FAAB Whisperer: NFL Waiver Wire Strategy for Week 1

Welcome to FAAB Whisperer – my weekly free agent bidding and waivers projection column. You may use these FAAB projections in conjunction with Nelson Sousa’s FAAB sheet – Nelson’s Notebook. Both will focus primarily on mid to high-stakes formats such as NFFC and FFPC.

This column will be published every Wednesday morning of the regular season. I’ll break down the top FAAB targets at each position (QB, WR, RB, TE, DST, TK) with a priority order/ranking and a bid amount range for each player. Bid ranges will be based on a starting FAAB of $1,000.

Waiver Run Schedule:

• NFFC first run: Wednesday at 10 p.m. ET
• NFFC second run: Saturday at 1 p.m. ET
• FFPC first run: Wednesday at 10 p.m. ET
• FFPC second run: Sunday at 10 a.m. ET

The second FAAB run on the weekends allows fantasy managers an opportunity to field full and healthy starting lineups where they may otherwise get hit with a player trending towards being inactive.

I’ll use the $350 NFFC Online Championship (aka, the OC) as the basis for our weekly data, specifically the Roster% of each player. The $350 mid-stakes contest is the perfect framework as they inspire an extra level of seriousness and accountability from entrants, thereby providing a more realistic grasp of the market and projected bid results. Using the OC also allows for a large enough sample to draw from as there will be over 400 leagues (5,000 teams) in this national contest.

You can use the lists below to assist with Scott Fish Bowl (SFB14) waivers, which run at 1pm ET. Note that the FAAB is $100 there. Quarterbacks listed below won’t be available in SFB since it’s a SuperFlex league.

Week 1 Overview

This is a FAAB period to clean up draft day mistakes, take advantage of the two “free look” games (Ravens-Chiefs, Packers-Eagles), shore up depth and optimize our rosters. The free look is especially important to know as NFBC/FFPC fantasy managers who have players from these teams can decide whether to start them after the games have already occurred. The Ravens-Chiefs will play Thursday night (Sept. 5), the Packers-Eagles Friday night, and all lineups for both sites don’t lock until the start of Sunday’s games at 1 p.m. ET. ADP will shift greatly for the last day of drafts Saturday based on the results of these two games. For leagues that have drafted before Wednesday, it behooves us to consider cutting obvious drop candidates for fringe players from these two games (Samaje Perine, Kenneth Gainwell, Justin Watson, etc.) just in case they have a spike week so that you may start them in Week 1 and bank the fantasy points. There may be some tough decisions in this regard, but Nelson and I will help you navigate those in FTN High Stakes Discord this weekend.

Only players at 90% or under rostered (Roster%) in the NFFC OC are listed.

Quarterbacks

It goes without saying that if we’re adding one of these QBs to start in Week 1, we’ve royally screwed up in our draft. There will come a time later in the season when we’ll need to start them (bye week or starting QB injury), but for now they serve no purpose other than providing position depth. It is not advisable to add any of them as your QB3. Only consider bidding if you consider them an upgrade over your current QB2 such as Justin Fields, Bo Nix or Derek Carr.

The Panthers have one of the better strengths of schedule for passing offenses (on paper, that is). and there have been numerous positive reviews on how much improved the 2023 first overall draft pick Bryce Young has looked this summer. The Panthers won’t boast an elite offensive line, though they’ve upgraded last year’s unit, added veteran wideout Diontae Johnson and have QB-Whisperer Dave Canales installed as their new head coach.

Geno Smith should have been drafted as a QB2 in all 12-team formats as he will provide some spike weeks in a Ryan Grubb-led offense we expect to operate at a faster pace than in previous seasons. Many of us are expecting a next-level offensive bump from second-year wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

Running Backs

Samaje Perine and Jordan Mason will be the focal points of this first FAAB. Specifically Perine, since he’s joined the Kansas City Chiefs and will have a defined role in one of these Free Look games. Even more clarity now in his role with Clyde Edwards-Helaire being placed on the NFI list, which means he will be out for the first four games of the season. It’s very possible that my bid range ($120-$265) is on the low side as fantasy managers who drafted earlier this summer and whose RB depth has already taken a tumble will be spending upward of $400 for his services. As I wrote about in my FAAB Primer last week, those $250-plus bids in NFBC and FFPC had a 90% bust rate in 2023. Though most of those bids were speculation bids on bum bench backs and overpays on skill position players coming off a huge box score. Trust me, I’d love to undersell Perine and grab more shares in FAAB myself, but something tells me he’s not someone we should be conservative on.

We’re just one CMC IR stint away from Jordan Mason going to the moon. Christian McCaffrey (calf) is back at practice and should play in Week 1, but I’m big on gut feel and considering his preseason injury a bad omen. Of course, it’s possible that CMC stays healthy all season and once again crushes it, in which case, any dollars over $100 spent on Mason would end up being wasted. We should all be bidding on both, but Perine stands out as the priority.

Cam Akers’ ADP has been rising over the last few weeks as we read between the tea leaves that Akers will be Joe Mixon’s backup in Houston, not Dameon Pierce. After an impressive rookie season (220-939-4, 4.3 YPC, 30-165-1), Pierce took a massive step back (145-416-2, 2.9 YPC, 13-101-0), and Akers has looked much better in camp. Mixon is a plodder as well, but a high-volume one with a strong history of bell-cowing. It’s unlikely that Akers steals Mixon’s job, but he can certainly eat into his workload in time. If there’s one point I’ll be hammering home in this column all season it’s to not fall for groupthink and overreaction – at least not without a sanity check. That’s exactly what will happen when people see Akers was listed fourth on the Texans’ depth chart. Sharp high-stakes managers aren’t going to take this at face value, and will likely still be targeting him. The ESPN and Yahoo! sheep will be cutting him immediately. Don’t be an ESPN and Yahoo! sheep.

