Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Every week, I will provide an update that summarizes our College Football Power Rankings. FTN’s simulation model repeats 10,000 iterations and powers our weekly College Football Power Rankings. The rankings will update at the start of each week as the model collects additional data. If you are looking for weekly picks? Check out our CFB Betting Model which is updated every Monday for the upcoming slate of games.
We can use these ratings to create a point spread between any two teams in the country on a neutral field. Just subtract the lower team’s rating from the higher-ranked team’s rating. If you compare that number to the spread of a particular game, you can find situations where FTN identifies a betting edge. We will also keep track of teams that are trending up or down, helping to further identify value compared to the public’s perception of media polls.
Let’s take a quick look at the biggest discrepancies from the AP Top 25 to our own FTN Power Rankings.
| Team | Conference | Record | Proj W-L | Current Rank | Previous | Week Diff | Preseason | Pre Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio State | BIG10 | 8 - 1 | 10.7 - 1.3 | 1 | 1 | - | 2 | +1 |
| Texas | SEC | 8 - 1 | 10.5 - 1.5 | 2 | 4 | +2 | 8 | +6 |
| Georgia | SEC | 7 - 2 | 9.5 - 2.5 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 1 | -2 |
| Alabama | SEC | 7 - 2 | 9.6 - 2.4 | 4 | 5 | +1 | 5 | +1 |
| Oregon | BIG10 | 10 - 0 | 11.6 - 0.4 | 5 | 3 | -2 | 6 | +1 |
| Ole Miss | SEC | 8 - 2 | 9.7 - 2.3 | 6 | 6 | - | 16 | +10 |
| Notre Dame | IND | 8 - 1 | 10.5 - 1.5 | 7 | 8 | +1 | 7 | - |
| Penn State | BIG10 | 8 - 1 | 10.6 - 1.4 | 8 | 7 | -1 | 3 | -5 |
| Tennessee | SEC | 8 - 1 | 10.1 - 1.9 | 9 | 9 | - | 11 | +2 |
| Clemson | ACC | 7 - 2 | 9.3 - 2.7 | 10 | 12 | +2 | 10 | - |
| LSU | SEC | 6 - 3 | 8.1 - 3.9 | 11 | 11 | - | 15 | +4 |
| Miami FL | ACC | 9 - 1 | 10.6 - 1.4 | 12 | 10 | -2 | 25 | +13 |
| Texas A&M | SEC | 7 - 2 | 8.9 - 3.1 | 13 | 13 | - | 14 | +1 |
| Indiana | BIG10 | 10 - 0 | 11.1 - 0.9 | 14 | 14 | - | 74 | +60 |
| South Carolina | SEC | 6 - 3 | 8.1 - 3.9 | 15 | 19 | +4 | 51 | +36 |
| USC | BIG10 | 4 - 5 | 5.7 - 6.3 | 16 | 15 | -1 | 24 | +8 |
| SMU | ACC | 8 - 1 | 10.1 - 1.9 | 17 | 18 | +1 | 32 | +15 |
| Kansas State | BIG12 | 7 - 2 | 8.8 - 3.2 | 18 | 20 | +2 | 18 | - |
| Iowa | BIG10 | 6 - 4 | 7.3 - 4.7 | 19 | 17 | -2 | 42 | +23 |
| Louisville | ACC | 6 - 3 | 8.1 - 3.9 | 20 | 21 | +1 | 23 | +3 |
| Oklahoma | SEC | 5 - 5 | 5.6 - 6.4 | 21 | 32 | +11 | 9 | -12 |
