Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
It’s a very weird season around Major League Baseball. The White Sox are on pace to reach their 100th loss before September, which shouldn’t be possible. Meanwhile, no one is pacing for 100 wins. No one is pacing for even 96, with six teams currently sitting within one game of the best record in baseball. Every team in the AL East is on at least a one-game losing streak, while every team in the NL West won their most recent game. Only the Royals and Brewers have a winning streak of more than three in a row, and no one has lost more than three in a row.
In other words, set aside those execrable Southsiders in Chicago, and there’s more parity in baseball than there’s been in a generation of the game. That arguably makes betting more complicated. Below are my favorite bets of the day. The odds change pretty quickly in baseball, so take advantage of our Prop Shop for the best possible odds and check out our Pick Tracker for the key picks from around FTN.
MLB Best Bets for Tuesday
Minnesota Twins Alt Line Over 4.5 Runs
(+125, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Martin Perez has actually been very good since joining the Padres, with a 1.96 ERA in 18.1 innings over three starts. He’s also done that against the Pirates, Rockies and Marlins, the three worst MLB offenses (because we have to admit the White Sox no longer qualify as an MLB offense). Tuesday, he gets one of the polar opposite offenses in a Minnesota team that has a 112 wRC+ on the season and only has one left-handed hitter in its expected lineup in No. 8 hitter Max Kepler — the rest of the projected lineup has six righties and two switch-hitters. For his career, Perez has allowed an .802 OPS to right-handed hitters compared to a .648 to lefties, and it’s even worse across this year — .850 to righties, .729 to lefties. For the season, he’s at a 4.62 ERA (4.84 FIP) with a 1.49 WHIP, but if you take out April, that jumps to a 5.54 ERA (5.65 FIP) with a 1.56 WHIP. The Twins over 4.5 feels strong Tuesday, and I wouldn’t fault anyone who at least took a look at the over 5.5 or over 6.5 alt lines either.
Shane Baz Over 4.5 Hits Allowed
(-128, Caesars)
Shane Baz has pitched seven games this year and given up at least 6 hits in five of them, including all three of his starts in August. He hasn’t pitched that poorly in the aggregate, with a 4.21 ERA and 4.07 FIP, but there have been plenty of baserunners. Oakland features a surprisingly average offense, with a 100 wRC+ on the season that jumps to 108 (12th best) over the last 30 days. Meanwhile, the Rays bullpen is pretty run through right now, with Jason Adam shipped to San Diego and Pete Fairbanks just lost to the IL. They’re going to want innings out of Baz Tuesday, and he’s gone 6-plus three times in seven outings. Even if he pitches well, Baz could go 6 innings and give up 5 hits and still reach our over here.