Hate to say “if something happens to RB X…”, but you’ll likely see that a lot in this column. So, yeah, if something happens to Derrick Henry, those Justice Hill shares skyrocket in value as he becomes a borderline every-week flex auto-start.

Both Kenneth Gainwell and Will Shipley can catch balls out of the backfield and will have a 15-plus-fantasy-point outing or two even with Saquon Barkley active, but who knows when, and good luck timing those. It’s possible that Shipley carves out a role ahead of Gainwell but that is likely later into the season. There will be leagues where they won’t be bid on and won Wednesday night. If either of them grabs five balls and a touchdown, you’ll be seeing $100-plus bids Saturday/Sunday for the locked-in fantasy points.

Wide Receivers

One of our favorite things to do in high stakes is to waste money at the WR position chasing previous weeks’ box scores. There are no box scores to chase this week but there are a couple of wideouts who should be 100% rostered – Jalen Tolbert and Jalen McMillan. Tolbert is one of my favorite late-round targets as I foresee an easy path to being the wideout earning the second-most targets behind CeeDee Lamb. If you’re spending $50-plus on rookie Jalen McMillan, make sure you have a plan to hold him – because it might be a long wait. Chris Godwin, Mike Evans and Rachaad White will be earning the bulk of targets early on. Noah Brown and Andrei Iosivas are two others I’d be looking to add for bench depth. The question to ask ourselves: who is our worst WR and is this an upgrade? Hard to say until the season starts, but I’d cut the following for either one of them: Luke McCaffrey, Malachi Corley, DJ Chark, Javon Baker, Tyler Boyd, Roman Wilson. Probably Quentin Johnston too, but I’d wait a week or two there.

Tight Ends

Juwan Johnson is getting slept on in drafts, and I believe it’s a big oversight. Derek Carr will be feeding Chris Olave and Alvin Kamara incessantly (as well as Rashid Shaheed with some deep balls) while Taysom Hill will vulture goal-line carries and Johnson continues to earn red zone targets. Johnson has a penchant for finding the end zone. He caught seven TD passes in 2022 (two 2-TD games), then caught three of his four TDs last season in the final four games. Johnson was activated off the active/PUP list in mid-August (foot surgery) and should slowly round back into form.

Jonnu Smith and Greg Dulcich are two personal favorites who could provide some spike weeks for us. Smith played four seasons with the Titans never exceeding 500 receiving yards in a season, then spent two years in Patriots Purgatory because he was just so darn good at blocking. He was a popular early-season waivers target with the Falcons last season. After scoring 15.5 PPR points in Week 4 (8-6-95-0), he followed that up with 7-6-67-0 in Week 5, 5-4-36-1 in Week 6, then a couple of quiet weeks before his best outing of the season in Week 9 against the Vikings (5-100-1). He’ll have his fair share of dud weeks, but something tells me Mike McDaniel will utilize him effectively in this offense. Dulcich is a young version of MLB’s Byron Buxton. He finds a way to get hurt every season going back to his college days. But boy is he good when he plays. Adam Trautman (fellow Denver TE) will be out there a ton because of his blocking ability, but Dulcich may be out there in 2-TE sets. A healthy Dulcich can be their third highest-volume pass-catcher (nervous laughter).

With Jelani Woods out for the season, there will be an opportunity for Kylen Granson to break out. What is most likely to occur is that he catches two touchdowns in some random week, we all bid $50+ on him the following week, and he drops a 0-0-0-0. Fantasy football is often cruel.

Cade Otton. As boring as cotton.

Defense/Special Teams

The five teams listed above are Week 1 streamers. The Bengals have been the most popular based on current drafts, but none of us can see the future. The chances of one of these other DSTs outscoring them are high. We also want to be careful overbidding since none of them are startable in Week 2. Here are their matchups:

• Bengals – at KC
• Saints – at DAL
• Bears – at HOU
• Raiders – at BAL
• Falcons – at PIT

I’m usually all about getting ahead of the masses for a Week 2 streamer, but I don’t advise doing that this weekend. Possibilities include the Commanders (vs. Giants), Seahawks (at Patriots) and that’s about it. Most of the top DSTs with a tough Week 1 matchup have a better one in Week 2.

Kickers/Team Kickers

Don’t spend more than a buck on a kicker unless a 95%-plus rostered one is available such as Jake Moody (49ers) or Evan McPherson (Bengals). It’s a lot safer in those NFFC streets where they use Team Kicker. At NFFC, it’s the individual kickers. Fret not, I’ll have lots of kicker analysis this season. In addition to FAAB Whisperer, I’ve been called the Kicker Whisperer (that’s mostly me calling myself that). But there are absolute edges to take advantage of (Vegas lines, offensive tendencies, matchups, weather, domes) and I’ll help you do that this season. Remember that Packers TK (Brayden Narveson) is a free look with that Packers-Eagles game taking place Friday night before lineups lock Sunday. If you add the Narve-Dog and he scores under 10 FP, just drop him for another TK/K in weekend FAAB.

Best of luck, and may you win all your bids by a dollar.