Drops & Disasters: Fantasy Baseball Roster Moves (8/11)

Prior articles have addressed many of the factors that fantasy managers should consider when evaluating whether to hold or drop specific players. This article focuses briefly on one of those factors – the player’s upcoming schedule. Based on recent drops observed in some leagues, it appears that many managers do not evaluate upcoming schedules when making drop decisions. In some situations, that can lead to regrettable and/or premature drops.

Before finalizing players to drop, fantasy managers should – as part of their FAAB process – review the upcoming schedules of players potentially on the chopping block. At a minimum, doing so may help to prioritize drops – expediting the departure of certain players while delaying the release of others. For instance, assume that a manager is frustrated with and considering dropping Jordan Montgomery (an understandable sentiment given Montgomery’s very disappointing 2024 season). Reviewing the Diamondbacks’ upcoming schedule prior to finalizing that decision, however, reveals that Montgomery is in line for a home start against Colorado this coming week (assuming he remains in the Snakes’ rotation), and then faces Miami on the road the following week. For a pitcher, facing the “road Rockies” and the depleted Marlins in their cavernous home park is about as good as it gets in terms of back-to-back matchups.

Without question, managers still could decide to drop Montgomery, due to a lack of faith in his future performance even against weak competition and/or the absence of better drops to effectuate the manager’s desired acquisitions. That noted, Montgomery’s favorable schedule for the next two weeks does provide a compelling reason to forgo dropping him tonight – a reason that managers would only be aware of if checking the upcoming schedules of their potential drops. On the opposite side of the spectrum, a manager leaning toward holding James Paxton for now might reconsider if checking his upcoming schedule and seeing road starts against the Orioles and the Astros as his upcoming matchups. 

In evaluating schedules for pitchers, these are the 10 lowest-scoring teams in MLB this season heading into games on August 10: Tigers (485), Rangers (485), Braves (484), Blue Jays (481), Athletics (472), Mariners (461), Rays (453), Marlins (425) and White Sox (366). The White Sox also have the fewest runs scored since July 1, which may be a better starting point to identify lineups to target (especially when certain lineups became even weaker following the trade deadline). Indeed, the White Sox are so bad that it arguably is tough to justify dropping a starting pitcher who is scheduled to face them in the next week or two. For instance, as frustrating as Nestor Cortes has been to roster at times this season, is tonight really the time to drop him with a matchup against the White Sox scheduled for this coming week? Shifting gears, managers should note the presence of the Rangers and the Braves among the 10 lowest-scoring MLB teams this season – these are lineups that need not be avoided, especially as of late.

Reviewing upcoming schedules also can be helpful, and is advised, when evaluating potential hitter drops. For instance, while the Reds’ Jake Fraley may be a marginal player for fantasy, especially in 12-team formats, fantasy managers should think twice about dropping him tonight. Cincinnati is home for six games this week – facing St. Louis and Kansas City – and Fraley, who bats left-handed, should start all six games (with health) against right-handed pitchers.  I would not drop Fraley given his favorable schedule for this coming week.

Importantly, this article does not suggest that upcoming schedules should dictate all or even most hold/drop decisions. There obviously are many other factors equally if not more important to consider including, but not limited to, a player’s performance and underlying skills, and the rest of the fantasy team’s roster and categorical needs. Rather, upcoming schedules simply are one of many factors to consider in determining which players to drop (and when to drop them). To the extent subscribers do not currently consider upcoming schedules as part of their weekly FAAB process, they are encouraged to do so starting tonight.

Some of the players who should at least be considered as potential drops this week are set forth below in the following two tables – the first includes hitters and the second includes pitchers. In addition to the player’s name, team and position, the tables include the player’s ownership percentage in the premier 15- and 12-team contests: the NFBC’s Main Event and Online Championship, respectively. Finally, the tables list my rankings as to how strongly – or not – I feel each particular player should be dropped in those 15-team and 12-team formats, respectively. The key to these rankings, from 0-4, is as follows:

• 0 = Do not drop
• 1 = Team context dependent; probably should not be dropped on most teams
• 2 = Team context dependent; compelling arguments to drop and not drop
• 3 = Team context dependent; probably should be dropped on most teams
• 4 = Drop

Potential Hitter Drops

Ke’Bryan Hayes has been a major disappointment this season. He has double-digit stolen bases but provides no power from a corner infield position, limited runs and RBI and is not hitting for average this season. Hayes struggled with launch angle early in his career but improved considerably in that department in 2023. This season, however, Hayes’ launch angle has cratered again and he is hitting everything into the ground. Making matters worse, Hayes’ average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate all are career lows. Hayes’ lack of production has not gone unnoticed – he recently has been hitting in the bottom third of the Pirates lineup. Unless teams are prioritizing speed, I think upgrades to Hayes can be found in many 12-team leagues. It will be tougher to replace Hayes in 15-team formats, but managers in need of home runs and RBI probably can move on safely without fear of missing a big power surge from Hayes.

