College Basketball Best Bets (11/16)

The college basketball season is back, injecting some much-needed excitement through everyone’s living room TVs as everyone gets set up to huddle in for winter. For those who think college basketball is a March-only sport, I’m sorry. You’ve missed some awesome games.

I’ll be here weekly to take you through the day’s matchups, providing previews and my best bets to go along with it. As always, be sure to shop around as college basketball odds vary across platforms, especially as you go down the line to the mid-major contests. There are some fantastic values every single day and the weekend slate is no exception. Friday was the day for marquee matchups this week, but there are still some games Saturday that are enticing to the college basketball faithful. Let’s dive in.

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College Basketball Best Bets

Wake Forest at Xavier

The two teams who arguably got the biggest “dark horse” categorical hype this preseason are set to square off. Both squads are looking to build on strong 2023-24 campaigns and break through with NCAA Tournament bids in what could be a matchup we look back on as one of the more important nonconference games of the season for both squads.

After a season marred by injuries, Xavier is poised for a big bounceback year. The Musketeers got back key pieces like Zach Freemantle and Jerome Hunter, who missed all of last season. Their roster has been bolstered by a talented transfer haul, including high-scoring wing Ryan Conwell and shifty combo guard Dante Maddox Jr. It hasn’t been the easiest transition as Xavier struggled to put away IU Indy — quite possibly the worst DI team. Most recently, Freemantle dazzled against Jackson State, shooting 4-of-5 from deep and tallying 21 points. Defensively, however, opponents have been able to get theirs from deep, shooting over 40%. Luckily, Wake Forest has been abysmal from three-point land, shooting under 26% on the season in 108 attempts.

Wake Forest entered the season with high expectations, but it hasn’t been all sunshine and rainbows despite a 4-0 start. Led by star guard Hunter Sallis, the Demon Deacons escaped with a victory against Michigan and USC Upstate. Michigan is a valuable win, but USC Upstate currently ranks 329th on KenPom. Their defense will have to be better than allowing 1.18 points per possession to one of the worst offenses in the country. I expect Wake Forest to lean on the offense that will push the pace and look to score all over the floor.

Sallis is the engine that makes the Deacons run, capable of taking over games with his scoring punch and playmaking ability. Complementing him is big man Efton Reid, who emerged as a dominant force in the paint as the season progressed a year ago. Xavier’s size and physicality in the frontcourt could pose problems for the Demon Deacons, but Wake should still have firepower and positive regression from deep. Ultimately, that’s what I imagine the game coming down to. Wake allowed USC Upstate to keep it close, because they only went 7-of-26 from deep and had 11 turnovers. Xavier’s defense sets up to allow plenty of looks from deep, so I would take alts here as this could be a blowout one way or another. The Musketeers boast the 11th-best interior defense early this season, so if Wake Forest isn’t doing much scoring down low and still missing shots, this could be a double-digit dub for the Musketeers. Overall, Given Xavier’s superior shooting, ball movement, experience, and home-court advantage, I see Xavier handling the Demon Deacons at the Cintas Center.

Prediction

Xavier 80, Wake Forest 73

Best Bet

Xavier -4.5 (-120, FanDuel Sportsbook)

Liberty vs. Florida Atlantic

Liberty and Florida Atlantic are set to square off on in the Field of 68 Tip-Off. For Liberty, the focus has been on rebuilding their defensive identity after last season’s struggles. Head coach Ritchie McKay is welcoming back a strong backcourt duo in Colin Porter and Kaden Metheny, who will be tasked with steadying the Flames’ offense. JUCO transfer Owen Aquino has been reliable so far, shooting 70% from inside the arc and leading Liberty to a 3-0 start.

On the other side, new Florida Atlantic head coach John Jakus has assembled an impressive collection of perimeter talent. The Owls will look to push the pace and overwhelm opponents with the scoring punch of transfers KyKy Tandy, Leland Walker and Ken Evans. Baba Miller’s arrival from Florida State also gives FAU an intriguing frontcourt weapon, but the Owls’ defensive cohesion will be crucial against Liberty’s methodical approach.

