Olympic Best Bets: Women’s 400 Meter Freestyle (7/27)

It’s 2024, which means it is an Olympic year, and now that the Paris Olympics are underway, we will be putting together a series of articles focusing on some of the more niche markets taking place throughout the Olympic Games. While sports such as basketball, golf and tennis take place, there are markets such as track and field as well as swimming in which I have found an interest in following due to the edges that can exist in the betting space.

In the opening week of the Olympic Games, we’ll be focusing on swimming, while the second week will turn to track and field. Today, we’ll be taking a look at the women’s 400-meter freestyle race.

Looking back at the 2020 (technically 2021) Tokyo Olympics, this was a two-woman race powered by Katie Ledecky and Ariarne Titmus of Australia. In a tight race, it was Titmus who took home the gold medal, edging out Ledecky by around seven-tenths of a second. Li Bingjie of China took home the bronze medal, while Summer McIntosh of Canada finished fourth. McIntosh is the name to remember, as the now-17-year-old has set records all across the swimming landscape over the last year, including the world record in the 400-meter individual medley. McIntosh additionally broke the Canadian national record in the 400-meter freestyle back in 2021 as a 14-year-old. In 2023, McIntosh broke the 400-meter freestyle world record with a time of 3:56:08, but Titmus broke that record just a few months later with a time of 3:55:38.

So, you might be thinking “Why all this talk of McIntosh and Titmus rather than the most decorated female Olympian of all time?” Well, since Ledecky set the world record in this race back at the 2016 Rio Olympics, Ledecky has taken home gold just three times (2017 Budapest World Championships, 2018 Tokyo Pan Pacific Championships, 2022 Budapest World Championships). At the 2019 and 2023 World Championships, as well as 2021 Tokyo Olympics, it was Titmus who took home the gold. 

So, that leads us to the current odds in this race, with heats set to take place tomorrow morning in Paris, which you can see below via FanDuel Sportsbook.

As you can see, Ledecky’s +470 number may look quite attractive, but given Titmus’ dominance in this race over the last few years, it’s no surprise to see her as the strong favorite. If you look at their respective Olympic trials, the big three swam the following below:

• Ariarne Titmus: 3:55:44
• Summer McIntosh: 3:59:06
• Katie Ledecky: 3:58:35

Now, that’s quite a difference, with Titmus well ahead of McIntosh and Ledecky, but it’s worth noting that times in Olympic trials are not a great measurement of how the actual Olympics will play out, as the goal at trials is to do what is necessary to qualify for the Olympics. Some may opt to race differently than others as well. Given that Titmus and McIntosh have traded world record times in this race within the last calendar year, while Ledecky’s best time since the Tokyo Olympics was 3:58:18 at the 2022 World Championships, I think there’s at least some value in Summer McIntosh at +350 to take home her first of multiple gold medals at these Olympic Games. 

Best Bet

Summer McIntosh (CAN) To Win 400M Freestyle Gold Medal (+370, FanDuel Sportsbook)