Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
The 2024 MLB trade deadline was a whirlwind, but now the dust has settled. We didn’t necessarily have a “blockbuster” move, but there were several bigger names that changed teams and non-stop action with plenty of smaller moves. So, with the deadline gone, let’s dive into these moves to see whose value has shifted, what new opportunities have popped up and who you should be looking to buy low or sell high.
Keep in mind that I will not be breaking down every single trade that has happened over the last week, as some didn’t have any fantasy implications or changes in fantasy value for the players involved.
The Arizona Diamondbacks acquire AJ Puk from the Miami Marlins for Deyvison De Los Santos and Andrew Pintar
This move doesn’t alter the value of A.J. Puk, who is still a great target in leagues that value holds, but it does open up a clearer path to playing time for Deyvison De Los Santos. The Marlins have been rolling out Jonah Bride at third base fairly consistently, and De Los Santos could step right in and provide considerably more offense, especially in the power department. De Los Santos leads the minors with 29 home runs in 89 games this season and has a stellar 92.5 mph AVG EV, 44.1% hard-hit rate and 13.8% barrel rate. However, that also comes with a 66.8% contact rate. If you can stomach the lower AVG and OBP, De Los Santos could provide a nice power boost once he’s called up.
The New York Yankees get Jazz Chisholm Jr. from the Miami Marlins for Agustín Ramírez, Jared Serna and Abrahan Ramirez
The other notable trade for the Marlins had fantasy implications on both sides with a pair of winners coming out of this trade. As is the case with De Los Santos, Agustín Ramírez now has a much easier path to playing time in Miami. He’s played both catcher and first base this season in the minors, slashing .269/.358/.505 in 87 games with 17 doubles, 20 home runs and even 18 steals. Those stolen bases are unlikely to continue at that level, but Ramírez has similar power upside to De Los Santos long-term and is a better pure hitter. If they’re both up this season, I would target Ramírez over De Los Santos. The Marlins trading Josh Bell also helps Ramírez’s chances of coming up this season.
As for Jazz Chisholm, this is a phenomenal move for his value, both short-term and long-term. Chisholm has actually stayed healthy this season and is still on around a 20/30 pace even though his quality of contact metrics have dipped a tad. Getting Chisholm’s left-handed bat into Yankee Stadium is a win by itself, but he’ll also have a much better lineup around him than he did in Miami. Just stay healthy Jazz!
The Baltimore Orioles acquire Trevor Rogers from the Miami Marlins for Connor Norby and Kyle Stowers
Alright, this one surprised me. Many of us thought that one of Baltimore’s top prospects would get traded with Connor Norby being in the mix, but to Miami for Trevor Rogers? That 2021 season from Rogers was incredible and had him flying up rankings and draft boards that following spring, but Rogers hasn’t been nearly the same caliber pitcher since then, struggling with both performance and durability issues. Rogers has a 4.53 ERA and 1.53 WHIP this season and has really struggled to miss bats with a 21.2% whiff rate and 18% strikeout rate. Maybe Baltimore can help him right the ship, but the metrics aren’t good right now.
Meanwhile, Miami got a decent power bat in Stowers and an intriguing player with Norby. After a 29/16 season in 2022 and 21/10 season in 2023 with 40 doubles, Norby currently has 21 doubles, 16 home runs and 13 steals in 80 minor league games this season with a .297/.389/.519 slash line. He also has hit a pair of home runs with Baltimore but with a 0/12 BB/K ratio. The long-term upside for Norby is a .270/20/10 type, and he now has a clearer path to playing time in Miami.
The Chicago Cubs get Isaac Paredes from the Tampa Bay Rays for Christopher Morel, Hunter Bigge and Ty Johnson
There were trade rumors swirling around Isaac Paredes, but the Cubs being the winning suitor surprised me, especially with them giving up Christopher Morel.
For me, Paredes’ value is hurt by this move from Tropicana Field to Wrigley Field. While the dimensions are similar in left-center, the left-field foul pole is 40 feet further in Wrigley, and this is notable since basically all of Paredes’ home runs are pulled down the line. We need to take xHR with a grain of salt, but Paredes xHR this season at Tropicana is 19 and only 11 at Wrigley. The wind also tends to blow in at Wrigley in the summer. Paredes’ value hinges on his home runs, so a hit to that is a hit to his overall value. He was already a sell for me and even more so now.
On the other hand, Morel is an intriguing buy-low in both redraft and dynasty leagues. His .199/.302/.373 slash line might say otherwise, but Morel still has above-average quality of contact metrics and has actually improved in many areas under the hood this season. Morel has improved his strikeout rate from 31% to 24.5%, his walk rate from 8.4% to 11.2% and his contact rate from 63% to 67.8%. While he’ll never be more than a .230-.250 hitter, Morel is due for some positive regression soon and could be in store for a better final two months of the season. There’s still plenty of value here with Morel.
And no, I don’t believe Morel will block Junior Caminero, as Morel will likely play at DH. It should be Caminero time any day now.
Lastly, keep an eye on Hunter Bigge, who has the stuff to pitch in high-leverage situations. I’m not sure if it will be in 2024, but he could factor into the saves mix for Tampa Bay at some point down the road.
