Fantasy Football Numbers to Know: Week 5

Data plays a massive role in fantasy football. Especially for massive dorks like me who analyze this silly game every single day. And with all of the incredible data we have available at FTN Fantasy, it makes sense to utilize that information to help with fantasy football decisions.

So every Friday, I’ll run through some of my favorite stats for the week, helping you identify some of the best matchups in fantasy football. Be sure to check out the incredible FTN Fantasy StatsHub for a deep dive of all of our in-depth analytics.

Numbers to Know for Fantasy Football Week 5

Jayden Reed Ranks 5th in Targets off Pre-Snap Motion (5)

This is an absolute explosion spot for Reed and the Green Bay passing attack Sunday. Reed continues to be the focal point of the offense and with Jordan Love back, his ceiling is even higher. The Packers continue to scheme touches for their best wideout, as Reed ranks fifth in football in targets off pre-snap motion with five. That makes this an unbelievably advantageous matchup, as the Rams awful secondary is struggling off the play type. So far this season, Los Angeles is allowing the third-most touchdown passes (8), most yards per target (8.6), most yards per reception (12.6) and second-most EPA/target (0.34) on plays with pre-snap motion. And to make this matchup even better, the Rams are coughing up the eighth-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers.

17.3% of the Runs Against the Bills Have Gained 10-Plus Yards

That’s the third-worst rate in the NFL, and after watching what Derrick Henry did to this run defense last week, it shouldn’t come as much of a surprise. Buffalo’s run defense has always been the avenue to attack this unit and with Joe Mixon once again unlikely to play, fantasy players have to make a decision on Cam Akers again. He’s undoubtedly been underwhelming but this matchup is so, so good. Buffalo also surrenders a league-worst 3.6 yards before contact per attempt, as well as the most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields. Akers could also add some early down receptions to his stat line, as the Bills deploy Cover-2 at a top-five rate in football. As a result of keeping everything in front of them, Buffalo is currently allowing the most receptions (7.0) and second-most targets (8.3) to opposing backfields on the season. I’m not saying Akers finally delivers a top-20 performance in Week 5, but there’s a chance.

Brian Thomas Jr. Is Averaging 4.6 Yards Per Route Run Against Cover-3

That is good for the sixth-best mark among qualified receivers through four weeks. Thomas has been the best player in Jacksonville’s offense this year, which isn’t saying much, but there’s no doubt he’s been impressive. Coming off a game where he caught six passes for 86 yards and a touchdown, Thomas now has consecutive outings with nine targets, as he continues to emerge as this team’s WR1. He has a great matchup to keep it going this week. No team plays more Cover-3 than the Colts, while Thomas ranks sixth in YPRR (4.6) and second in targets (9) against the defense. We’ve also seen the Colts surrender some huge days to opposing wideouts this season including Stefon Diggs (6-33-2), Nico Collins (6-117-0), Rome Odunze (6-112-1) and George Pickens (7-113-0).

Breece Hall Is Averaging 0.4 Yards Before Contact Per Attempt

Only the Bills’ Ray Davis (0.3) has been worse among qualified running backs to start the season. Hall has struggled with efficiency so far this year, failing to eclipse 62 rushing yards in any of his first four games. Braelon Allen seems to be doing more with his opportunities and could be in line for some more work going forward. Hall is still going to see plenty of touches and should remain in fantasy lineups. However, you might want to temper expectations this week. The Jets travel to London to face an elite, chaotic Minnesota defense that just so happens to be surrendering the fewest yards before contact per rush attempt in all of football (1.2).

Tee Higgins Has Seen 29.9 Expected Fantasy Points Since Making His Season Debut in Week 3

Higgins is perhaps my favorite buy-low candidate in all of fantasy football right now. Since making his season debut in Week 3, he is averaging a solid 8.0 targets per game, running a route on over 90% of Cincinnati’s dropbacks. He also has two end zone targets and three looks from inside the 10-yard line. In Week 3 against the Commanders, Higgins easily could have scored two touchdowns, but Joe Burrow threw the ball a bit too high on his first end zone target, followed by a one-handed drop on a goal line fade later in the game. As a result, Higgins has scored more than 10 fewer fantasy points than expected. Cincinnati’s offense looks good, and Higgins is plenty involved. Against a Ravens defense allowing the 13th-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers, Higgins should put it all together.