Drops & Disasters: Fantasy Baseball Roster Moves (9/22)

It’s hard to believe that we are heading into the final week of the MLB regular season and the NFBC fantasy season. It has been a long, fun ride. At the outset, I’d like to thank everyone who has read this column, either periodically or throughout the season, with special thanks to those who took the time to provide feedback along the way (which is always welcomed and appreciated). Given the number of decisions fantasy managers have to make every season – which figure grows exponentially when managing a lot of teams – mistakes will be made, and it is impossible to avoid regrettable drops (and, if you only have a few, you either are not being aggressive enough in FAAB or should be writing this column instead of me).

What I’ve tried to do is share my approach and strategies relating to FAAB, with a specific emphasis on the drop side of transactions. Many managers spend an inordinate amount of time researching FAAB targets and preparing their bids, and often too little time evaluating which players to drop. Hopefully, this column helped some of you make fewer regrettable drops than otherwise would have been the case and, if so, I’ll consider this endeavor to be a success. I’d also like to thank Vlad Sedler, for giving me this opportunity to write about fantasy baseball, and for lots of great advice and encouragement along the way, and Adam Young, who has done an awesome job editing my work throughout the season. It has been a blast, and I’m already looking forward to the 2025 draft season. Good luck to everyone still grinding for success this final week!

With those preliminaries covered, much of my advice for the final week is similar to recommendations dispensed throughout the season, particularly over the last few weeks. Here is a quick checklist for managers to consider before finalizing their final FAAB strings and drops for the 2024 season:

• The goal for this week is to maximize standings points. To do that, fantasy managers should take stock of where they sit in all 10 of the roto categories. While going after standings points within reach, try to reinforce categories where points are at risk. Adds and drops should reflect managers’ categorical needs. Players who contribute only to categories that no longer matter in the standings should be dropped.

• Playing time and matchups are critical. A platoon bat likely to sit is a potential drop, as are pitchers who managers have decided not to start due to unfavorable matchups. Fantasy managers should not forget to evaluate the recent playing time of their currently rostered players. (Are managers rostering Josh Bell aware he received zero starts this week?)

• Maximize roster flexibility for the final week. Because pitchers will lock for the week in NFBC leagues on Monday or Tuesday, I see no reason to roster more than 10 pitchers for the final week – the nine pitchers who managers intend to start and one pitcher as insurance in case an injury is announced between the final FAAB run and all teams locking. (Managers that lack sufficient FAAB funds to implement this recommendation – as I do in a few leagues – should prioritize their most important transactions, even if it means an extra, unused pitcher is rostered.)

• For hitters, managers should figure out their optimal starting lineups for the Monday through Thursday period and the Friday through Sunday period. When every stat assumes heightened importance, managers should strive to avoid unfavorable matchups and/or taking zeroes if a player gets hurt and no substitute at his position is rostered.

• For pitchers, take projections of next week’s starters with a big grain of salt. Despite best efforts and extreme diligence by folks making and updating such projections (and many kudos and thanks to them), they are battling moving targets that will shift and turn throughout the week. Generally speaking, make sure you like a starter’s first matchup for the week and realize that second starts projected for the final game of the season often will be changed or abbreviated.

• In evaluating adds, drops and lineup decisions, be cognizant of where players’ teams are in the standings. Teams that are locked into a playoff spot or have been eliminated from contention are more likely to rest players randomly and give pitchers abbreviated starts.

• Prepare for and accept that players will be rested, substituted out early, have starts curtailed, etc., this week. It can be extremely frustrating when grinding for every last stat, but realize for your own sanity that (i) this is normal and happens every season without exception during the final week, and (ii) it almost certainly is impacting your competitors in similar ways.

Some of the players should at least be considered as potential drops this week are set forth below in the following two tables – the first includes hitters and the second includes pitchers. In addition to the player’s name, team and position, the tables include the player’s ownership percentage in the premier 15- and 12-team contests: the NFBC’s Main Event and Online Championship, respectively. Finally, the tables list my rankings as to how strongly – or not – I feel each particular player should be dropped in those 15-team and 12-team formats, respectively. The key to these rankings, from 0-4, is as follows:

• 0 = Do not drop
• 1 = Team context dependent; probably should not be dropped on most teams
• 2 = Team context dependent; compelling arguments to drop and not drop
• 3 = Team context dependent; probably should be dropped on most teams
• 4 = Drop

There are a lot of potential hitter and pitcher drops this week. Therefore, in order to cover as many players as possible, I will be more concise than usual about individual players. I also have focused on players not covered recently unless news or circumstances changed this past week.