Although I addressed Eloy Jiménez in last week’s article, and then subsequently posted an update to that article in the Discord, I want to cover him again in light of his recent usage. At first, it appeared that Jiménez, who was having a disappointing season, would be relegated to a short-side platoon role with, perhaps, occasional starts against right-handed pitchers. Instead, Jiménez is receiving greater playing time – for now – and seems to be responding well to the change in scenery. If Jiménez is playing regularly, even if not every day, he should be considered a hold in most contexts. While Camden Yards does right-handed hitters like Jiménez no favors, the Orioles lineup is so stacked that solid counting stats (at a minimum) are almost unavoidable.

Paul DeJong quietly was having a solid, bounce-back season for the White Sox. Although DeJong hit only .228 for Chicago, he had 18 home runs and 80 R+RBI in 363 plate appearances. The Royals acquired DeJong at the trade deadline, and while the transaction sent the infielder from the team with the worst record in baseball to a playoff contender, it also impacted DeJong’s playing time. Thus far, DeJong has started roughly half of his games for the Royals and, therefore, no longer may be fantasy viable in most contexts. In addition to losing playing time, DeJong also suffered a downgrade in home parks, at least with respect to home runs. Unless managers are willing to sacrifice performance in most hitting categories in exchange for a power bat eligible at shortstop (and, more recently, third base), DeJong should be dropped.

Finally, some quick hits:

• Luis Rengifo underwent wrist surgery on Tuesday and will miss the remainder of the season. Rengifo should be dropped in all formats.

• Shortly after being traded to the Phillies and assuming regular playing time, Austin Hays went on the IL this week with a left hamstring strain. It is not clear how long Hays will be out, but at this point in the season, managers should refrain from stashing marginal players like Hays. Rather, moving forward, injury stashes should be reserved for difference-makers.

• The Diamondbacks’ Gabriel Moreno went on the IL this week with a left abductor strain. While the team has not provided a likely return date, it will be more than a minimum IL stay. Arizona’s manager Tory Lovullo said this week that: “It’s going to be more than 10 days down. We’re talking for several weeks. We’re trying to find out how much time that will be.” In response to a follow-up inquiry, Lovullo said: “I want to remain optimistic. He’ll return before the season is over, that’s my gut feeling.” Given the likely duration of Moreno’s injury, fantasy managers should consider dropping him in 12- and 15-team leagues.

• Coming off 19 home runs and a .270 average season in 2023, Mitch Garver was a popular catcher during draft season, especially when he was acquired by the Mariners and slotted for a DH role. Coming into yesterday’s game, Garver had 12 home runs but was hitting an atrocious .169 in 362 plate appearances. No player with at least 240 plate appearances has a lower batting average than Garver. If managers start him every week, they need to be aware of the harm he is causing to their average. Because the bar for fantasy relevance is lower at catcher than any other position, Garver is not necessarily a drop in 15-team leagues notwithstanding his average, but fantasy managers should be cognizant of the harm he is causing them in the average category. In 12-team leagues, Garver should be dropped by all managers not chasing home runs.

• Heading into yesterday’s games, the Padres’ Luis Arráez, who is eligible at first base and second base, was hitting .302 with a league best 5.1% K rate (the next-closest hitter was Steven Kwan with an 8.6% K%). Arráez should be rostered in all formats. He is mentioned here, however, because some teams rostering Arráez probably should consider dropping him. At this late stage in the season, when managers should be focusing on standings, including individual categorical standings, Arráez is a boon to teams needing average, but a bane to teams needing power or speed. While Arráez’s average is strong, he entered yesterday’s game with only 3 HR and 4 SB, which are terrible outputs in those categories for an everyday player. In fact, Arráez only had 88 R+RBI in 109 games, despite hitting primarily in the leadoff position.

Potential Pitcher Drops

In preparation for this weekly article, I research the percentages that potential drops are rostered in the Main Event and the Online Championship. Every now and then, I am truly surprised at how widely certain players are rostered. This past week, I discovered that two pitchers are rostered far more widely than I ever could have imagined. The first such pitcher is MacKenzie Gore, rostered in 95% and 87% of Main Event and Online Championship leagues, respectively. Following Tuesday’s start, Gore had 7 wins and 128 strikeouts in 116 innings. Significantly, however, Gore also has a 4.66 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. More troubling, Gore’s performance is getting worse as the season goes on, not better.

While surface stats are not the be all and end all, and Gore has gotten unlucky at times (.364 BABIP this season), his WHIP has been 1.4 or above every season of his three-year career. The Nationals are not a strong team, and wins may be tough to come by down the stretch. Gore’s strikeouts can be helpful to the right team, but fantasy managers need to be cognizant of the extreme damage that Gore is inflicting on their ratios. Based on Gore’s ratios, I would expect him to be rostered on a much lower percentage of teams, especially in the Online Championship. With the exception of teams that are prioritizing strikeouts above other pitching categories and/or are punting ratios, Gore is a drop in all formats, especially considering he is slated to start at the Phillies and at the Braves over the next two weeks.

