Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The final preseason game has concluded, and teams have pared down their rosters to 53 players. The 2024 NFL season is officially here.
Preseason practices and games give us plenty of opportunities to evaluate new talent entering the NFL and established players in new situations. Each game, practice report and social media clip can have a massive impact on free agency. That is also true for cutdown day. All of these data points matter for fantasy drafts.
In two weeks, fantasy managers will have drafted their teams and will be setting their lineups for the first time. That means it is almost the end of the ADP rumblings. Below, you’ll find the biggest movers since preseason games kicked off on 8/8. Use this article to understand who is moving up (and needs to be drafted earlier than throughout the summer) or players to fade (or draft at a value).
Fantasy Football ADP Rumblings (8/28)
Biggest Riser
Braelon Allen, RB, New York Jets
ADP: 160.2 (-28.5), RB51
Braelon Allen continues to rise through the ADP ranks thanks to a strong preseason. This past week, Allen gained steam for what he didn’t do, which was play in the third preseason game.
Allen didn’t log a snap in the Jets’ third preseason game, which seemingly indicates that the reports listing him as the RB2 behind Breece Hall heading into his rookie season. The rookie ended his preseason with 14 carries for 81 yards and two receptions for 12 yards in two games.
The Jets backfield seems like it will be dominated by Breece Hall (which is the expectation in fantasy given his status as a first-round pick), so securing his handcuff could have big implications given the workload he will command. While it is unlikely that Allen will take on the receiving role in the offense, he is still in the lead position to take over the bulk of the backfield touches if Hall were to be injured.
Allen’s price tag is still quite reasonable after his climb (RB51). He may not have much standalone value as long as Hall is healthy, but still needs to be rostered in all leagues given his massive upside as the RB2 with the Jets.
Biggest Faller
DJ Chark, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
ADP: 212.3 (+24.2), WR91
DJ Chark saw a rise in his ADP early in the offseason when he was getting reps with the first-team offense. However, that trend has quickly reversed now that preseason games have kicked off.
Reports indicate that a hip injury suffered in practice has caused Chark to miss an extended time. However, even when he was healthy it wasn’t like he was setting the world on fire. Chark didn’t catch any of his three targets in the preseason and had just one carry for three yards.
The veteran receiver is now going in the last round of drafts. Fantasy managers looking for a boom-or-bust merchant in an ambiguous passing attack are more than welcome to take a shot on Chark, but to expect him to be a consistent staple in the lineup is probably a tall ask.
Quarterback
Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers
ADP: 199.5 (+6.1), QB28
Bryce Young is coming off one of the worst rookie years for a quarterback in a very long time. Young completed just 59.8% of his passes for 2,877 yards and 11 touchdowns with 10 interceptions in his first year. It is easy to blame a young player for their performance, but Young was truly in a no-win situation.
The 2023 Panthers lacked passing weapons and a competent offensive line. The team also rotated between play callers throughout the season while trying to force Young to perform within the scheme instead of catering a scheme to his skillset.
Carolina spent the offseason bolstering the offensive line and added Diontae Johnson and Xavier Legette to the passing attack. They also hired Dave Canales as head coach after he had two successful reclamation projects in the last two seasons (Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield). However, we hadn’t seen any of these pieces in the preseason, which kept excitement for Young stifled.
In the last week of the preseason, we got to see Bryce Young work within the offense. And the results were very good. Young completed six of eight passes for 70 yards and a touchdown in his lone preseason game. More importantly, the offensive line provided him time to throw and he made the most of it.
There are plenty of ways for this to go sideways, but at the very least we saw Young look like a player who belongs on an NFL field before the start of the season. That makes him an interesting late-round pick as a QB2 or QB3 in draft formats.
Running Back
Zack Moss, Cincinnati Bengals
ADP: 107.3 (+8.9), RB32
We haven’t gotten a chance to see Zack Moss perform in the preseason with the Bengals. That leaves us with a big question mark heading into 2024 about how the veteran will look in his new surroundings sharing the backfield with Chase Brown.
Moss was great in 2023 while filling in for Jonathan Taylor with the Colts. The veteran set career highs as a rusher, posting 183 carries for 794 yards and five touchdowns. He also posted career bests in the receiving game, catching 27 of 37 targets for 192 yards and a touchdown. Moss was signed by the Bengals after the team traded incumbent starter Joe Mixon away during the offseason.
Chase Brown is the more exciting player in this backfield, but he struggled to earn a consistent role during his rookie season. Brown can be a high-volume running back capable of explosive runs, but his vision and lack of consistency in pass protection have forced him into a part-time role.
At worst, this feels like a backfield destined for a 50-50 split. That means that even with limited time on the field this preseason, Moss (and Brown) are both interesting values at the running back position. Neither can be trusted to provide RB1 upside given the workload split, but could provide huge value if their playing time increases.
Wide Receiver
Dyami Brown, Washington Commanders
ADP: 203.9 (-12.1), WR87
Dyami Brown was already getting consistent reps with the first team throughout the preseason, but the recent trade of Jahan Dotson all but assures that he will be on the field consistently. His ADP has climbed rapidly (specifically in the last week) as he’s moved up a full round since preseason has kicked off.
Brown has produced minimally during his NFL career, posting just 29 receptions on 62 targets for 476 yards and three touchdowns in his three-year career. Still, this is a 2021 third-round pick who was highly productive during his time at North Carolina in college.
On one hand, we don’t know how well the Kliff Kingsbury offense will support multiple receiving weapons, especially with a rookie quarterback under center. There is also an outside chance that Washington can finally lock down the Brandon Aiyuk trade that has been discussed all offseason.
Still, Brown is a receiving option who will be on the field available in the final rounds of fantasy drafts. That isn’t necessarily a guarantee for success, but he can easily be dropped if he doesn’t produce.
Tight End
Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears
ADP: 149.6 (+7.3), TE16
It is hard to see Cole Kmet producing at the same level he did in 2023. The tight end caught 73 of 90 targets for 719 yards and six touchdowns, trailing only DJ Moore in all of Chicago’s receiving statistics. It certainly isn’t hard to carve out a significant role in the offense when your primary competition for targets is Darnell Mooney, Roschon Johnson and Tyler Scott.
The Bears quarterback position should be upgraded, but so too is the wide receiver group. Chicago invested heavily into the receiving corps this offseason, trading a draft pick for Keenan Allen and drafting Rome Odunze in the first round of the NFL draft. Allen (108 receptions for 1,243 yards and seven touchdowns) joins Moore (96 receptions for 1,364 yards and eight touchdowns) as two legitimate target earners. Odunze (92 receptions for 1,640 yards and 13 touchdowns) isn’t a slouch at earning targets either.
Rookie quarterbacks typically struggle to elevate multiple receivers to top-tier production. We believe Caleb Williams to be more than your typical rookie, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that he can elevate three receivers and a tight end. Kmet seems like the most likely to fail, especially with Gerald Everett seeing plenty of run with the first-team offense in the preseason.
