MLB Postseason Preview: FTN Model American League Championship Series Projections and Odds
MLB Dream
Frank Brank
Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me 100 times, and you’re the Minnesota Vikings.
I present to you one of the best NFL memes out there:
The list of things the Vikings have flubbed rivals any NFL franchise:
- Lost 41-0 in an NFC Championship Game
- Lost another one 38-7…
- Brett Favre throws an across-the-body interception … in the NFC Championship Game
- Gary Anderson misses his only field goal … in the NFC Championship Game
- Missed a chip shot field goal in the 2015 playoffs (not in the NFC Championship Game though!)
- Lost four Super Bowls in a seven-year span (in the 70s)
- The NFL’s classic desperation play – the Hail Mary – originated against the franchise in the playoffs (in the 70s)
- I’m probably missing more!
I wouldn’t say they are the most cursed franchise. They’ve at least had electric playoff moments like the Minneapolis Miracle. The Browns and Lions are tough to top on the sadness scale, and at least Minnesota’s most famous play isn’t called “The Butt Fumble.”
But, to put it simply, the Vikings are known for blowing things. In fact, they started 5-0 not too long ago (2016) and didn’t even make the playoffs. And in 2022, they were famously fraudulent despite a great record. That team ended up being bounced in the Wild-Card round by Daniel Jones
Which is why people are very, very tentative to accept the 5-0 Vikings as 2024 Super Bowl contenders despite the fact they rank first in DVOA through Week 5.
But are they legit? Let’s take a look.
Previous No. 1 DVOA Teams through Week 5
Let’s look at previous teams that ranked No. 1 in total team DVOA through five weeks since 2000:
| YEAR | TEAM | W-L | DVOA | OFF RK |
DEF RK |
FINAL W-L |
PLAYOFFS |
| 2024 | MIN | 5-0 | 38.1% | 19 | 1 | — | — |
| 2023 | SF | 5-0 | 51.6% | 2 | 7 | 12-5 | Lost SB |
| 2022 | BUF | 4-1 | 43.8% | 5 | 2 | 13-3 | Lost DIV |
| 2021 | BUF | 4-1 | 45.5% | 12 | 1 | 11-6 | Lost DIV |
| 2020 | GB | 4-0 | 33.9% | 1 | 12 | 13-3 | Lost CCG |
| 2019 | SF | 4-0 | 55.9% | 3 | 2 | 13-3 | Lost SB |
| 2018 | KC | 5-0 | 42.5% | 2 | 16 | 12-4 | Lost CCG |
| 2017 | KC | 5-0 | 40.2% | 1 | 16 | 10-6 | Lost WC |
| 2016 | MIN | 5-0 | 36.6% | 13 | 1 | 8-8 | None |
| 2015 | NE | 4-0 | 61.8% | 1 | 5 | 12-4 | Lost CCG |
| 2014 | DEN | 3-1 | 41.4% | 1 | 2 | 12-4 | Lost DIV |
| 2013 | DEN | 5-0 | 51.8% | 1 | 19 | 13-3 | Lost SB |
| YEAR | TEAM | W-L | DVOA | OFF RK |
DEF RK |
FINAL W-L |
PLAYOFFS |
| 2012 | SF | 4-1 | 42.5% | 3 | 5 | 11-4-1 | Lost SB |
| 2011 | NE | 4-1 | 29.8% | 1 | 22 | 13-3 | Lost SB |
| 2010 | NE | 3-1 | 30.3% | 1 | 28 | 14-2 | Lost DIV |
| 2009 | NO | 4-0 | 53.5% | 2 | 2 | 13-3 | Won SB |
| 2008 | NYG | 4-0 | 54.6% | 1 | 4 | 12-4 | Lost DIV |
| 2007 | NE | 5-0 | 65.2% | 1 | 2 | 16-0 | Lost SB |
| 2006 | CHI | 5-0 | 55.3% | 5 | 1 | 13-3 | Lost SB |
| 2005 | IND | 5-0 | 37.7% | 6 | 1 | 14-2 | Lost DIV |
| 2004 | PHI | 4-0 | 47.4% | 3 | 4 | 13-3 | Lost SB |
| 2003 | KC | 5-0 | 41.7% | 6 | 10 | 13-3 | Lost DIV |
| 2002 | OAK | 4-0 | 43.4% | 2 | 16 | 11-5 | Lost SB |
| 2001 | PHI | 2-2 | 41.6% | 6 | 3 | 11-5 | Lost CCG |
| 2000 | STL | 5-0 | 41.0% | 1 | 26 | 10-6 | Lost WC |
A few things stand out:
- Only one team that was No. 1 in DVOA through Week 5 ended up missing the playoffs. It was the 2016 Vikings. Of course.
