | 112 | 6.7 | 50% | 2 | 0 |
| Jalen Hurts | 9 | 19 | 68 | 7.8 | 48% | 2 | 0 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 1 | 10 | 83 | 8.3 | 39% | 1 | 0 |
| Jordan Love | 8 | -28 | 14 | 9.4 | 43% | 0 | 1 |
| Joe Flacco | 5 | -33 | 64 | 6.8 | 42% | 3 | 0 |
| C.J. Stroud | 13 | -40 | 33 | 6.1 | 44% | 1 | 0 |
| Aidan O’Connell | 16 | -43 | 36 | 6.1 | 45% | 0 | 0 |
| Deshaun Watson | 2 | -80 | -11 | 5.1 | 32% | 0 | 0 |
| Will Levis | 14 | -133 | -67 | 4.5 | 37% | 0 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 10 | -152 | -83 | 6.0 | 49% | 0 | 3 |
And now for the best and worst players of Week 16 by DYAR…
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