Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Week 1 of the college football season was outstanding for the FTN community, as we hit on the majority of our featured bets and also had a monster day of DFS results. We turn the page to Week 2, which presents with several intriguing spots to target. I will be highlighting the most advantageous props available and the reasons why we should be attacking them.
Mario Williams (Tulane) Over 34.5 Receiving Yards
(-115, Caesars)
“Super Mario” has been productive throughout the course of his collegiate career, which includes stops at Oklahoma and USC. He found a way to consistently make plays in an overly crowded receiver room with the Trojans but finds himself in an ideal situation with the Green Wave, where he is the unquestionable alpha WR1. He was targeted a team-high 5 times last week and reeled in 4 of those passes for 124 yards. That was in a massive blowout against an FCS team and most of the starters wound up sitting early.
Fast forward to this week and the Green Wave will be facing a solid Kansas State program and the spread sits around 9 points. This should be a competitive game, which means Mario will be peppered with targets all day long.
Grayson McCall (NC State) 275+ Passing Yards
(+200, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Nico Iamaleava (Tennessee) 275+ Passing Yards
(+125, DraftKings Sportsbook)
One of the more anticipated games of Week 2 is the Duke’s Mayo Classic Kickoff in Charlotte between NC State and Tennessee. Both offenses are littered with elite talent and looked their part in their Week 1 games.
I love the over 60.5 total in this game and am quite confident that both of the QBs in this matchup will play at a high level. McCall’s prop is laughable on PrizePicks and just about every other book to be honest. With an upgraded running game behind him in Jordan Waters and a receiver room that includes superstar Kevin Concepcion, reliable tight end Justin Joly and a litany of other sure handed wideouts, McCall is capable of sailing over this yardage total.
WCU pushed the Pack more than expected and McCall was able to complete 26 of his 40 passes for 318 yards. There is a lot of talk around the industry about the Vols secondary, but I’m not convinced they’re suddenly a shutdown group and they will have their work cut out for them against this offense.
On the other side we have Heisman hopeful Nico Iamaleava. WCU QB Cole Gonzales gave the NC State defense fits throughout the game and there is no reason to think Nico won’t be able to pick them apart as well. He was surgical against Chattanooga, completing 24 of his 28 passes for over 300 yards. His upside is stratospheric in this spot.
It doesn’t hurt that they have a group of receivers that are a tough cover for any opposing defense. Bru McCoy (6-89), Dont’e Thornton (3-105-2), Chris Brazzell (5-59) and Squirrel White (2-22) give Nico endless possibilities when it comes to throwing the football. Don’t be fooled by those stat lines either. Once it turned into a blowout it became unnecessary to throw the ball anymore. In a much closer contest, you can expect Nico to drop back 35-plus times making this yardage number very achievable.
