MLB Postseason Preview: FTN Model American League Championship Series Projections and Odds
MLB Dream
Frank Brank
This was a very strong week for the best teams in the NFC, a number of whom climbed up the DVOA ratings table. Minnesota remains at No. 1 after a bye week, but Detroit moved up three spots to No. 2 and San Francisco moved up four spots to No. 5. Green Bay, Tampa Bay, and Atlanta all moved up into the top 10.
We thought before the year began that the AFC would be much stronger than the NFC, and it has turned out to be the other way around. The issue is not that the top NFC teams are better than the top AFC teams, despite a number of them climbing after Week 6, but rather that the worst AFC teams are much worse than the worst NFC teams except for Carolina. Right now, six of the bottom seven teams in DVOA are AFC teams: Cleveland, Miami, New England, Las Vegas, Jacksonville, and Tennessee.
Of course, some of those NFC teams moving up means others had to move down for losing. The Saints are in freefall, dropping from fourth to 11th and likely headed further south without Derek Carr under center. Seattle dropped six spots to No. 14 and Dallas dropped six spots to No. 24. The Cowboys would be even worse if not for having the best special teams unit in the NFL this season.
The surprisingly low NFC team is probably the Chicago Bears. Coming off a couple of big wins, the Bears are still just 17th in DVOA. A big reason for this is strength of schedule, as the Bears have played the second-easiest schedule in the league by average DVOA of opponents. (Amazingly, the Cleveland Browns have played the easiest schedule and still look terrible.) The Bears have also recovered 71% of all fumbles, second in the NFL behind the Los Angeles Chargers. If we look at VOA ratings that don’t include adjustments for opponent strength or fumble luck, the Bears rank seventh in the league instead of 17th.
The flip of the Bears would be the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs have played the toughest schedule so far and rank fourth in DVOA. Without adjustments, the Chiefs would rank only 14th despite being undefeated. Kansas City’s remaining schedule ranks only 25th in the league. Chicago’s remaining schedule is the hardest, as they still need to play all six division games plus games against Washington, San Francisco, and Seattle.
Some other schedule notes based on current DVOA ratings:
- The New York Jets have played the sixth-toughest schedule so far and have the easiest remaining schedule in the league. However, that number is significantly impacted by playing the Dolphins twice, and we all assume that Tua Tagovailoa will come back at some point and the Dolphins will be a tougher opponent.
- The Detroit Lions have the second-toughest remaining schedule after the Bears. The Packers are third and the Vikings are eighth. This is what happens when you have the best division in football this year and all the division games are stuffed into the second half of the season.
- Tennessee and Seattle, which have had easy schedules so far, play the fifth- and sixth-toughest remaining schedules, respectively.
- Arizona’s struggling defense has played by far the hardest schedule of opposing offenses, and they play the No. 27 schdeule of opposing offenses the rest of the way. The Chiefs and Ravens defenses also get to face a much easier slate of opposing offenses the rest of the way.
- What’s been really easy for Cleveland is the defenses that have been faced by Deshaun Watson and the offense, which makes his numbers even more crazy. Watson had -477 passing YAR but that drops to -608 DYAR with opponent adjustments. However, the Browns face the seventh-toughest schedule of opposing defenses the rest of the season.
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These are the FTN DVOA and DAVE ratings through six weeks of 2024. Our Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system breaks down every single play and compares a team’s performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here.) Opponent adjustments are currently at 60% strength.
OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted for performance indoors and consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season. As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE.
DAVE is a formula which combines our preseason forecast with current DVOA to get a more accurate projection of how a team will play the rest of the season. DAVE is currently 55% preseason forecast and 45% actual performance for teams with six games and 65% forecast with 35% actual performance for teams with five games.
