NFL Splits Tool: Steel City Turnover

With training camp in full swing, I’ll be using our FTN Fantasy Splits Tool to look at some of the key situations to monitor throughout the offseason. The Splits Tool is a great way to dissect how certain environments and situations impact different players or teams based on spreads, locations, coaches, current or former teammates, etc. It’s a must-have for serious fantasy football managers and sports betters, especially when it comes to making difficult start/sit decisions or trying to gain an edge against the books.

Mike Tomlin Magic

Death, taxes and Mike Tomlin finishing with a non-losing season. Things were looking bleak in Pittsburgh after losing Kenny Pickett to a knee injury, dropping three consecutive games with Mitchell Trubisky under center. After another change at quarterback, this time with Mason Rudolph, the Steelers won each of their last three games, clinching a playoff berth and adding to Tomlin’s Hall of Fame resume, now 17 straight seasons with a record no worse than .500. The team had no business making the postseason, as evident by their 31-17 blowout loss to Buffalo in the Wild Card Round, leading to a lot of turnover this offseason.

The offense specifically has seen a lot of changes, trading away their starting quarterback and top wide receiver in Kenny Pickett and Diontae Johnson and hiring former Falcons head coach Arthur Smith as the new playcaller. Replacing Pickett will be Smith’s first task in the Steel City, with the team yet to announce a Week 1 starter. The quarterback battle between Russell Wilson and Justin Fields has started to heat up in recent weeks and may come down to the wire. Regardless of who is under center, it should be a step up from Pickett, a relatively low bar to clear. The departure of Johnson also leaves a lot of vacated opportunities, with George Pickens and Pat Freiermuth looking to be the main beneficiaries. Behind those two there isn’t much to get excited about, barring a potential trade for Brandon Aiyuk. In this article, I’ll be breaking down what an uptick in volume could mean for the Steelers’ primary pass catchers.

George Pickens, WR

Talent had never been the issue for George Pickens, who showed flashes as a rookie and took a step forward last season. He was the Steelers leading receiver in 2023, catching 63 passes on 106 targets for 1,140 yards and 5 touchdowns, leading the NFL with 18.1 yards per reception. Since entering the league, Pickens has been one of the best downfield threats in the league, averaging 10.2 yards per target, fourth among all players to see 150-plus targets over the last two seasons. As great as Pickens was, he took his game to another level without Diontae Johnson, thriving as the clear No. 1 option in the offense. In four games without Johnson, Pickens saw 8.3 targets per game, averaging 4.3 receptions for nearly 90 yards (89.3) and finding the end zone twice.

His target share spiked to 28% up from 13% in the 13 games with Johnson. Entering 2024, Pickens could be in line for a monster season with what should be better play under center.

Pat Freiermuth, TE

Pat Freiermuth was abysmal last season, appearing in just 12 games as he dealt with numerous injuries. He set career lows across the board, catching 32 passes on 47 targets for 308 yards and two touchdowns. Without Diontae Johnson, Freiermuth’s production somehow got worse, averaging a little over two receptions (2.3) on three targets for 16.7 yards, managing to find the end zone in one out of three games.

2023 looks to be an outlier in Freiermuth’s still-young career, finishing as a top-10 tight end in each of his first two seasons. He’s due for a bounce-back in what looks to be an improved offense with little competition for targets outside of George Pickens. The Steelers have 143 vacated targets up for grabs entering next season, 10th most in the NFL.