NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Below you’ll see a few fantasy hockey busts to avoid in your 2024-25 NHL drafts. Some of the reasons to fade these particular players in fantasy hockey drafts have to do with injuries, old age, regression or new environments that have changed their outlook.
It’s important to keep in mind the scoring settings of your league. Don’t confuse real life with fantasy. Some skaters may be great assets in leagues with just goals and assists, but they are not as valuable in leagues that count hits, shots, blocks and face-off wins.
High-stakes leagues and Underdog Fantasy leagues award players who shoot, hit and block shots. It’s certainly fine to take players who won’t touch those categories as much as others, but adjust throughout your draft, especially in roto leagues. I try to target players who touch a lot of categories with a chance at power-play time.
Before you read on, here are my Fantasy Hockey Rankings for the 2024-25 season. Also, make sure to read through our entire Fantasy Hockey Draft Guide.
Fantasy Hockey Busts
Brad Marchand, LW, Boston Bruins
At 36 years old, Marchand’s best days are behind him. He’s still a great player, and he can touch a lot of categories for you, but his ADP is high. Marchand has had back-to-back seasons with 67 points, but that’s his ceiling. There are 80-point players going after him in drafts, including Aleksander Barkov, Vincent Trocheck and Jesper Bratt.
Mark Stone, RW, Vegas Golden Knights
Unfortunately, you can’t bank on a full season from Mark Stone. He’s nearly a point-per-game player when he’s healthy, but he’s only played 60+ games once since 2016. The Golden Knights offense took a hit with the loss of Jonathan Marchessault and Chandler Stephenson, who skated on a line with Stone.
Mason Marchment, LW, Dallas Stars
Yahoo Sports has Marchment ranked at 124, which is shocking. Marchment had moments last season, but he wasn’t even a top-200 player. He really shouldn’t be drafted in standard 12-team leagues. He had a fine season and can chip in with a few hits, but he’s not in the top six and not on the first power play. He’ll be on waivers throughout the season.
Gustav Nyquist, LW, Nashville Predators
Nyquist was our guy last season, especially in the betting market. He should still get overlooked when it comes to point props since he’ll likely keep his spot on the top line. However, he should lose his top spot on the first power play.
Shea Theodore, D, Vegas Golden Knights
Theodore can create with his skating abilities and offensive awareness, which makes him very special. The addition of Noah Hanifin limits his ceiling. Theodore isn’t a lock for PP1 duties and Vegas may take a step back offensively. Theodore has missed time in each of the last two seasons, and he won’t provide much in leagues with hits and blocks. Theodore is a better real-life player than a fantasy player.
Jeremy Swayman, G, Boston Bruins
I have some shares of Swayman in best ball formats, but he’s a risky pick at the moment. He has all the leverage in contract negotiations, as the Bruins decided to trade Linus Ullmark before signing Swayman. If I’m Boston, I lock up Swayman immediately, and that may happen before the season starts, but it’s also possible it doesn’t get done until November. If you’re a dynasty owner or Boston fan, you hope he’s training in the meantime.
There’s no question Swayman has top-five upside at the goalie position, but I’m looking elsewhere in my money leagues. If you feel strongly about Swayman, take Joonas Korpisalo near the end of the draft. If he struggles to start the season (likely), the Bruins will be forced to sign Swayman earlier. I don’t mind taking both Boston goalies, as that was a strategy that worked out last season. I’m also fine without Swayman. I moved him outside my top five at goalie in my fantasy hockey rankings.
Others to Fade
- Jack Eichel, C, Vegas Golden Knights
- Blake Coleman, C/RW, Calgary Flames
- Brent Burns, D, C, Carolina Hurricanes
- Vince Dunn, D, Seattle Kraken
- Owen Power, D, Buffalo Sabres
- Evander Kane, LW, Edmonton Oilers (hurt)
- Patrik Laine, LW, Montreal Canadiens (hurt)
- Luke Hughes, D, New Jersey Devils (hurt)
- Drew Doughty, D, Los Angeles Kings (hurt)
- Ilya Sorokin, G, New York Islanders
- Thatcher Demko, G, Vancouver Canucks (hurt)
- Frederik Andersen, G, Carolina Hurricanes
I don’t mind Andersen’s price at Underdog Fantasy, but he’s going too early in Yahoo and ESPN leagues. I’d rather take the value with Pyotr Kochetkov, who I expect to be more consistent. I have a hard time trusting Demko’s health and expect the Canucks to regress. I listed Sorokin because Patrick Roy may play Semyon Varlamov more than we think. Maybe I’m looking into last year’s usage and their former relationship too much. Sorokin should be fine, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Sergei Bobrovsky, Jacob Markstrom and Stuart Skinner had better fantasy seasons.
Expect Regression
- Brandon Hagel, W, Tampa Bay Lightning
- Frank Vatrano, C/LW, Anaheim Ducks
- Sam Reinhart, C/RW, Florida Panthers
- Steven Stamkos, C/LW, Nashville Predators
- Brock Boeser, RW, Vancouver Canucks
- Josh Morrissey, D, Winnipeg Jets
- Filip Hronek, D, Vancouver Canucks
- Sean Durzi, D, Utah Hockey Club
I don’t mind drafting Reinhart knowing he may only score 35-40 goals. The same applies for Stamkos. If you’re going to draft Vatrano, make sure you play with shots on goal.
