MLB Postseason Preview: FTN Model American League Championship Series Projections and Odds
MLB Dream
Frank Brank
Tuesday in the MLB playoffs, and we have Game 2 of the American League Championship Series between the Yankees and Guardians.
As always, odds can fluctuate, so be sure to head over to the Prop Shop to ensure you grab the best possible number.
Guardians Moneyline
(+145, BetRivers)
This feels like a difficult series to break down, but I have a bit of a strong lean on the Guardians moneyline Tuesday. While this matchup will see both aces on the bump, I feel as though this isn’t a great matchup for Gerrit Cole. All season long his swing-and-miss stuff just hasn’t been there. His strikeout rate (25.4%) was his lowest since his time in Pittsburgh. His walk rate (7.4%) was the highest since his first year in Houston. His fastball velocity (95.9 mph) was the lowest since 2017, which is more notable given he missed time this year with an elbow injury. Lastly, his swinging strike rate (10.7%) was his lowest since his final season in Pittsburgh and additionally, his swinging strike rate has now seen a dip in each of his last five seasons.
In Cole’s only 2024 start against the Guardians, he posted a 5.2% swinging strike rate, the second lowest in any of his 2024 starts. While he managed a 30.8% chase rate, 75% of those pitches saw contact. This Guardians team is a tough team to put away. They had the sixth lowest whiff rate in baseball this season, despite posting the fifth highest chase rate. If Cole isn’t generating strikeouts, this Guardians lineup has an opportunity to generate some traffic on the basepaths and really make Cole work hard to get out of trouble.
With Tanner Bibee opposing Cole, who posted a 2.76 road ERA in 2024 (though a 3.70 road FIP does suggest some luck), I do find the Yankees to be a bit wide on the moneyline. Oddsmakers are accounting for the name on the mound for the Yankees, rather than what we’ve actually seen in 2024. With a deep Guardians bullpen and multiple weapons off the bench to account for lefty/righty splits, I’m liking the Guardians at +145 over at BetRivers to tie up the series on their way back to Cleveland.
