Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
With so many fantasy football star players dealing with serious injuries, taking a deep dive into usage rates is going to be as important as ever.
Each week our usage report will look at one utilization stat that was noticeable and explain what that might mean for fantasy football moving forward.
Fantasy Football Usage Report Through Week 3
AFC East
Buffalo Bills: Keon Coleman seeing very little usage
With the Jaguars/Bills game being out of hand quite early in the game, and the fact that it was revealed that he was benched for the first quarter due to being late for practice, Keon Coleman’s 30% snap rate (20 snaps) should be too alarming, but when you consider he only got one touch in 20 snaps (albeit, a touchdown), it’s hard to believe that he’s going to be one of Josh Allen’s preferred targets on a weekly basis.
Miami Dolphins: De’Von Achane is probably the safest fantasy option on the roster
With the woeful combination of Skylar Thompson and Tim Boyle under center, there’s not much to like about the Dolphins roster from a fantasy standpoint even with a lineup that’s loaded with talent. Perhaps the addition of Tyler Huntley will change things for the better, but when it comes down to it, the only person I think will have the volume regardless of the quarterback is De’Von Achane. Achane still received 71.4% of the snaps at RB (40 snaps) even with the game being a blowout. His 16 opportunities (carries and targets) with the ball were more than Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Jonnu Smith, Braxton Berrios, Tanner Conner and Erik Ezukanma combined.
New England Patriots: DeMario Douglas the WR1
DeMario Douglas had been neck-and-neck with K.J. Osborn as the preferred WR option for Jacoby Brissett and the Patriots, but after Osborn saw 75% of the snaps (39 snaps) with a grand total of zero targets compared to Douglas’s 83% snap rate (43 snaps) and 9 targets, it suggests that Douglas’s spot in the lineup is much safer than Osborn’s, especially with the rookie Ja’Lynn Polk looming in the background.
New York Jets: Tyler Conklin 2nd in targets
Tyler Conklin started the Aaron Rodgers era with a quiet first two weeks of the season, but Thursday, he ended the Jets’ most successful game on offense with the second-most targets with 6 and tied with Garrett Wilson for the most catches with 5. Conklin already has among the highest overall snap rates in the league (91.7%), which also happens to be the highest from the TE position.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens: Ravens want to control games through Derrick Henry
The Ravens absolutely dominated their contest with the Cowboys. Once they got out to a quick lead, they continued to feed Derrick Henry the ball. Henry saw a season-high 59% of the snaps (37) and had 26 touches with those snaps. His 45.6% overall touch rate was the sixth highest among RB.
Cincinnati Bengals: Andrei Iosivas still fantasy viable with Tee Higgins back
With the WR position becoming thinner as the injuries pile up throughout the league, it’s certainly nice to see Tee Higgins back in the lineup. But don’t forget about Iosivas even with Higgins on the field. He tied Ja’Marr Chase with 7 targets and caught 1 of those passes in the end zone for his third score of the season. Most importantly, he has caught all 3 of his touchdowns in the end zone, which puts him in a tie with Malik Nabers and Jalen Nailor for the league lead.
Cleveland Browns: D’Onta Foreman not getting enough volume
Jerome Ford’s RB1 status is going to be safe as long as Nick Chubb doesn’t take the field. Ford was on the field for 79% of the snaps (53 snaps) in Week 3 while Foreman only received 16% of the snaps (11 snaps). It’s possible that Foreman is going to be viable is deep leagues as the goal line back, but we don’t even know for sure because the Browns never ran the ball in the red zone.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Van Jefferson’s reign of terror might have come to an end
After leading the Steelers WR room in snaps and accumulating a total of 15 receiving yards over his first two games, Van Jefferson only saw 16% of the snaps (11 snaps) this past week against the Chargers while Calvin Austin III saw 54% (37) and Scotty Miller saw 56%.
AFC South
Houston Texans: RB room is ugly without Joe Mixon
Unsurprisingly, Cam Akers (43%) and Dare Ogunbowale (42%) saw a relatively even share of the RB snaps, but it should definitely be noted that the Texans were trailing virtually the entire game, so it made more sense to see Ogunbowale the field in passing situations. The other surprising note is that J.J. Taylor and British Brooks saw time on the field as well. It’s very possible that Akers stays on the field more often in the weeks ahead if Mixon misses more time, and the Texans aren’t uncharacteristically playing from behind.