| Iowa State | BIG12 | 7 - 2 | 8.7 - 3.3 | 22 | 16 | -6 | 46 | +24 |
| Auburn | SEC | 3 - 6 | 4.5 - 7.5 | 23 | 24 | +1 | 20 | -3 |
| Arkansas | SEC | 5 - 4 | 6.6 - 5.4 | 24 | 26 | +2 | 43 | +19 |
| BYU | BIG12 | 9 - 0 | 10.8 - 1.2 | 25 | 30 | +5 | 86 | +61 |
| Colorado | BIG12 | 7 - 2 | 8.9 - 3.1 | 26 | 36 | +10 | 75 | +49 |
| Florida | SEC | 4 - 5 | 5.3 - 6.7 | 27 | 22 | -5 | 29 | +2 |
| Wisconsin | BIG10 | 5 - 4 | 6.3 - 5.7 | 28 | 29 | +1 | 30 | +2 |
| Minnesota | BIG10 | 6 - 4 | 6.7 - 5.3 | 29 | 31 | +2 | 52 | +23 |
| Virginia Tech | ACC | 5 - 5 | 6.3 - 5.7 | 30 | 28 | -2 | 35 | +5 |
| Missouri | SEC | 7 - 2 | 8.5 - 3.5 | 31 | 23 | -8 | 12 | -19 |
| Washington | BIG10 | 5 - 5 | 5.8 - 6.2 | 32 | 25 | -7 | 13 | -19 |
| Boise State | MWST | 8 - 1 | 10.4 - 1.6 | 33 | 27 | -6 | 34 | +1 |
| Kentucky | SEC | 3 - 6 | 4.5 - 7.5 | 34 | 34 | - | 22 | -12 |
| UCF | BIG12 | 4 - 6 | 5.2 - 6.8 | 35 | 33 | -2 | 45 | +10 |
| Kansas | BIG12 | 3 - 6 | 4.4 - 7.6 | 36 | 42 | +6 | 50 | +14 |
| Arizona State | BIG12 | 7 - 2 | 8.5 - 3.5 | 37 | 35 | -2 | 89 | +52 |
| TCU | BIG12 | 6 - 4 | 7.2 - 4.8 | 38 | 38 | - | 38 | - |
| Tulane | AMER | 8 - 2 | 9.3 - 2.7 | 39 | 43 | +4 | 58 | +19 |
| Baylor | BIG12 | 5 - 4 | 6.7 - 5.3 | 40 | 40 | - | 76 | +36 |
| California | ACC | 5 - 4 | 6.7 - 5.3 | 41 | 39 | -2 | 77 | +36 |
| Georgia Tech | ACC | 6 - 4 | 6.7 - 5.3 | 42 | 52 | +10 | 53 | +11 |
| Pittsburgh | ACC | 7 - 2 | 8.2 - 3.8 | 43 | 37 | -6 | 54 | +11 |
| Michigan | BIG10 | 5 - 5 | 5.8 - 6.2 | 44 | 44 | - | 4 | -40 |
| Nebraska | BIG10 | 5 - 4 | 6.1 - 5.9 | 45 | 47 | +2 | 49 | +4 |
| North Carolina | ACC | 5 - 4 | 6.9 - 5.1 | 46 | 46 | - | 33 | -13 |
| Cincinnati | BIG12 | 5 - 4 | 6.2 - 5.8 | 47 | 48 | +1 | 41 | -6 |
| West Virginia | BIG12 | 5 - 4 | 6.4 - 5.6 | 48 | 45 | -3 | 31 | -17 |
| Army | AMER | 9 - 0 | 10.5 - 1.5 | 49 | 54 | +5 | 109 | +60 |
| UNLV | MWST | 7 - 2 | 9.3 - 2.7 | 50 | 53 | +3 | 70 | +20 |
| Vanderbilt | SEC | 6 - 4 | 6.4 - 5.6 | 51 | 41 | -10 | 96 | +45 |
| Utah | BIG12 | 4 - 5 | 5.1 - 6.9 | 52 | 49 | -3 | 17 | -35 |
| Maryland | BIG10 | 4 - 5 | 5.0 - 7.0 | 53 | 57 | +4 | 40 | -13 |
| Washington State | PAC12 | 8 - 1 | 10.3 - 1.7 | 54 | 51 | -3 | 37 | -17 |
| Texas Tech | BIG12 | 6 - 4 | 7.0 - 5.0 | 55 | 50 | -5 | 28 | -27 |
| Illinois | BIG10 | 6 - 3 | 7.8 - 4.2 | 56 | 56 | - | 56 | - |
| Virginia | ACC | 5 - 4 | 5.8 - 6.2 | 57 | 61 | +4 | 81 | +24 |
| Syracuse | ACC | 6 - 3 | 7.3 - 4.7 | 58 | 55 | -3 | 61 | +3 |
| Michigan State | BIG10 | 4 - 5 | 5.7 - 6.3 | 59 | 59 | - | 79 | +20 |
