College Basketball Best Bets (12/7)

College basketball’s Feast Week may be behind us, but conference play has begun and there are a plethora of tasty matchups to continue eating up this weekend. I hope you’ve been following along of late, because this past week of college basketball has been thrilling with some potential Final Four preview matchups with the number of ranked teams going toe to toe. This weekend might not feature as many, but there is still plenty to be excited for. Let’s jump right in.

Last Article: 2-1 | Season (Articles): 5-4 | Season (Overall): 25-22

College Basketball Best Bets

Kentucky vs. Gonzaga

Climate Pledge Arena (Seattle)
Gonzaga -4.5 | Total: 165

What a treat we have in this early season showdown as football starts to wane and basketball begins to wax. It’s good to see good basketball games scheduled for Saturdays again as Kentucky takes on Gonzaga in Seattle as a semi-home game for the Bulldogs. Before jumping in, can I just say how appreciative I am of Mark Few scheduling so difficult so early? Baylor, Kentucky, UConn and UCLA make for a gauntlet of non-con opponents, not to mention the Battle 4 Atlantis games. But let’s dive in.

Analytically speaking, Gonzaga is a top-five team in the country, ranked as such on KenPom, EvanMiya, Haslametrics and Bart Torvik. Their only loss so far was in overtime to West Virginia after falling apart late, but otherwise, they have been unstoppable, winning every game by no fewer than eight. Against West Virginia, Few’s squad only shot 33% (7-21) from deep, which isn’t bad but is important considering they are 69-3 over the last three seasons when shooting above 36% from three. It also didn’t help that they turned the ball over on 17% of their possessions, considering all other games they’ve been elite at ball control.

Going up against Kentucky, only one of those two things should be a problem. The Wildcats defense ranks 287th in forcing turnovers, but they have been elite defensively, limiting opponents to shooting shy of 26% from beyond the arc on the year. The Bulldogs have only faced one top-75 three-point defense, but that was West Virginia. You’d think Gonzaga would go inside considering their top-10 near-proximity shooting but Haslametrics projects just 28.5% of their shots to come inside the paint, six percent below the DI average.

For Kentucky, they have been shooting lights out, but their offense is only so sustainable and they’re coming off a 25.9% 3pt shooting night against Clemson. All their other games have come at home or on neutral court this year. The Wildcats are also due for regression defensively and don’t have a high free throw rate either.

The summary here is that offensively both teams appear due for some regression while both teams represent a top-10 perimeter defense. Neither squad will get many second-chance looks with both teams ranking in the top 25 at defensive rebound rate and each team should stay out of foul trouble, limiting any free points at the charity stripe. Both teams are run and gun offensively which may make it tempting to take the over. But I’m going the other way here and trusting neither team will be crazy efficient tonight.

Prediction

Gonzaga 82, Kentucky 77

Best Bet

Under 164.5 (-110, DraftKings Sportsbook)

Wisconsin at Marquette

Fiserv Forum (Milwaukee)
Marquette -7.5 | Total: 149

With both teams coming off a loss, this game feels imperative as a bounceback for both squads, each out to an 8-1 start on the young season. For Wisconsin, this stands out as their first road game. They’ve surprised already, jumping up to 11 in the AP Poll with wins over Arizona and Pittsburgh but came back down to earth against Michigan. John Tonje has slotted in well after transferring from Missouri, scoring 33 in the win over Pitt and 41 over Arizona. He draws fouls at the fifth-highest clip in the nation so Marquette will have to be disciplined to keep him from the charity stripe.

But the Golden Eagles have been surprisingly elite defensively early on, ranking sixth in KenPom defensive efficiency and forcing turnovers on nearly a quarter of the opponent’s possessions. It will be a fascinating battle of ball control as Wisconsin is a top-10 team at limiting turnovers offensively and they don’t grab offensive boards at a high clip. If Wisconsin can limit turnovers, it not only helps their offense of course but limits Marquette in the transition game as the number one ranked team in quick points off steals, per Haslametrics. But if the Golden Eagles are pickpocketing left and right, Wisconsin’s field goal rate will be in the cellar. My guess is that it will be somewhere in the middle.

This is a tough one to handicap as I see a wide range of outcomes. Both teams will shoot a high number of threes, so I would advise alts here, but Wisconsin has shown their ability to keep up with pace and limit opponents in transition with only 17% of opponent’s shots coming on the run. This spread is just too much considering how these teams line up.

Prediction

Marquette 74, Wisconsin 70

Best Bet

Wisconsin +7.5 (-110, FanDuel Sportsbook)

Iowa vs. Michigan

Crislet Center (Ann Arbor)
Michigan -8.5 | Total: 155.5

For some more Big Ten basketball we have what should be an awesome matchup in Iowa-Michigan. Both teams are coming off some serious resume-boosting wins with both starting off the season at hot 7-1. Michigan — my preseason darling — has impressed early on, led by their frontcourt transfers Danny Wolf and Vladislav Goldin. The duo accounted for 44 of Michigan’s 67 points in their victory over Wisconsin. Iowa will have their work cut out for them down low, but they line up relatively well with a top-75 near-proximity defense.

If the Wolverines want to attack this Iowa defense, it would be in the mid-range where Iowa’s defense ranks outside the top 300. But Michigan ranks 10th in rim-and-three rate and is only projected for 19 percent of their attempts to come from that distance, per Haslametrics. For Michigan defensively, it will be limiting Iowa’s pace as the Hawkeyes have crushed the three teams who have allowed a higher pace of play while their one loss came against Utah State, one of the slowest-paced teams in the country. Overall, Michigan ranks 85th in pace but defensively, they force opponents deep into the shot clock with a high percentage of turnovers along the way.

For Iowa to keep this game close they need to be lights out from deep, which is tough to trust on the road in the Big Ten against a top-50 perimeter defense. Going inside isn’t an easy solution either with Michigan’s big men and sizing, holding opponents to 41% inside the arc — the seventh-best mark in the country. Michigan might favor the analytically unsound mid-range look based on how these teams match up on paper to find consistent scoring and all those ingredients add up to an easy-bake under.