| RK | TEAM | TOTAL DVOA |
LAST WEEK |
TOTAL DAVE |
RK | W-L | OFF. DVOA |
OFF. RK |
DEF. DVOA |
DEF. RK |
S.T. DVOA |
S.T. RK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIN | 41.0% | 1 | 12.1% | 7 | 5-0 | -1.1% | 18 | -39.6% | 1 | 2.4% | 9 |
| 2 | DET | 34.2% | 5 | 15.3% | 5 | 4-1 | 17.2% | 4 | -14.5% | 4 | 2.5% | 8 |
| 3 | BAL | 33.2% | 2 | 24.9% | 1 | 4-2 | 31.5% | 1 | -3.1% | 13 | -1.3% | 22 |
| 4 | KC | 23.0% | 3 | 17.9% | 3 | 5-0 | 12.7% | 9 | -9.7% | 8 | 0.6% | 14 |
| 5 | SF | 21.6% | 9 | 20.9% | 2 | 3-3 | 15.6% | 7 | -13.8% | 5 | -7.9% | 31 |
| 6 | HOU | 21.1% | 7 | 16.9% | 4 | 5-1 | 0.4% | 17 | -18.1% | 2 | 2.6% | 7 |
| 7 | BUF | 18.1% | 6 | 14.7% | 6 | 4-2 | 19.4% | 3 | -5.6% | 12 | -7.0% | 30 |
| 8 | GB | 15.9% | 11 | 10.8% | 8 | 4-2 | 16.3% | 5 | -2.3% | 15 | -2.7% | 26 |
| 9 | TB | 14.8% | 15 | 5.9% | 10 | 4-2 | 10.8% | 10 | -5.8% | 11 | -1.8% | 24 |
| 10 | ATL | 13.7% | 13 | 3.5% | 13 | 4-2 | 15.9% | 6 | 3.8% | 20 | 1.5% | 11 |
| 11 | NO | 11.1% | 4 | 5.8% | 11 | 2-4 | 0.7% | 16 | -2.7% | 14 | 7.7% | 2 |
| 12 | WAS | 10.1% | 10 | 1.1% | 14 | 4-2 | 19.8% | 2 | 12.9% | 28 | 3.2% | 6 |
| 13 | CIN | 9.0% | 12 | 8.2% | 9 | 2-4 | 14.9% | 8 | 4.8% | 22 | -1.1% | 21 |
| 14 | SEA | 8.9% | 8 | 5.4% | 12 | 3-3 | 10.8% | 11 | 2.5% | 18 | 0.5% | 15 |
| 15 | LAC | 6.4% | 17 | -6.6% | 23 | 3-2 | -7.7% | 22 | -14.8% | 3 | -0.8% | 20 |
| 16 | PIT | 3.8% | 14 | -2.3% | 18 | 4-2 | -8.5% | 23 | -8.2% | 10 | 4.1% | 4 |
| RK | TEAM | TOTAL DVOA |
LAST WEEK |
TOTAL DAVE |
RK | W-L | OFF. DVOA |
OFF. RK |
DEF. DVOA |
DEF. RK |
S.T. DVOA |
S.T. RK |
| 17 | CHI | 3.2% | 20 | -4.3% | 20 | 4-2 | -9.8% | 24 | -11.9% | 6 | 1.2% | 12 |
| 18 | DEN | 1.9% | 16 | -4.4% | 21 | 3-3 | -14.6% | 26 | -10.6% | 7 | 5.9% | 3 |
| 19 | IND | 1.4% | 19 | -5.2% | 22 | 3-3 | 4.9% | 13 | 3.6% | 19 | 0.1% | 17 |
| 20 | PHI | -6.9% | 24 | -2.7% | 19 | 3-2 | 5.9% | 12 | 9.9% | 26 | -3.0% | 27 |
| 21 | NYJ | -7.8% | 22 | -1.8% | 17 | 2-4 | -3.0% | 21 | 1.4% | 16 | -3.4% | 28 |
| 22 | ARI | -7.9% | 21 | -9.0% | 25 | 2-4 | 1.5% | 15 | 8.7% | 23 | -0.7% | 19 |
| 23 | NYG | -10.0% | 23 | -12.8% | 28 | 2-4 | -1.2% | 19 | 1.9% | 17 | -6.9% | 29 |
| 24 | DAL | -11.9% | 18 | -0.2% | 15 | 3-3 | -11.5% | 25 | 11.4% | 27 | 11.0% | 1 |
| 25 | LAR | -13.1% | 25 | -1.8% | 16 | 1-4 | 2.8% | 14 | 16.7% | 30 | 0.8% | 13 |
| 26 | TEN | -17.6% | 26 | -10.1% | 26 | 1-4 | -18.2% | 28 | -9.7% | 9 | -9.0% | 32 |
| 27 | JAX | -27.4% | 27 | -11.5% | 27 | 1-5 | -1.9% | 20 | 25.8% | 32 | 0.2% | 16 |
| 28 | LV | -31.8% | 29 | -18.4% | 30 | 2-4 | -19.3% | 29 | 9.8% | 25 | -2.7% | 25 |
| 29 | NE | -33.8% | 28 | -20.8% | 31 | 1-5 | -23.4% | 30 | 13.7% | 29 | 3.3% | 5 |
| 30 | CAR | -38.7% | 30 | -23.7% | 32 | 1-5 | -17.7% | 27 | 19.2% | 31 | -1.8% | 23 |
| 31 | MIA | -40.8% | 31 | -7.3% | 24 | 2-3 | -30.9% | 31 | 9.2% | 24 | -0.7% | 18 |
| 32 | CLE | -45.4% | 32 | -17.1% | 29 | 1-5 | -43.3% | 32 | 3.8% | 21 | 1.7% | 10 |