| UCLA | BIG10 | 4 - 5 | 5.2 - 6.8 | 60 | 69 | +9 | 44 | -16 |
| Duke | ACC | 7 - 3 | 8.0 - 4.0 | 61 | 65 | +4 | 39 | -22 |
| Arizona | BIG12 | 3 - 6 | 4.3 - 7.7 | 62 | 58 | -4 | 27 | -35 |
| Boston College | ACC | 5 - 4 | 6.1 - 5.9 | 63 | 63 | - | 68 | +5 |
| Navy | AMER | 7 - 2 | 8.5 - 3.5 | 64 | 66 | +2 | 110 | +46 |
| Louisiana | SBELT | 8 - 1 | 10.3 - 1.7 | 65 | 67 | +2 | 78 | +13 |
| James Madison | SBELT | 7 - 2 | 9.0 - 3.0 | 66 | 68 | +2 | 55 | -11 |
| Rutgers | BIG10 | 5 - 4 | 6.4 - 5.6 | 67 | 64 | -3 | 82 | +15 |
| North Carolina State | ACC | 5 - 5 | 5.8 - 6.2 | 68 | 60 | -8 | 36 | -32 |
| Oklahoma State | BIG12 | 3 - 7 | 3.7 - 8.3 | 69 | 62 | -7 | 26 | -43 |
| Texas State | SBELT | 5 - 4 | 7.3 - 4.7 | 70 | 70 | - | 87 | +17 |
| Mississippi State | SEC | 2 - 8 | 2.4 - 9.6 | 71 | 75 | +4 | 47 | -24 |
| Houston | BIG12 | 4 - 5 | 5.0 - 7.0 | 72 | 74 | +2 | 69 | -3 |
| Fresno State | MWST | 5 - 5 | 6.0 - 6.0 | 73 | 71 | -2 | 71 | -2 |
| Liberty | CUSA | 6 - 2 | 8.6 - 3.4 | 74 | 76 | +2 | 64 | -10 |
| Wake Forest | ACC | 4 - 5 | 4.9 - 7.1 | 75 | 78 | +3 | 57 | -18 |
| Jacksonville State | CUSA | 6 - 3 | 7.9 - 4.1 | 76 | 73 | -3 | 93 | +17 |
| Bowling Green | MAC | 5 - 4 | 7.0 - 5.0 | 77 | 81 | +4 | 121 | +44 |
| Memphis | AMER | 8 - 2 | 9.0 - 3.0 | 78 | 72 | -6 | 59 | -19 |
| Western Kentucky | CUSA | 7 - 2 | 8.7 - 3.3 | 79 | 80 | +1 | 90 | +11 |
| North Texas | AMER | 5 - 4 | 7.0 - 5.0 | 80 | 79 | -1 | 80 | - |
| Miami OH | MAC | 5 - 4 | 6.9 - 5.1 | 81 | 82 | +1 | 99 | +18 |
| Marshall | SBELT | 6 - 3 | 7.6 - 4.4 | 82 | 90 | +8 | 73 | -9 |
| San Jose State | MWST | 6 - 3 | 7.1 - 4.9 | 83 | 83 | - | 72 | -11 |
| Northern Illinois | MAC | 5 - 4 | 7.1 - 4.9 | 84 | 86 | +2 | 112 | +28 |
| Florida State | ACC | 1 - 9 | 2.2 - 9.8 | 85 | 77 | -8 | 21 | -64 |
| Toledo | MAC | 6 - 3 | 8.1 - 3.9 | 86 | 87 | +1 | 67 | -19 |
| Oregon State | PAC12 | 4 - 5 | 5.2 - 6.8 | 87 | 85 | -2 | 19 | -68 |
| Colorado State | MWST | 6 - 3 | 7.7 - 4.3 | 88 | 88 | - | 104 | +16 |
| South Alabama | SBELT | 4 - 5 | 5.5 - 6.5 | 89 | 91 | +2 | 66 | -23 |
| Northwestern | BIG10 | 4 - 5 | 4.6 - 7.4 | 90 | 89 | -1 | 97 | +7 |
| South Florida | AMER | 4 - 5 | 6.0 - 6.0 | 91 | 84 | -7 | 91 | - |
| East Carolina | AMER | 5 - 4 | 6.5 - 5.5 | 92 | 101 | +9 | 94 | +2 |
| Connecticut | IND | 7 - 3 | 8.1 - 3.9 | 93 | 97 | +4 | 122 | +29 |
| Old Dominion | SBELT | 4 - 5 | 5.3 - 6.7 | 94 | 92 | -2 | 108 | +14 |
| Ohio | MAC | 6 - 3 | 7.9 - 4.1 | 95 | 103 | +8 | 84 | -11 |
| Sam Houston | CUSA | 7 - 2 | 8.6 - 3.4 | 96 | 95 | -1 | 127 | +31 |