Similarly, Brayan Bello is rostered in 100% and 97% of Main Event and Online Championship leagues and, candidly, I was shocked by that. To be fair to Bello, he is performing well in two pitching categories. He has 10 wins, which is very helpful for fantasy, and has 109 strikeouts in 111.2 innings; while that is slightly less than a strikeout per inning, our game focuses on total strikeouts and 109 is a solid if unspectacular total for this point in the season. The problem with Bello, however, is that he is killing fantasy managers’ ratios. Through 21 games started, Bello has an awful 5.16 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. Like Gore, following a solid start to the season, Bello’s statistics have worsened over time.

While Bello, like Gore, has been hurt by a high (.325) BABIP, he also allows a lot of home runs (18 thus far). Bello has some tough matchups coming up – he’s expected to face the Rangers at home and the Orioles on the road this week, and then gets the Diamondbacks at home next week. Teams prioritizing wins and possibly strikeouts over ratios can hold Bello and hope for the best. If, however, fantasy managers are prioritizing ratios, Bello can be upgraded in 15-team formats and quite easily in 12-team formats. (I would hold Bello over Gore for an improved chance at wins, but it is fairly close.)

Shortly before his scheduled start on Tuesday, the Orioles’ Grayson Rodriguez was scratched with discomfort in his upper and mid back. Prior to his injury, Rodriguez was having a strong season (13 W, 130 K, 3.86 ERA, 1.24 WHIP in 116.2 IP). While fantasy managers rostering Rodriguez probably hoped for better ratios, Rodriguez entered the week tied for the most wins in MLB. Prior to sending Rodriguez back to Baltimore for further evaluation and imaging, the Orioles placed him on the 15-day IL. Pundits quickly noted that Rodriguez had suffered a similar injury in 2022, when pitching in Double-A, and that injury – classified as right lat discomfort – cost Rodriguez three months of the season, delaying his MLB debut until 2023. The Orioles indicated recently that Rodriguez suffered a “mild” lat strain, which seems more serious than “discomfort,” although there are comments coming out of Baltimore expressing optimism that Rodriguez will return this season. I would not assume Rodriguez’s recovery period in 2024 will be the same as in 2022 – players can suffer similar sounding injuries that differ in severity and recovery periods. Rodriguez is a risky stash in that it is uncertain how much time he will miss, and it also is uncertain whether he will be able to perform at peak level upon his return. While the Orioles are battling the Yankees for the AL East title, Baltimore’s primary focus will be on getting Rodriguez right for the playoffs. If managers have the roster flexibility, I think he’s a hold at this point, at least based on the information available publicly (which could change). On the other hand, it would not be unreasonable for managers facing a roster crunch to consider dropping Rodriguez now in favor of pitchers likely to be back sooner.

Finally, some quick hits:

• The Twins’ Joe Ryan left his start early this week and subsequently was placed on the IL with a Grade 2 teres major (shoulder) strain. He is now out indefinitely. Manager Rocco Baldelli indicated that Ryan would be sidelined for “weeks to months” but did not rule out a return at some point this season. Ryan is a very good starting pitcher, but fantasy managers rostering him are looking at an extended absence (if not a season-ending injury). At this point in the season, that makes Ryan a must drop in all formats.

• Following one too many lousy performances, the Giants not only removed Camilo Doval from the closer role, but from the team itself, demoting him to the minors. While it is possible that Doval could “get things right” and be recalled, he now is a drop in all formats. For Doval to be worth holding at this point, he would need to: (1) be recalled quickly; (2) be reinserted into the closer’s role quickly; and (3) pitch much more effectively and retain the job. Given Doval’s struggles this season (4.70 ERA, 1.61 WHIP), the odds that Doval will help managers as a successful closer sometime this season appear astronomical.

• Fantasy managers rostering James McArthur had good reason to write him off, as the team started using Hunter Harvey as its closer. The switch to Harvey was not surprising, as McArthur has struggled since early in the season (5.12 ERA, 1.40 WHIP heading into yesterday’s game). On Saturday, however, Harvey was placed on the IL. Given McArthur’s struggles, Lucas Erceg may be handed the next shot at closing out games for the Royals. That noted, with Harvey’s injury, managers who can stomach McArthur’s ratio-harming skills may want to see how the team’s closer situation plays out before dropping him.

Potential Disaster Starts

Set forth in the table below are starting pitchers I believe have real disaster potential for the coming week. In order to make this section of the column as actionable as possible, pitchers who are sparsely rostered have been excluded. Instead, I am challenging myself by focusing solely on pitchers who are at least 90% rostered in the Main Event or at least 60% rostered in the Online Championship. The pitchers are ranked from 1 to 10 for disaster potential in the coming week, with the highest numbers reflecting pitchers I am highly unlikely to start and who strike me as the biggest potential disasters. 

This was a very strong week for me in terms of identifying potential disaster starts. In fact, none of my selections turned in particularly strong starts, and it is pleasing to see the season-long ratios for my selections continue to climb. In the interests of accountability, set forth below are the results of my “disaster” picks thus far. Week 20 reflects results through yesterday; any additional stats accumulated today will be reflected in next week’s article.