Indianapolis Colts: Adonai Mitchell virtually non-existent with Josh Downs back
Anthony Richardson’s limitations have really stagnated the Colts WR room, but for Adonai Mitchell, Josh Downs’ return was seemingly the death blow because Mitchell only saw the field for a total of 6 offensive snaps and only ran routes on 2 of them.
Jacksonville Jaguars: It’s ugly in Jacksonville, but Christian Kirk shows signs of life
After catching just 2 passes on 7 targets over the first two weeks of the season, Christian Kirk was Trevor Lawrence’s primary target in Week 3, bringing in 8 catches on 10 targets for 79 yards.
Tennessee Titans: Still plenty of room for more DeAndre Hopkins
Even after coming off his best game of the season where he led the Titans with 6 receptions on 7 targets for 73 yards and a touchdown, DeAndre Hopkins has even more upside when you consider he still saw less than 50% of the offensive snaps this past Sunday against the Packers. They are clearly being cautious with Hopkins right now, but with an 0-3 record, I think Hopkins’s snap counts are inevitably going to shoot up.
AFC West
Denver Broncos: Courtland Sutton alive
The Broncos had their best game of the season and Courtland Sutton saw 30.6% of the targets (11 targets) and caught 7 of them for 68 yards. One would assume that Denver’s success and Sutton’s increased touches probably isn’t coincidental, but regardless, it’s a pretty promising sight for those counting on the Broncos WR1.
Kansas City Chiefs: Carson Steele in a great situation
Carson Steele got the first start of his young NFL career and was rewarded with 17 carries and 18 touches, including a whopping 6 red zone touches and 1 goal line touch. The Andy Reid system has produced countless league winning players out of the backfield, so Steele is in great hands as long as he continues to get touches.
Las Vegas Raiders: Pump the brakes on Zamir White
After coming off his highest usage game in an upset against the Ravens, we saw Zamir White get just 22% of the snaps (14 snaps) at the RB position against the Panthers. Yes, it’s good that he got a whopping 10 touches off those 14 snaps, but he still isn’t making much happen with those touches. Even worse for White is that we continue to see a healthy dose of Alexander Mattison at the goal line.
Los Angeles Chargers: Gus Edwards falling out of favor
Last week, I talked about how the split between J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards continued to be relatively even. But this past Sunday against the Steelers, we saw Dobbins get significantly more snaps (30 vs. 16) and significantly more touches (18 vs. 3) than Edwards.
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys: Rico Dowdle slowly emerging as the RB1
Rico Dowdle has clearly been the best RB in the room for the Cowboys, but he hadn’t seen the number of snaps and touches to support that notion until Sunday against the Ravens, when he saw 46% of the snaps and got 11 total touches, which was more than Ezekiel Elliott an Deuce Vaughn’s touches combined (7).
New York Giants: Wan’Dale Robinson is Daniel Jones’s 2nd-favorite target
Wan’Dale Robinson continues to get the third-most snaps at the WR position for the Giants but also continues to get the second-most targets. He caught 7 balls on 8 targets for 61 yards against the Browns and might be in position to get an increase in snaps with Darius Slayton dealing with the thumb injury.
Philadelphia Eagles: Might be a one-man show in Philly
With injuries to A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and even Britain Covey, the Eagles receiver room is thinner than paper. It was made quite clear in Philadelphia’s comeback victory against the Saints this past weekend where Goedert was being force-fed the ball for 10 receptions on 11 targets for 170 yards. The other options on the field besides Goedert, Smith and Saquon Barkley saw a combined 8 receptions on 11 targets for 53 yards.
Washington Commanders: Terry McLaurin WR1, everyone else combined is WR2
Terry McLaurin led all Commanders receivers again with 85% of the snaps (50 snaps) while five other receivers (Dyami Brown, Luke McCaffrey, Noah Brown, Jamison Crowder, Olamide Zaccheaus) also saw time on the field.
NFC North
Chicago Bears: Roschon Johnson is the RB2 and has a shot to get even more snaps
After being a healthy scratch the first two games of the season, Roschon Johnson got his first playing time of the season, and took 37% of the snaps. He also got 12 touches compared to D’Andre Swift’s 15 touches and looked far more efficient than the stymied Swift.