This matchup pits Liberty’s trademark pack-line defense against FAU’s up-tempo, guard-oriented offense. If the Flames can slow the game down, get back in transition, and force the Owls into a halfcourt battle, they may be able to grind out a victory. However, if FAU’s newly assembled backcourt clicks and creates easy transition opportunities, they have the firepower to outscore the Flames.

One of the biggest edges Liberty will have in this game is rest. With FAU coming off a thrilling double-overtime game against Charleston Friday night, the back-to-back might be tough on the players and coaching staff in terms of preparation. Florida Atlantic may lean more into the methodical pace of play Liberty will enforce, which could favor the Flames.

Ultimately, this clash of styles should make for an entertaining showdown. Liberty’s experience and defensive discipline versus FAU’s offensive talent and athleticism. It will be fascinating to see which team can impose its identity and emerge victorious. Given the quick turnaround and style whiplash FAU might experience going against Liberty, I imagine them getting off to a slow start. John Jakus is known for his offensive prowess so I’m riding the first half under, imaging Florida Atlantic can recover with halftime adjustments. This should be a great game that comes down to the final possession.

Prediction

Liberty 72, FAU 70

Best Bet

1H Under 69.5 (-110, ESPNBet)

South Carolina at Indiana

When Indiana hosts South Carolina Saturday afternoon, fans will witness a clash between two programs built in the frontcourt. Mike Woodson’s Hoosiers, armed with one of their most talented rosters in recent memory, face a South Carolina squad that surprised many with their NCAA Tournament appearance last season under Lamont Paris.

The game’s most compelling storyline centers on the frontcourt battle. Indiana brings a physically imposing duo of Malik Reneau and Arizona transfer Oumar Ballo, while the Gamecocks counter with potential first-round pick Collin Murray-Boyles, whose remarkable freshman campaign turned heads across college basketball. Murray-Boyles, who shot 61% from inside the arc while posting elite defensive metrics last year, will face his stiffest test yet against Indiana’s veteran big men.

The Hoosiers couldn’t shoot to save their lives last year, and this season hasn’t been much different. They’re shooting 35% from deep, but only 21% of their points have come from beyond the arc this year, ranked 326th, while their 66% of points coming inside the arc is the fifth highest. Both teams the Hoosiers have faced so far rank outside the top 300 in the nation so going against what should be a top-50 defense in the country may highlight the struggles of this Hoosiers offense. South Carolina meanwhile has shot below 30% from deep and has been dependent on getting inside and to the charity stripe which will be difficult against Indiana who has done a great job avoiding fouling.

For Indiana to win at Assembly Hall, they’ll need to leverage their frontcourt depth and physicality while pushing the pace to prevent South Carolina from setting up their disciplined halfcourt defense. Luke Goode’s minutes could prove crucial, as his shooting ability represents a rare source of reliable floor spacing for the Hoosiers, even though he’s 2-7 from downtown in this young season. Mackenzie Mgbako could be the crux of the Hoosiers’ success as he hit 38% of his attempts from deep last year and seems to pick up where he left off. He’s a former five-star recruit who can hold his own defensively against the 6-8 Murray-Boyles. They would also do well to attack Murray-Boyles early, testing his defensive discipline and potentially forcing him into foul trouble.

The Gamecocks’ path to victory runs through their ability to control the tempo and force a halfcourt game where their defensive principles can shine. Murray-Boyles must navigate expected double teams efficiently, while the guard trio of Jamarii Thomas, Jacobi Wright and Myles Stute needs to connect from outside to prevent complete paint-packing by the Hoosiers. Creating turnovers that lead to transition opportunities before Indiana’s defense can set up will be essential.

For both teams, this almost feels like a must-win. South Carolina already got upset by North

Florida and with Indiana’s talent and expectations, a loss here would certainly warm up Mike Woodson’s coaching seat. Expect Murray-Boyles to impress with something around 18 points and seven boards, but the relentless interior attack of Ballo and Reneau will likely prove too much for the Gamecocks to handle over 40 minutes. This matchup should be a grind, but I expect Indiana to take it in a defensive-first affair.