WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Pick 6 is the Game You NEED to Play
I’m stubborn. I don’t like change. I’m pressed for time every week. So, I didn’t give DraftKings’ Pick 6 much of a chance for a while. But I should have — the game is fun, it’s simpler and more time efficient than traditional DFS (which will forever be my greatest love in the space), and the edge is enormous… for now. I’m hooked, and you will be too (get free money with promo code FTN).
Pick 6 has three major advantages, all stemming from the fact that it’s peer-to-peer instead of you against “them” (DraftKings):
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- We won’t get limited if we’re too successful
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- We can correlate as much as we want
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- We can make strategic choices to increase our payouts
This first point is crucial — I’m limited to $5 per play on PrizePicks despite the fact that my unit size was never greater than $50. What fun is that? What’s the point of grinding out profit each week if doing so is going to actively prevent you from doing the same in the future? On DraftKings’ Pick 6, that will never happen.
The next two advantages can be split into separate strategy discussions, as we want to treat Pick 6 as two entirely different games based on the type of slate we’re playing. Before we can talk strategy, though, we have to understand how the game works.
Pick 6 Payouts
Payouts are determined by how many people get all their picks correct relative to expectation. Take TwoGun’s $50k win for example:
Only 0.6% of entries went 6/6, so payouts skyrocketed to over 100x. Meanwhile, in Monday night’s Bengals/Commanders shootout, over 3.5% of 6-pick entries were all correct, so payouts fell to around 15x. If you play all the chalk and end up with a lower than estimated payout, the game is not rigged against you — you just haven’t learned how to play it yet.
Our strategy should always start with understanding what kind of payout we can and should be striving for.
Sunday Slates
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