- Only one team (since 2000) ended up winning the Super Bowl, the 2009 Saints.
- Of the 25 teams on this list, the 2024 Vikings have the fifth-lowest overall team DVOA. The four that are lower are the 2016 Vikings and Tom Brady or Peyton Manning-led teams.
- The 2024 Vikings have by far the lowest offensive DVOA rank through five weeks for teams that ranked first in total team DVOA at this point in the season. The 2016 Vikings had the second-lowest offensive DVOA rank among teams on this list.
The similarities between the 2024 Vikings and 2016 Vikings don’t end there. Both teams had relatively weak offenses (compared to other No. 1 teams at this point in the year) but dominant defenses. In fact, only five teams had the No. 1 defense at this point in the season, and the Vikings account for two of those five spots.
For those of you wondering, the 2022 Vikings, who had a great record, never shined in DVOA. That team was at -11.0% DVOA (22nd) when they were 4-1 and then -12.1% (23rd) when they were 8-2.
In the wise words of Aaron Schatz: “The 2022 Vikings are very, very strange.”
But back to the 2024 squad: the data above should not make Vikings fans feel great. The dominant defense has been incredible, but seeing how far behind this Vikings team is in terms of offense should have Minnesota feeling a little nervous that another “collapse” is imminent.
To be clear, a “collapse” like we saw in 2016 is incredibly unlikely. The 2024 team has already shown resilience in many ways. They lost their first-round rookie QB before the season, and their 2023 first-round pick (Jordan Addison) has already missed playing time. The team has a brand-new quarterback and a brand-new running back and had generally low expectations coming into the year. You could argue that even though the offense ranks 19th in DVOA, they are exceeding the expectations we had for them back in August.
The Vikings Defense
The good
Nobody thought much when the Vikings held the Giants to just six points on opening day because, well, it’s Daniel Jones and the Giants.
But people really started paying attention when the Vikings beat the 49ers. And then when the team held the high-flying Houston Texans to just seven points, that’s when things started to look really, really good – with the defense as the anchor point.
Through five weeks, the Vikings have allowed just 76 points (15.2 per game). By all metrics, this defense is humming. They rank first in total team DVOA, first in pass defense DVOA, and first in rush defense DVOA.
Their overall DVOA rating of -37.1% is dominant, the sixth-best figure by any team through five games since 1979. It’s safe to say that so far this year, the Vikings defensive performance has been historic.
(Granted, so was the 2016 Vikings defense at this point. They had allowed just 12 points per game and had a -29.0% DVOA.)
The bad
Vikings fans should probably be a little nervous about the fact the team gave up 22 points to the Packers in the fourth quarter and 10 points to the 49ers in the fourth quarter. Jordan Love threw for 389 yards and four touchdowns. Brock Purdy had over 300, and Jordan Mason went for 100 on the ground as well in that game.
They came home with the wins in those games, but they got a little closer than they needed to be.
The Vikings Offense
The good
The pass offense has been good. They rank seventh in the league in offensive passing DVOA behind the Ravens, 49ers, Bills, Commanders, Bengals, and Packers. The pass DVOA is 29.6%, well above league average.
Justin Jefferson still looks like the best receiver in football, with the possible exception of Ja’Marr Chase. Jordan Addison has done very little when healthy (just three catches in every game), but Jalen Nailor has stepped up with three scores on the year.
And, of course, Sam Darnold has been looking great in this system with these weapons. Until he faced a tough Jets defense — which was a terrible game for Darnold — he had been dealing. Darnold’s passer rating on the season is 103.4 and he has 11 touchdowns against four interceptions.
The bad
The rushing offense is well below league average (-10.1% DVOA, 22nd), which drags the entire offense down because the team has been run-heavy. The Vikings have run the ball 48.1% of the time, 10th in the NFL.
They are also slow on offense, having taken only 59 snaps per game, eighth in the NFL.
Ideally, a great defense (like the Vikings appear to have) would have a symbiotic relationship with a great running game (which the Vikings do not appear to have).
And what happens if the Vikings are playing from behind? Darnold has only thrown the ball more than 30 times in a game once this season – and it was by far his worst game of the year. That’s a huge question mark and a major risk factor for this team.
The Verdict on the 2024 Vikings
At this point in the season, I think it’s safe to say the Vikings are among the league’s best and most well-rounded teams. The odds of a 2016-like collapse are tiny, and the team is miles better than the 2022 fraud squad.
But Vikings fans might want to hold off on buying February flights to New Orleans. As far as No. 1-through-five-weeks teams go, the Vikings are among the worst, and the offense has not been fully tested yet.
