NFL Circa Millions Picks for Week 12

We’re getting late in the NFL season. Some teams will be loved and some teams will be hated. I can’t think of a year where there are more hated teams than this year. Some may provide value and others are just traps. I sometimes can’t seem to differentiate the two, but hopefully this week I’ll be able to sift through the rubble for the gems.

Week 12 Circa Millions Picks

Indianapolis Colts +7.5

There’s certainly no team more loved than the Lions right now, and even I took a stab at hating on the Colts last week and paid dearly for it. This game is the home Super Bowl of sorts for the Colts. Getting +7.5 at home is a good line; I’m seeing +7.5 with a lot of vigorish on the sharper sportsbooks whereas -7.5 pays the bettor plus money. With public action 95-5 on the Lions, I’ll take this spunky Colts team to lose by less than a touchdown.

Green Bay Packers -2

With the line at -3 at most sportsbooks, the line value is too good to pass up. I also just don’t think this 49ers team is nearly as good as the one last year that made the Super Bowl. I think lots of people will choose this pick due to the line value, but it’s OK to have a chalk pick, even this late in the season. Most of my other picks will be at least a little contrarian though.

Carolina Panthers +10.5

The Chiefs-Panthers game is definitely the match between the most respected and most pathetic franchise in football right now. I do think this Chiefs team has outperformed this year. The 9-1 Chiefs have a points differential worse than the 6-5 Broncos now. I just don’t see them blowing the Panthers out, even if they are the much better team. Our betting model agrees with me, and it views this as the best side bet edgewise of the week.