College Basketball Best Bets (11/30)

Saturday is the final day of the 2024 Players Era Thanksgiving Festival, with college basketball games all day long featuring some of the big-name teams around the sport.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at some of my favorite college basketball bets of the day, all from this big event.

College Basketball Best Bets

Alabama vs. Oregon

Alabama -5.5 | Total: 165.5

In Saturday’s Players Era Festival Championship, Alabama and Oregon face off in what should be an electrifying showdown. Alabama sits as a 5.5-point favorite with a ridiculous total of 165.5. Get your popcorn ready — this one should be a treat.

The Crimson Tide are one of the most battle-tested teams in the nation. In just seven games, they’ve faced five top-100 KenPom opponents, including three in the top 15. They edged Houston 85-80 in overtime and secured a 95-90 victory over Rutgers, overcoming Dylan Harper’s 37-point performance. Mark Sears leads a deep squad bolstered by freshman guard Labaron Philon’s stellar playmaking with a 33% assist rate and a frontcourt duo of Grant Nelson and Clifford Omoruyi anchoring the nation’s third-ranked offense. Alabama’s breakneck pace and effective shot selection — ranked 19th in rim-and-three rate — make them one of the most difficult offenses to prepare for, especially on short notice. Bama ranks top-50 in both percent of total FGA in transition and transition effective field goal percentage. Defensively, they are the single best DI team at limiting second-chance conversion looks while allowing nothing near the rim. It will be fascinating to see how Oregon attempts to limit its foe.

The Ducks counter with a well-rounded approach, ranking in the top 40 both offensively and defensively. Oregon sits undefeated at 7-0, coming off back-to-back double-digit wins. TJ Bamba’s all-around game and Nate Bittle’s defensive dominance, tallying multiple blocks in four straight games, have been key.

This game will likely hinge on the transition battle. Dana Altman’s squad ranks 14th with only 14% of opponents’ attempts coming in transition. The problem is when opponents get going, they shoot 66% from the field. If the Tide gets going, this one could be over quickly. But Oregon is disciplined at not sending their opponents to the charity stripe, where nearly a quarter of Bama’s points come from. Alabama’s ability to execute quick scoring runs could overwhelm Oregon. While disciplined in avoiding fouls and free points, Oregon’s offense may struggle against Alabama’s interior defense with few extra looks. It’s difficult to fade points in any game Alabama plays in but I’m comfortable doing so here.

Prediction

Alabama 82, Oregon 76

Best Bet

Under 165.5 (-105, FanDuel Sportsbook)

Houston vs. San Diego State

Houston -11.5 | Total: 128.5

In the Players Era Festival third-place game, Houston and San Diego State meet in a defensive slugfest. Houston is an 11.5-point favorite, with a total set at a mere 128.5. This is a wonderful game for anyone who hates offense.

Houston, preseason favorites across many analytical rankings, hasn’t been perfect this year, dropping two games to top-10 opponents. The absence of Jamal Shead has created a gap that replacement Milos Uzan has struggled to fill, fouling out in both top games without much of a performance leading up until that point. Still, Houston’s defense remains elite, ranking fourth in block rate and forcing turnovers on nearly 25% of possessions, ninth-best in DI.

San Diego State’s offense has been less impressive, sitting outside the top 100 in KenPom efficiency. The Aztecs also struggle with offensive rebounding and free-throw rate. However, their defense has kept them afloat, leading DI in block rate and ranking 11th in near-proximity defense.

What stands out in this matchup is the field goal attempt rate. SDSU turns the ball over at a fair rate and as mentioned doesn’t give themselves many extra looks at the rim or from the charity stripe. Defensively, SDSU forces tough looks, but they rank outside the top 250 in turnover and defensive rebound rate. Houston doesn’t have to be the most efficient shooting team tonight to earn the victory, but the Aztecs will need some mini-miracles to keep it close. But even with Houston’s expected high attempt rate, they still rank outside the top 100 in effective field goal rate and while they can be money from deep, they’ve struggled from beyond the arc at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in their last pair of games. I know the total is already low but first to 60 wins, and I’m not even sure SDSU will get there.

Prediction

Houston 65, San Diego State 56

Best Bet

Under 128.5 (-120, FanDuel Sportsbook)

Notre Dame vs. Creighton

Creighton -5.0 | Total: 145.5

For two teams currently struggling, this matchup feels pivotal, even though it’s still early in the season. Both Notre Dame and Creighton enter Saturday on three-game losing streaks, making it a critical opportunity to bolster their resumes. With potential tournament implications down the line, this game could hold more weight than it seems even though it’s only November.

The Bluejays’ recent struggles largely stem from Ryan Kalkbrenner’s inconsistent performances. The frontcourt standout has already posted two single-digit scoring games this season — a mark he only hit twice all of last year. Adding to their woes, point guard Steven Ashworth’s injury has significantly impacted the team’s flow. Creighton has slipped outside the top 50 in both offensive and defensive efficiency while their perimeter shooting has also taken a notable dip, dropping from 37% last season (25th nationally) to below 30% this year, ranking 273rd. Despite these issues, they remain dominant down low, boasting the second-best near-proximity defense and ranking fourth in defensive free throw rate, allowing little to no easy scoring opportunities.

On the other side, Notre Dame is showing signs of improvement under second-year coach Micah Shrewsberry. After starting the season strong at 4-0, they’ve hit a rough patch, suffering a disappointing home loss to Elon followed by narrow defeats to Rutgers in overtime and Houston. The absence of star guard Markus Burton has further complicated matters, altering the team’s offensive dynamics. However, players like Matt Allocco and Tae Davis have stepped up in Burton’s absence, while Braeden Shrewsberry continues to take high-volume shots from beyond the arc — it’s only a matter of time before he finds his rhythm.

Both teams show similar defensive strengths and weaknesses. Creighton ranks 19th in defensive field goal rate, with Notre Dame close behind in the top 100. However, neither team excels at limiting field goal attempts, with both ranking outside the top 340 field goal rate allowed. Additionally, neither squad forces turnovers effectively nor shines on the defensive boards. Creighton’s offense, which thrives on interior scoring with their fifth-best two-point shooting percentage, will likely rely heavily on perimeter shooting against Notre Dame’s inside-out defense.

In a game featuring two teams still searching for their identity, I expect a competitive and high-scoring affair. I’d recommend some alts here, but I’m willing to back the opportunity against teams trying to figure out their identities and ride the over in what should be a back-and-forth affair.