| UTSA | AMER | 4 - 5 | 5.4 - 6.6 | 97 | 94 | -3 | 48 | -49 |
| Appalachian State | SBELT | 4 - 5 | 5.2 - 6.8 | 98 | 100 | +2 | 65 | -33 |
| Georgia Southern | SBELT | 6 - 3 | 7.6 - 4.4 | 99 | 96 | -3 | 83 | -16 |
| Purdue | BIG10 | 1 - 8 | 1.4 - 10.6 | 100 | 93 | -7 | 60 | -40 |
| Stanford | ACC | 2 - 7 | 2.7 - 9.3 | 101 | 98 | -3 | 85 | -16 |
| Hawaii | MWST | 4 - 6 | 5.0 - 7.0 | 102 | 104 | +2 | 113 | +11 |
| Coastal Carolina | SBELT | 5 - 4 | 6.4 - 5.6 | 103 | 99 | -4 | 95 | -8 |
| New Mexico | MWST | 4 - 6 | 4.7 - 7.3 | 104 | 105 | +1 | 100 | -4 |
| Rice | AMER | 3 - 7 | 4.1 - 7.9 | 105 | 110 | +5 | 103 | -2 |
| Nevada | MWST | 3 - 8 | 3.8 - 9.2 | 106 | 109 | +3 | 123 | +17 |
| Utah State | MWST | 2 - 7 | 3.4 - 8.6 | 107 | 107 | - | 117 | +10 |
| Arkansas State | SBELT | 5 - 4 | 6.6 - 5.4 | 108 | 102 | -6 | 102 | -6 |
| Western Michigan | MAC | 5 - 4 | 6.6 - 5.4 | 109 | 108 | -1 | 115 | +6 |
| San Diego State | MWST | 3 - 6 | 4.2 - 7.8 | 110 | 106 | -4 | 106 | -4 |
| Georgia State | SBELT | 2 - 7 | 3.1 - 8.9 | 111 | 111 | - | 107 | -4 |
| Wyoming | MWST | 2 - 7 | 2.6 - 9.4 | 112 | 113 | +1 | 98 | -14 |
| Troy | SBELT | 2 - 7 | 3.3 - 8.7 | 113 | 114 | +1 | 62 | -51 |
| Charlotte | AMER | 3 - 6 | 4.4 - 7.6 | 114 | 115 | +1 | 116 | +2 |
| Louisiana Tech | CUSA | 3 - 6 | 4.1 - 7.9 | 115 | 120 | +5 | 118 | +3 |
| Florida Atlantic | AMER | 2 - 7 | 3.7 - 8.3 | 116 | 112 | -4 | 105 | -11 |
| Louisiana Monroe | SBELT | 5 - 4 | 5.7 - 6.3 | 117 | 116 | -1 | 128 | +11 |
| Buffalo | MAC | 5 - 4 | 6.9 - 5.1 | 118 | 117 | -1 | 119 | +1 |
| Eastern Michigan | MAC | 5 - 4 | 6.2 - 5.8 | 119 | 119 | - | 124 | +5 |
| Air Force | MWST | 2 - 7 | 3.1 - 8.9 | 120 | 123 | +3 | 63 | -57 |
| FIU | CUSA | 3 - 6 | 4.5 - 7.5 | 121 | 121 | - | 133 | +12 |
| UAB | AMER | 2 - 7 | 3.1 - 8.9 | 122 | 118 | -4 | 88 | -34 |
| Middle Tennessee | CUSA | 3 - 7 | 4.1 - 7.9 | 123 | 124 | +1 | 114 | -9 |
| Akron | MAC | 2 - 7 | 3.2 - 8.8 | 124 | 127 | +3 | 131 | +7 |
| Tulsa | AMER | 3 - 6 | 3.9 - 8.1 | 125 | 126 | +1 | 111 | -14 |
| Temple | AMER | 2 - 7 | 2.8 - 9.2 | 126 | 125 | -1 | 125 | -1 |
| Central Michigan | MAC | 3 - 6 | 3.7 - 8.3 | 127 | 122 | -5 | 120 | -7 |
| UMass | IND | 2 - 7 | 2.4 - 9.6 | 128 | 128 | - | 129 | +1 |
| Ball State | MAC | 3 - 6 | 3.8 - 8.2 | 129 | 130 | +1 | 126 | -3 |
| UTEP | CUSA | 2 - 8 | 2.6 - 9.4 | 130 | 131 | +1 | 130 | - |
| Southern Miss | SBELT | 1 - 8 | 1.6 - 10.4 | 131 | 129 | -2 | 101 | -30 |
| New Mexico State | CUSA | 2 - 7 | 2.8 - 9.2 | 132 | 132 | - | 92 | -40 |