The San Diego Padres acquire Tanner Scott and Bryan Hoeing from the Miami Marlins for Robby Snelling, Graham Pauley, Adam Mazur and Jay Beshears
The immediate reaction to this is Tanner Scott’s value likely takes a hit. Maybe he’ll be in a timeshare with Robert Suárez, but it’s highly unlikely that he’ll be the unquestioned closer as he was with Miami. This could also take away some save opportunities from Suárez. Both are obviously still fantasy viable, but their values were higher in fantasy 24 hours ago.
In Miami, it’s probably going to be one of Andrew Nardi or Calvin Faucher getting the additional save opportunities. In all likelihood, it’s probably a combination, but my money is on Faucher leading the way. He’d be the one I’d target in FAAB.
The Marlins got a nice haul of prospects back and bought low on a few of them. Robby Snelling was considered by many to be a top-10 pitching prospect entering this season after posting a 1.82 ERA and reaching Double-A as a 19-year-old. However, that ERA has ballooned to over 6.00 this season, and Snelling has seen his walk and strikeout rates trend in the wrong direction as well. I’m liking this move for him, though, as Miami has done a great job at developing changeups, and hopefully that can help Snelling’s changeup progress and get him back on track. He’s a nice buy-low target in dynasty formats.
I’d be willing to say the same thing about Graham Pauley as well. Like Snelling, Pauley’s production has dropped off, but this is a player who broke camp with San Diego and has shown a good feel for hitting with 15-homer pop. I’m not ready to say 2023 was a fluke and would look to buy low here.
The Seattle Mariners acquire Randy Arozarena from the Tampa Bay Rays for Aidan Smith, Brody Hopkins and a player to be named later.
With their offense struggling, and Julio Rodríguez landing on the IL, Seattle desperately needed a bat and got a good one with Randy Arozarena. Yes, Arozarena’s overall .219/.325/.407 line doesn’t stand out, but he’s been much better of late, slashing .304/.399/.584 with 11 doubles, eight home runs and nine steals in his last 35 games. With that said, Seattle isn’t a great place for right-handed batters to hit. Overall, this is more of a net neutral for Arozarena. who remains a strong buy in all fantasy leagues right now.
It might seem like a light return on the surface, but both Aidan Smith and Brody Hopkins are intriguing. Smith is slashing .284/.402/.470 with 26 doubles, nine home runs and 28 steals in 77 Low-A games and brings plus speed and developing power. His stock has already been rising and should continue to do so over the next year or two. Hopkins isn’t as highly ranked, but he has the stuff and is projected to be a decent breakout arm moving forward.
Other Trade Deadline Notes
- The Baltimore Orioles trading Austin Hays to Baltimore frees up more potential playing time for Heston Kjerstad. With regular playing time, Kjerstad has top-25 outfielder upside for the remainder of the season thanks to his power potential. In limited time with Baltimore this season, Kjerstad has hit well with a .261/.370/.420 slash line and three home runs in 81 plate appearances. But the Orioles also acquired Eloy Jiménez right before the 6 p.m. deadline, so we’ll see how this all shakes out.
- The Boston Red Sox needed another right-handed bat and got one with Danny Jansen. While it’s been a rough season for Jansen, who is currently slashing .219/.310/.373, Jansen is still posting an 86.2% zone contact, 80.1% overall contact rate, 11.2% walk rate, 18.1% strikeout rate and close to league average quality of contact metrics. Given that Jansen should play regularly between catcher and DH, he’s firmly back in the picture for two-catcher formats.
- Former top pitching prospect Nate Pearson heads from Toronto to the Windy City in an unheralded trade. While his days as a starter are numbered, Pearson is someone to keep an eye on, as he still possesses late-inning stuff with a fastball that touches triple digits and a wipeout slider that currently has a 40.7% whiff rate.
- Jack Flaherty goes from the Tigers to the Dodgers, giving him a nice uptick in value simply due to the additional run support he’ll get from one of the best offenses in baseball. This will push one of River Ryan or Justin Wrobleski from the rotation, though. Thayron Liranzo (C/1B) and Trey Sweeney (SS) are the return players for Detroit. Liranzo has struggled this season but possesses solid raw power, while Sweeney has quietly been performing well in the upper minors and could see some time at shortstop later this season or in early-2025 for Detroit.
- With the Arizona Diamondbacks acquiring Josh Bell, that signals that Christian Walker’s oblique injury is at least somewhat serious. That’s a tough blow for one of the best and most reliable fantasy first basemen in the game.
- The Toronto Blue Jays sent reliever Yimi García to Seattle, where he’ll set up for Andrés Muñoz. This doesn’t change García’s value much, since Chad Green had been getting most of the save opportunities lately, but keep an eye on Jonatan Clase, who heads to Toronto in this deal. Clase has had inconsistencies with his contact and strikes out a bit too often, but he’s a premium athlete who could impact the stolen base column.
- The Houston Astros acquired Yusei Kikuchi on Monday in exchange for Jake Bloss, Will Wagner and Joey Loperfido. The one I’m most intrigued about here is Loperfido, who wasn’t receiving regular playing time in Houston but could in Toronto in their outfield. Given his power/speed blend, he’s an intriguing upside flier outside of shallower leagues.
- In their first move for a reliever, the Padres grabbed Jason Adam from the Tampa Bay Rays while sending Dylan Lesko, Homer Bush Jr. and a player to be named later. Lesko is the interesting name here, as he was considered one of the best pitching prospects in the 2022 MLB Draft and still has plenty of arm talent, but he’s struggled to find his command and control since returning from Tommy John Surgery. If the Rays can help him in those areas, Lesko’s stock will soar.