Potential Hitter Drops

Initially, fantasy managers seeking to maximize playing time during the final week should consider dropping marginal hitters on the Guardians and Reds. Those are the only two teams with five games remaining, while the other 28 teams all play six games this week. Thus, while all teams are scheduled for three games during the Friday through Sunday period, the Guardians and Reds will only play two games – compared to other teams’ three games – during the Monday through Thursday period. It also is worth noting that the Reds play both series this week on the road, meaning no more home games in the hitter-friendly confines of Great American Ball Park.

Following Friday night’s game, the Red Sox announced that Rafael Devers’ shoulder, which clearly was bothering him and affecting his throwing if not also his hitting, was getting an MRI and would be shut down for the remainder of 2024. Shortly thereafter, Devers was placed on the IL, ending his 2024 season. Fantasy managers should drop Devers in all formats.

On Tuesday, Steven Kwan was placed on the IL with back inflammation. Kwan had not played since September 12, and initial reports described his injury as “body fatigue.” Kwan is not eligible to return until Friday, and it is uncertain whether he will do so and, if so, how much he will play this coming weekend. While the Guardians will surely want to get Kwan some at bats if healthy enough, it seems unlikely that they would play him all weekend or that he would attempt to steal a base in what may be meaningless games. Absent the prospect of stolen bases, Kwan only can help in two categories (R, AVG) and is likely to hurt teams in two categories (HR, RBI). Fantasy managers having the roster space could stash Kwan for the Friday through Sunday period if prioritizing runs and/or average; other managers would be better served by dropping him tonight.

Daulton Varsho was placed on the IL on Tuesday with a shoulder strain. Varsho apparently had been playing with the injury for some period of time, until the Blue Jays decided it was time to shut him down. Varsho is scheduled to undergo rotator cuff surgery and is done for the season. Thus, fantasy managers should drop Varsho tonight in all formats.

Diamondbacks catcher Adrian Del Castillo is off to a fantastic start to his MLB career, hitting .313 with 4 HR, 12 R, 19 RBI and 1 SB in his first 80 at bats. Del Castillo is rostered in two-thirds of Main Event leagues and half of Online Championship leagues. Unfortunately for Del Castillo’s fantasy managers, Gabriel Moreno was activated from the IL last Sunday and, the following day, Del Castillo was demoted to Triple-A. He should be universally dropped tonight.

After not playing last weekend, rookie Will Wagner was placed on the 60-day IL Tuesday due to left knee inflammation, ending his 2024 season (2 HR, 8 R, 11 RBI, 0 SB, .305 AVG in 82 AB). Wagner is a timely reminder that when players are benched more than usual without explanation, it often is due to an undisclosed injury (that, as fate will have it, will be disclosed after a FAAB run). Wagner now should be dropped.

Bo Bichette apparently was not done punishing fantasy managers. After putting up horrible stats through the first half of the season, Bichette suffered a calf strain that kept him out from July 19 through September 16. While stashes sometimes can be very profitable, they also are risky propositions. This column has discussed extensively some of the risks of stashing players, including, but not limited to: (1) IL stints can last longer than expected; (2) players often suffer setbacks or reinjure themselves; and (3) players idled by injury often post subpar stats upon activation. Bichette hit .400 upon his return. Unfortunately, that return was limited to one game, as he suffered a finger contusion on September 17, his first game back. Bichette missed the Blue Jays’ next game, and then the team placed him back on the IL with a finger fracture, ending an extremely disappointing 2024 season. Bichette should be dropped wherever rostered tonight.

Willson Contreras has been out since August 24 with a fractured finger. While there was some hope Contreras would return during the final weeks of the season, on Monday the Cardinals ruled him out for the rest of the season. Thus, Contreras should be dropped everywhere tonight.

In addition to monitoring the health of rostered players and prospective acquisitions, fantasy managers need to monitor matchups, especially at the end of the season. Two examples of potential matchup-related drops that are widely rostered are Michael Massey and MJ Melendez of the Royals. Both Massey and Melendez currently occupy strong-side platoon roles and sit against left-handed starters. This coming week, the Royals have six games, and they are projected to face lefties in the first four of those games. With the prospect of limited playing time when every stat matters so much, I think it is tough to roster either Massey or Melendez for this coming week.

Similarly, the Mariners are scheduled to face left-handed starters in four of their six games this coming week. Luke Raley and Josh Rojas sit regularly versus lefties, and so next week’s schedule seemingly renders them unusable for fantasy. The only possible exception I can see from this conclusion is if fantasy managers only care about stolen bases among the five hitting categories and are desperate for speed from a corner infield position, irrespective of playing time concerns. In all other contexts, both players should be dropped tonight.

