Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
With plenty of shakeup in the college football landscape heading into 2024, it’s hard to keep everything in order. In the coming weeks, I will brief you on every team, conference by conference.
One important factor in 2024? The new College Football Playoff format.
We have a new 12-team playoff format that gives more teams an opportunity to play for the College Football Championship. The five highest-ranked conference champions earn automatic bids, with the next seven highest-ranked teams completing the group.
The winner of the Conference USA will get a shot at the coveted fifth conference championship slot but will have to battle between the winners of the Sun Belt, MAC, American Athletic Conference and Mountain West.
Let’s dive into the CUSA and see if anyone has a real shot at dethroning Liberty.
(All odds are per FanDuel Sportsbook)
2024 Conference USA Preview
Florida International
2023 record: 4-8 (1-7 conference record)
2024 odds: CUSA Winner: +10000; Win Total: o4.5 +138
Coach: Mike MacIntyre (8-16)
Heading into 2024, the Panthers aim to achieve their first six-win season since 2019, but they will face significant challenges once again. Coming off a 104-tackle season, Reggie Patterson will lead the defense and aim to help improve upon last season’s 30 points allowed per game. Quarterback Keyone Jenkins and top rusher Shomari Lawrence provide continuity, while the addition of speedy Nazeviah Burris will inject energy into the offense. Reaching six wins would mark progress in the right direction for Florida International.
Jacksonville State
2023 record: 9-4 (6-2)
2024 odds: CUSA Winner: +650; Win Total: o7.5 -134
Coach: Rich Rodriguez (9-4)
Jacksonville State enters the 2024 season as one of the division favorites following an impressive 2023 campaign. This year will be a challenge due to the departures of Zion Webb and Malik Jackson. The quarterback battle features transfer Zion Turner (UConn), who threw for over 1,400 yards and eight touchdowns last year, against incumbent Logan Smothers, who was benched in favor of Webb last season. Anwar Lewis will lead the rushing attack, supported closely by two talented freshmen. The team saw turnover with the loss of their top two tacklers from 2023, but returning stars Fred Perry at safety and Laletia Hale at middle linebacker are expected to anchor the defense. I project it will be a struggle to hit the seven-win mark this season due to the changes.
Kennesaw State
2023 record: 3-6 (nonconference)
2024 odds: CUSA Winner: N/A; Win Total: o2.5 -110
Coach: Brian Bohannon (71-30)
Kennesaw State enters its inaugural season in the conference with tempered expectations. Quarterback Davis Bryson, despite limited action, will lead the team and add an element of unpredictability. Michael Benefield emerged as a standout and finished the year with four consecutive 100-yard rushing games. Defensively, Donelius Johnson and Jalen Barnum will anchor the middle, while Jayven Williams and JeRico Washington will be tasked to take the lead in the secondary. Exceeding two wins is within reach, but significant improvement beyond that may be challenging.
Liberty
2023 record: 13-1 (8-0)
2024 odds: CUSA Winner: -195; Win Total: o10.5 -144
Coach: Jamey Chadwell (13-1)
Liberty enters the upcoming season as the clear favorite to dominate the conference and has its eyes set on the CFB Playoff. They are led by star dual-threat quarterback Kaidon Salter, who amassed over 2,800 passing yards and 32 touchdowns while rushing for 1,089 yards with 12 additional scores in 2023. Quinton Cooley will aim to replicate his impressive 2023 campaign, where he racked up 1,401 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns. With the departure of CJ Daniels to LSU, wide receiver Treon Sibley will take on an expanded role. While facing some defensive turnover, there are uncertainties about replicating last season’s strong performance. Achieving the 13-win mark again seems unlikely, but Liberty seems like a lock to earn that fifth automatic spot in the playoff.
Louisiana Tech
2023 record: 3-9 (2-6)
2024 odds: CUSA Winner: +2500; Win Total: o4.5 -150
Coach: Sonny Cumbie (6-18)
Louisiana Tech faces significant changes this offseason as they strive for improvement. The departure of quarterback Hank Bachmeier sets the stage for a quarterback battle between Jack Turner and Ty Keyes, a transfer from Southern Mississippi. They bolstered their backfield with the addition of transfer Donerio Davenport, a powerful runner at 6-foot-1, 210 pounds who will look to build on his 560 yards and four touchdowns from scrimmage last season in an expanded role. The loss of both top receiving leaders adds to the uncertainty surrounding the offense. Defensively, there is a quest for improvement after allowing 33.4 points per game last year. Given these challenges, replicating or surpassing last season’s 3-9 record appears daunting for Louisiana Tech.
