FTN Fantasy Stat of the Day: Fourth-Quarter Running Backs

Our FTN Fantasy tools and stats provide so much detail and insight on players. The release of our FTN StatsHub provides subscribers with the most powerful NFL insights available. When making preseason draft decisions or facing in-season start/sit dilemmas, having access to our robust database is a huge advantage over your competition. Each week will provide a deep dive into one of our core stats here at FTN Fantasy and highlights the strengths or weaknesses of certain players. 

Fourth-Quarter Running Backs

Teams declare their preferences by actions, not words. Coaches can always lie (sometimes out of necessity), but when the game starts, each team’s decisions reveal their true beliefs. Head coaches are not going to scheme touches for a player they don’t trust. The fourth quarter is the most important time of the game, where wins or losses are secured. For today’s FTN Stat of the Day, I analyzed running back usage during the fourth quarter of games last season. 

We first examine fourth-quarter running back carries. We are able to use StatsHub to identify which running backs saw the most ground usage during the final stanza. 

Some thoughts on the players listed above:

• Rashaad White: Averaged just 3.6 YPC, producing on sheer volume. If fourth-round running back Bucky Irving steals some of that work, White is never going to hit with RB14 ADP.
• Tyler Allgeier: The Atlanta coach staff continues to emphasize how Allgeier will have a big role in this offense. He has the second-most 4Q RB carries on just a 35.2% snap share. The Falcons were trailing in 13 of 18 games, which means Allgeier still saw opportunities even with a dynamic three-down RB in Bijan Robinson on the roster. Will a new coaching staff change or maintain that usage? 
• Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens led entering the fourth quarter in the majority of games, and they relied on Gus Edwards to grind that victory out, with the third-most 4Q rushing opportunities of any RB. Will those opportunities slide to Derrick Henry, or will John Harbaugh want to keep Henry fresh for the playoffs and share those touches with Justice Hill (as he’s indicated?).
• Cincinnati Bengals: Joe Mixon saw the second-highest 4Q snap share of any running back last season. Do those touches go to Zack Moss, Chase Brown or both? 
• Saquon Barkley: Produced an NFL-best 5.4 YPC in the fourth quarter last season. Imagine what he can do with a much better offensive line and more explosive offense in Philadelphia? 

Now, let’s examine the fourth-quarter passing game production for running backs.

Some thoughts on the players listed above:

• Breece Hall: Greatly benefited from negative gamescript, particularly in the fourth quarter of games. If the Jets are more competitive (as we project), Hall’s position-leading 33 targets and 26 receptions in the fourth quarter will likely decrease. However, his rushing usage will likely increase, enabling his fantasy production to remain among the top running backs. 
• Chuba Hubbard: The Panthers certainly benefited from negative gamescript, but Hubbard was clearly the best pass-game option among the Carolina running backs. His catch rate (91.3%) is one of the highest on this list, and he should maintain that usage under the new coaching staff until rookie Jonathon Brooks recovers fully from his torn ACL. The presence of Miles Sanders right behind Hubbard is not a concern given the discrepancy in the snap share. 
• Tyjae Spears: One of the most vulnerable players on this list, as the Titans added dynamic pass-catching running back Tony Pollard from Dallas. Spears is a talented receiver back, who saw incredible fourth-quarter usage alongside Derrick Henry last season. But the presence of Pollard makes Spears’ opportunity share very tenuous, especially in the fourth quarter. 
• Samaje Perine: Still a cut candidate in Denver, Perine’s fourth quarter production would almost certainly go to Jaleel McLaughlin, who has been getting rave reviews from the coaching staff throughout the offseason.