Whit Merrifield’s play arguably has made him a potential drop for some time, but fantasy managers holding on hoping for a speed infusion can safely drop him tonight now that Ozzie Albies has returned. Merrifield’s playing time will be reduced significantly, or disappear entirely, with Albies’ activation. In any event, despite having a nearly full-time role for quite some time, Merrifield hasn’t stolen a base since August 18 and, absent steals, really provides no useful fantasy value.

Catcher/utility man David Fry has had a strong season but has started only one game this past week. With the Guardians having only five games this week and none versus a left-handed starter, Fry should be dropped. Similarly, the Twins’ Jose Miranda was benched for four of six games this past week. While Miranda is a solid bat for average (but little else), he may be tough to rely upon for the final week of games.

When playing regularly, Josh Bell is a perfectly cromulent option at corner infield. The problem for Bell’s fantasy managers, however, is that Bell’s playing time has disappeared with the return of Christian Walker. If anything, the recent activation of Lourdes Gurriel Jr. off the IL will make at bats ever scarcer for Bell. In the Diamondbacks’ last six games, Bell has exactly zero starts. Absent the prospect of a full-time role, I see no reason to roster Bell for the final week.

With increased exposure to Eloy Jiménez, the Orioles have discovered what many of us have long suspected – he just isn’t that good. Jiménez’s playing time has dried up (only one start this week) and, with only one home run since May 15, it is not like the team is missing much. Those fantasy managers still rostering Jiménez should review his playing time and production and then drop him tonight.

Jonny DeLuca now has not started in three of Tampa Bay’s last six games. With a .213 AVG and only 6 HR, fantasy managers presumably are rostering him for speed (16 SB), but it is tough to steal bases from the bench. I do not view DeLuca as an elite base-stealer and, therefore, if hunting bags in the final week, there may be better, more active options available, especially in 12-team leagues.

Coby Mayo is an elite prospect but was playing irregularly for the Orioles and doing very little during his limited opportunities. Yesterday, even those opportunities dried up as Baltimore demoted Mayo to Triple-A with veteran Ramón Urias coming back. Fantasy managers rostering Mayo should drop him.

Potential Pitcher Drops

Bobby Miller laid a big (and, mercifully, final) egg for 2024 at Miami on Tuesday and the Dodgers, desperate for starting pitching, decided they weren’t quite that desperate and demoted Miller to Triple-A. Thus, what seemed like a compelling two-start week (@ MIA and vs. COL) turned into two crappy innings with 4 earned runs (not that I’m bitter or anything). Miller finishes the 2024 season with 2 wins, 52 strikeouts, an 8.52 ERA and a 1.77 WHIP in 56 torturous innings – surely not what fantasy managers expected when bestowing ADPs of 55 and 66 in the Main Event and Online Championship, respectively, on Miller. It is difficult to identify many (if any) players whose performance was more disappointing for 2024 fantasy purposes than Miller. Bloodied managers rostering Miller this past week should cut him tonight.

Orioles general manager Mike Elias announced this past week that Grayson Rodriguez may pitch out of the bullpen when he’s activated off of the IL. Rodriguez has not pitched for Baltimore since July 31 and, with no rehab appearances in the minors since injuring his lat, apparently will not be built up sufficiently to resume a starter’s workload. Notwithstanding the Orioles’ release of Craig Kimbrel and Seranthony Domínguez’s recent struggles, there has been no word that Baltimore is planning on handing over its closer role to a rusty Rodriguez. Perhaps some fantasy managers may feel differently, but the prospect of Rodriguez coming back this week for one or two relief appearances does nothing for me. Managers still rostering Rodriguez should reevaluate that decision with the latest news.

Speaking of Kimbrel, now that he has been released, he’s an obvious drop tonight. Fantasy managers should not be rostering him for one day longer. If this is it for Kimbrel, congratulations on what should be a Hall-of-Fame career. (Younger fantasy managers are encouraged to look up Kimbrel’s stats from 2011-2018 to see what an eight-year period of sheer dominance looks like.)

Clay Holmes has lost his job as the Yankees closer. While unlucky at times, Holmes blew so many save opportunities that even manager Aaron Boone – who still loyally (and negligently) rolls Alex Verdugo out for regular starts – decided he needed to make a change. While some fantasy managers, including myself, speculated that the Yankees would look to get Holmes back into the closer role prior to the playoffs, I no longer think that will happen. Holmes has continued to pitch shakily and, meanwhile, Luke Weaver – who pitched to a 6.56 ERA as a reliever in 2022 and a 6.40 ERA as a starter in 2023 – has been fantastic this season (81.1 IP, 6 W, 3 SV, 98 K, 2.99 ERA, 0.95 WHIP), including the last few weeks when serving as the Yankees’ de facto closer. While it is possible that Holmes receives a random save opportunity this week, perhaps if/when Weaver needs a night off, there likely are better save speculations available for managers, especially in 12-team leagues. Except for fantasy managers desperate for saves and lacking better alternatives, Holmes is a drop.