Middle Tennessee
2023 record: 4-8 (3-5)
2024 odds: CUSA Winner: +2500; Win Total: o4.5 -122
Coach: Derek Mason (new)
Middle Tennessee had a down year last season but now has bowl game aspirations under new head coach Derek Mason. Mason is known for his ability to elevate programs and joins a roster with substantial continuity. Quarterback Nicholas Vattiato broke out with over 3,000 passing yards and 23 touchdowns last year and is joined by both leading rushers. Wide receiver Omari Kelly (Auburn) arrives via the transfer portal and will bring promise to the passing attack. Defensive changes leave some question marks, as several new faces and players are stepping into expanded roles. This may help a MTSU unit that allowed 28.1 points per game last season. A return to Bowl contention seems assured while surpassing last year’s four-win total in the process.
New Mexico State
2023 record: 10-5 (7-1)
2024 odds: CUSA Winner: +8000; Win Total: o4.5 +108
Coach: Tony Sanchez (new)
After a New Mexico Bowl appearance last year, the Aggies face significant uncertainty and should experience a dropoff. Tony Sanchez steps into the head coaching role and will provide some continuity amidst sweeping changes. The quarterback situation is a major question mark with no returning players. Former QB1 star Deuce Hogan transferred in from Kentucky and is a former 3-star recruit ranked 15th among pro-style quarterbacks in 2020. The departure of most top receivers leaves opportunities for Kordell David or Donovan Faupel to emerge. Returning veterans include left tackle Shiyazh Pete and running back Monte Watkins, who had a strong 2023 season. Achieving the four-win mark appears challenging for this roster, but we have seen crazier things happen.
Sam Houston
2023 record: 3-9 (2-6)
2024 odds: CUSA Winner: +2000; Win Total: o4.5 -134
Coach: K.C. Keeler (3-9)
Last year proved disappointing for Sam Houston, as it fell short of expectations with a 3-9 record. Optimism still surrounds the team heading into the upcoming season but is tempered by lingering doubts. The addition of Jase Bauer via the transfer portal bolsters the quarterback position. Bauer totaled 1,881 passing yards, 12 touchdowns and added 365 yards with 10 rushing scores at Central Michigan last season. They also acquired Jay Ducker, a former 1,000-yard rusher, who will pair with John Gentry to form a potent rushing attack. Defensive reinforcements include graduate transfers Jaylon Jimmerson and Ny’Quee Hawkins, and both will boost the secondary. Improvement is anticipated in 2024, though reaching a bowl game remains uncertain.
UTEP
2023 record: 3-9 (2-6)
2024 odds: CUSA Winner: +5500; Win Total: o4.5 +104
Coach: Scotty Walden (new)
UTEP aims for a fresh start after parting ways with Dana Dimel following another disappointing season in 2023. Scotty Walden steps in as head coach and is expected to energize the offense. Cade McConnell begins the season as the starting quarterback and will look to stabilize the position after last year’s issues. The Miners bolstered their passing game with transfers Trey Goodman and Jaden Smith, both coming off career-best seasons. Jevon Jackson, fresh from a 1,300+ rushing season at Austin Peay, leads the ground attack. Defensive improvements were prioritized this offseason after allowing 28.5 points per game last season. With these changes, it would not be a surprise if they posted a six-win season and their first bowl game appearance since 2021.
Western Kentucky
2023 record: 8-5 (5-3)
2024 odds: CUSA Winner: +500; Win Total: o7.5 -110
Coach: Tyson Helton (40-26)
Western Kentucky enters the season with high expectations and should build on a strong 2023 and potentially challenge Liberty for the conference title. They secured TJ Finley via the transfer portal, a former highly touted recruit who impressed with 3,400 passing yards at Texas State. Elijah Young returns to lead the backfield after a productive 2023 with over 700 scrimmage yards. While replacing Malachi Corley poses a challenge, Dalvin Smith and the addition of Kisean Johnson could help offset his departure. Defensively, focal point Hosea Wheeler anchors the front, supported by newcomers Jaymar Mundy, Demarko Williams and Kent Robinson in the secondary to help the pass defense. With the potential for double-digit wins, Western Kentucky will eye a competitive season leading up to their visit to Lynchburg Nov. 23 against Liberty.