Detroit Lions: Tim Patrick is the WR3
Kalif Raymond took only 7% of the snaps (5 snaps) against the Cardinals while Tim Patrick took 50% of the snaps (34 snaps). With Patrick officially being signed to the active roster, it’s only a matter of time before Patrick is going to be as impactful for the Lions as the player who he swapped places with in Denver, Josh Reynolds.
Green Bay Packers: Romeo Doubs’ time will come
The Packers have a six-headed monster at the WR position, with Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, Dontayvion Wicks, Bo Melton and Malik Heath each taking at least 11 offensive snaps this past week against the Titans. While Doubs ended his day with just 1 catch on 2 targets for 18 yards, it’s the usage numbers that are promising with the return of Jordan Love around the corner. Doubs led Packers receivers with 73% of the snaps (46 snaps) and a 90.9% route participation percentage.
Minnesota Vikings: Jalen Nailor nearly a must play while Jordan Addison remains sidelined
The Vikings are running a ton of two-receiver sets and they all feature both Justin Jefferson and Jalen Nailor. This past week, Jefferson and Nailor both ran 100% of the routes and scored on their lone red zone targets. Nailor has also led the team with 4 end zone targets this season — doubling Jefferson’s 2.
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons: Kyle Pitts’ snap counts have dropped every game this season
Kyle Pitts can no longer place the blame on Arthur Smith. Pitts only saw 69% of the snaps (42 snaps) against the Chiefs while watching Drake London, Darnell Mooney and Ray-Ray McCloud each seeing at least 93% of the snaps (61, 57 and 58 snaps respectively).
Carolina Panthers: Diontae Johnson in good hands with Andy Dalton at QB
Unsurprisingly, Diontae Johnson led Panthers receivers by taking 86% of the snaps (64 snaps), but with those snaps, he saw a whopping 14 targets, netting him 8 receptions for 122 yards and a touchdown. Even better, Johnson saw 4 end zone targets, with 1 of those targets being his touchdown.
New Orleans Saints: Alvin Kamara might be a bell cow
With Taysom Hill out of the lineup, Alvin Kamara saw 86% of the snaps (48 snaps) behind Derek Carr and got 29 touches out of those 48 snaps. The only other option at RB for the Saints was Jamaal Williams, who only got 2 touches in his 10 snaps.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Scary times for Rachaad White believers
While Rachaad White took the field on 74% of the snaps (42 snaps), he somehow got fewer touches than Bucky Irving who was on the field for just 32% of the snaps (18 snaps). Irving looks like the far more dynamic back and is clearly someone the Bucs are trying to get more touches for.
NFC West
Arizona Cardinals: Trey McBride isn’t being used in the red zone
Trey McBride had another week where he wasn’t targeted in the end zone, which means through 3 weeks, he has yet to receive even 1 target in the end zone. On the other hand, Marvin Harrison Jr. has brought in 2 touchdowns from his 5 end zone targets.
Los Angeles Rams: Rams more comfortable with Tutu Atwell than Jordan Whittington
With both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua out of the lineup, Demarcus Robinson is the only receiver who continues to see at least 90% of the snaps. While Tutu Atwell didn’t see more than 20% of the snaps in each of the previous two weeks, he ended Sunday’s upset against the 49ers with a team-leading 4 catches on 5 targets, including a few huge fourth-quarter grabs that were needed for the win.
San Francisco 49ers: Jauan Jennings elite with Deebo Samuel and George Kittle out
Jauan Jennings received more than 80% of the snaps for the first time since Week 8 of the 2023 season, and that was also when Deebo Samuel was out of the lineup. The big difference in the 2023 game is that George Kittle also took the field, and that resulted in Kittle getting 9 catches for 149 yards. I wouldn’t assume Jennings produces anything remotely close to what he did against the Rams unless both Samuel and Kittle remain out.
Seattle Seahawks: Zach Charbonnet continues to dominate the backfield without Kenneth Walker
Even with the Seahawks comfortably leading the entire game against the Dolphins, Zach Charbonnet still saw 84% of the snaps (54 snaps) out of the backfield, ending the day with 21 touches, 107 all-purpose yards, and 2 touchdowns.