This past week, a number of pitchers were placed on the IL and, in many cases, explicitly ruled out for the remainder of the 2024 season. Fantasy managers now should drop Paul Sewald (neck), Jeffrey Springs (elbow), James McArthur (elbow), Gavin Stone (shoulder), Sonny Gray (forearm tendinitis), Max Scherzer (hamstring), and Lance Lynn (knee). These pitchers either are ineligible to return this season, or their teams have indicated that they are unlikely to do so. If anyone returned, it would probably be Sewald, but it is difficult to envision him coming back as the closer and, therefore, the drop recommendation still applies.

Simeon Woods Richardson has had a solid rookie campaign. In 27 starts, he has pitched 125 innings, recording 5 wins, 115 strikeouts, a 4.00 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. Woods Richardson projects for a home start against the Marlins and, therefore, appears to be a compelling candidate to start (or acquire and start) this week. Before rushing to employ Woods Richardson, however, fantasy managers should be aware that the young pitcher has not reached the 5 IP needed to qualify for a win in any of his last five starts. In those starts, Woods Richardson pitched 20.1 innings and allowed 34 walks plus hits and 13 earned runs (5.75 ERA, 1.67 WHIP). Without question, Woods Richardson could pitch well against Miami, receive plenty of run support and coast for a much-needed win against a weaker opponent. Just realize that Twins manager Rocco Baldelli has a quick hook with young pitchers and, therefore, if Woods Richardson struggles early, it may be a short outing.

Earlier, I covered several hitters who should at least be considered as potential drops due to unfavorable matchups during the final week. Fantasy managers are advised to consider pitcher matchups, too. For instance, Erick Fedde and Walker Buehler, among others, will make their final starts of the season at Coors Field. In isolation, the Rockies have a below-average lineup and it’s possible that Fedde and Buehler could shut down Colorado and also be gifted with strong run support. That noted, fantasy managers have to decide whether they wish to risk ratio damage starting a mediocre or non-ace pitcher at Colorado. If only prioritizing wins and/or strikeouts, I can see utilizing pitchers such as Fedde and Buehler at Coors Field; I would not start either of them in leagues where ratios still are tight.

Kenley Jansen has been dealing with a shoulder issue, which recently caused him to miss a save opportunity, although he notched one save and made two appearances thus far this week. When healthy, Jansen clearly is the Red Sox closer and has had a strong season (53.2 IP, 61 K, 4 W, 27 SV, 3.29 ERA, 1.06 WHIP). The reason Jansen is included in this column, however, is the prospect that, given the shoulder issue and Boston’s elimination from playoff contention, the Red Sox could shut him down for the season. If they are going to do so, hopefully word to that effect will come out today before FAAB runs. If there is no news, I’d be reluctant to drop Jansen, and probably would start him if needing saves.

Robbie Ray currently is on the IL with a hamstring strain but says that he is hopeful to make another start before the end of the season. There is some speculation that Ray will start the Giants’ game on Wednesday at the Diamondbacks. If that does not happen, the Giants close the season with a three-game home series against the Cardinals. Rostering and starting Ray presents at least three risks for fantasy managers: (1) Ray may not be fully recovered this week and, if still injured, the Giants should not let him pitch; (2) Ray could feel well enough to make a start this week, but, having been idle since August 25, odds seem slim that he pitches for at least the five innings needed to qualify for a win; and (3) if Ray pitches, he could be mediocre or terrible, especially if starting on the road against the Diamondbacks, MLB’s highest-scoring team this season. To steal a fantasy-friendly saying, in this case the juice does not seem worth the squeeze.

Potential Disaster Starts

Set forth in the table below are starting pitchers I believe have real disaster potential for the coming week. In order to make this section of the column as actionable as possible, pitchers who are sparsely rostered have been excluded. Instead, I am challenging myself by focusing solely on pitchers who are at least 90% rostered in the Main Event or at least 60% rostered in the Online Championship. The pitchers are ranked from 1 to 10 for disaster potential in the coming week, with the highest numbers reflecting pitchers I am highly unlikely to start and who strike me as the biggest potential disasters. 

My disaster selections this past week were poor, ending a string of strong weeks. While my selections only had a single win, they produced stellar ratios, which obviously is not the intent here. Still, although things were a little rough going early, I felt like the season as a whole was successful in terms of projecting disaster starts, especially given the decision to limit myself to only highly rostered starting pitchers. Not including any stats that may be accumulated today, for the season my selections totaled a 4.47 ERA and 1.33 WHIP, while averaging less than a strikeout per inning. In the interests of accountability, set forth below are the results of my “disaster” picks per week for the entire season.