Week 4 NFL Moneyline Underdogs

Leave it to the FTN moneyline underdog column to pick one of the few big underdogs that didn’t cash in Week 3. 

Jacksonville’s offensive struggles continued at Buffalo and the Jaguars’ injuries on defense were too much to overcome as the Bills throttled the Jaguars 47-10. We now head to Week 4 to get back on the profitable side for the season. 

Each week, I will give you my favorite moneyline underdogs who I believe have the best chance to pull the outright upset. These are high-risk plays for a reason — they will not hit at a normal rate. However, when they do hit, we often get enough of a payout to keep our bankroll replenished. 

There won’t be a fixed number of games. It could be one, two or even three underdogs I like for the week. Here’s a look at my favorite moneyline underdogs for Week 4 of the 2024 season.

Week 4 NFL Moneyline Underdogs

Carolina +4.5 vs. Cincinnati

(+180, FanDuel Sportsbook)

The Bengals are broken. Through three weeks their offense ranks a pedestrian 19th overall in DVOA including just 21st in run offense DVOA. Cincinnati is just 28th in rushing yards per game (89.3) and the passing game has been limited by an injury to Tee Higgins and the constant unhappiness of Ja’Marr Chase. 

I was high on the Panthers entering the 2024 season, and the Panthers finally hit their stride with an impressive 36-22 win at Las Vegas. Andy Dalton is the only quarterback this season to throw for over 300 yards and three touchdowns. He unlocked wide receiver Diontae Johnson (8 receptions, 122 yards, TD) and facilitated the best all-around game (169 total yards, TD) in running back Chuba Hubbard’s career. 

The Panthers defense also came alive with three sacks and an interception as the Panthers jumped out to a 33-7 lead on the road. Everyone expected the Bengals to bounce back at home against a porous Washington defense. Now, they travel on the road against a revitalized Panthers offense with Andy Dalton primed for yet another revenge game. I still don’t think the public believes in the Panthers, so I’ll grab Carolina at +180 on the moneyline. 

Risk

1 Unit to Win 1.80 Units

Washington +3.5 at Arizona

(+185, Caesars)

The Cardinals defense ranks 23rd overall in defensive DVOA, including 29th in pass defense DVOA. They now have the challenge of facing a mobile quarterback, something they struggled to stop in Week 1 against Josh Allen. Washington has a very challenging offense with Daniels and a strong power running game with Brian Robinson. The Cardinals do not have enough defensive talent to limit a versatile offense without turnovers, and the Commanders have excelled at extending drives and limiting turnovers. 

The Cardinals could also be without a major offensive weapon, with tight end Trey McBride in concussion protocol. Arizona’s offensive line is still not strong, and the loss of McBride would eliminate a key offensive weapon for quarterback Kyler Murray. While rookie wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. has played well, the Commanders are coming off a strong defensive performance against Cincinnati. Washington’s pass defense was able to overcome an elite passing attack in Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase, defeating the Bengals 38-33 as a 7.5-point road underdog. The Commanders are playing well, limiting mistakes and have a dynamic dual-threat quarterback in Jayden Daniels. This is worth an investment in +185 against a Cardinals team with a poor defense that entered 2024 with a preseason projected win total of just 6.5.

Risk

1 Unit to Win 1.85 Units