| Kennesaw State | CUSA | 1 - 8 | 1.8 - 10.2 | 133 | 133 | - | 134 | +1 |
| Kent State | MAC | 0 - 9 | 0.5 - 11.5 | 134 | 134 | - | 132 | -2 |
| Conference |
Oregon Ducks
AP Ranking: 1
FTN Power Ranking: 5
Change: -2
The Ducks are a perfect 10-0 and are projected to finish the season a perfect 12-0. Their upcoming games at Wisconsin and home to Washington are certainly winnable. However, we still see betting value against Oregon on a neutral field. We project the Ducks as a slight underdog to Ohio State, Texas, Georgia and even Alabama. Our FTN Power Rankings have stayed consistent on Oregon all season, as they are only one spot higher than our preseason ranking (No. 6). We project the Ducks with a 17.9% probability to win the College Football Playoffs.
Ohio State Buckeyes
AP Ranking: 2
FTN Power Ranking: 1
Change: N/A
We still have the Buckeyes as our No. 1 team in our FTN Power Rankings. Ohio State has been almost perfect this season, with its only blemish a one-point loss at Oregon, 32-31. The Buckeyes have reeled off three straight wins since that point, defeating Nebraska, No. 3 Penn State and blanking Purdue 45-0. The Buckeyes would project as a slight favorite over every team in college football, even our No. 2 ranked Texas Longhorns. Ohio State carries the highest probability (28.3%) of winning the National Championship, per our College Football Playoff Simulations.
Mississippi Rebels
AP Ranking: 10
FTN Power Ranking: 6
Change: N/A
Despite their two losses, Lane Kiffin’s Rebels reside as the No. 6 team in our rankings. The Rebels earned a fantastic 28-10 upset win over No. 3 Georgia, which came on the heels of a solid win over Oklahoma and last week’s 63-31 destruction at Arkansas. Kiffin’s offense is electric, and Ole Miss’ win over Georgia stamps the Rebels as a dangerous potential team in the upcoming College Football Playoff, but they first need to qualify.
Penn State Nittany Lions
AP Ranking: 4
FTN Power Ranking: 8
Change: -1
The Nittany Lions drop one spot in our rankings despite a nice 35-6 bounceback win over Washington. While Nittany Lions fans are still waiting for head coach James Franklin to earn a “big win,” we still have Penn State inside our top 10. Penn State would not, however, be a projected favorite on a neutral field against any of the top teams, including AP No. 8 ranked Notre Dame. Penn State currently has the seventh-best odds (4%) to win the College Football Playoffs.
Check out some more interesting CFB Information on ftnfantasy.com.
