Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
We’re back with Fantasy Crossroads, talking wide receivers. DK Metcalf and DeVonta Smith continue to post really strong WR2 production in fantasy football. But is there a ceiling to finish as a top-12 wideout? Both players are entering the 2024 season with brand new schemes and plenty of competition for targets. And both wideouts have clearly demonstrated the ability to make plays deep down the field. So which player should you select in fantasy drafts in 2024?
You know the drill.
DeVonta Smith, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
The Case For Smith
DeVonta Smith has put together consecutive seasons of over 1,000 yards and exactly seven touchdowns, finishing as the WR14 and WR20 in fantasy points per game during that span. And very quietly, Smith’s 176 receptions since the 2022 season are the 12th-most among all wide receivers. Simply put, he’s been one of the better wideouts in the league basically since entering it back in 2021.
And he’s been doing it as the second option on his own team.
Over the past two seasons, AJ Brown has operated as the top wideout in Philadelphia. But it hasn’t stopped Smith from posting very strong WR2 production in fantasy leagues. From a raw points standpoint, Smith has finished as the WR19 and WR9 in PPR formats over the last two seasons, despite ranking just 28th and 14th in target share during that span. This past season, Smith posted a career-best 9.5 yards per target, which also ranked top-20 in the league. He has often done a lot of his damage on passes deep down the field, as 20% of his targets last year came from 20-plus yards out. And during his rookie season in 2021, that number was at 30.7%. The Eagles offense last year lacked a lot of movement or easy button completions for Jalen Hurts. As we look toward the 2024 season, that is going to change.
And it might really benefit Smith.
After one season in Los Angeles, Kellen Moore is now in Philadelphia where he’ll run the offense. Moore’s offenses have been heavily predicated on pace and pre-snap motion, two elements that were missing from the Eagles offense last year. In 2023, Philadelphia utilized pre-snap motion just 22.8% of the time, which ranked dead last in the entire NFL. The Chargers, meanwhile, ranked fifth in pre-snap motion rate at 55.7%, according to FTN Data. Individually, the Philadelphia wide receivers didn’t move around the formation very often. Brown posted a pre-snap motion rate of just over 4% last year, while Smith was at 3.2%, two of the lowest rates in the league. Only 17 of Smith’s 81 receptions from last year came with some in motion before the snap. But with Moore in Los Angeles, Keenan Allen was in pre-snap motion a healthy 25.9% of the time, one of the highest rates among qualified receivers. I expect Moore to move his two star receivers around a lot more, not only creating advantageous opportunities for Smith and Brown, but layups for Hurts, who averaged the fourth-fewest yards of separation per pass attempt in 2023 (1.64).
And while Smith is unlikely to simply see the identical role that we’ve seen from Allen and CeeDee Lamb in this offense, I do believe Moore will move him into the slot more in 2024. For his career, Smith has operated from the slot just 23.2% of the time. Expect Smith to see more free releases off motion, as well as more time from the slot to create easier completions for Hurts, on top of still getting plenty of looks deep down the field.
The Case Against Smith
You can pretty much guarantee that Smith, barring health, is going to finish as a top-24 fantasy wide receiver. The question, however, is what is his true ceiling? Does he have top-15 upside? If he’s utilized the way I think he will be in this offense, yeah, I think so. But we know that he is unlikely to see a massive target share with Brown there, on top of whatever usage we see from Saquon Barkley. Since entering the NFL in 2021, Smith ranks 21st among wideouts in total targets. He also isn’t a huge target in the end zone (you know, when the Eagles aren’t doing the tush push), seeing just 17 total end-zone targets over the last two seasons. The same can’t be said for his opponent in this matchup.
DK Metcalf, WR, Seattle Seahawks
The Case For Metcalf
A rock-solid fantasy wideout since 2020, DK Metcalf has finished no worse than WR24 in fantasy points per game during that span. Last season, he put together his third 1,000-yard season over his last four, while averaging 14.4 PPR points per contest. We also saw, for the very first time in his career, Metcalf miss a game due to injury. His availability has been elite and his play has been fantastic, too. A lot of the appeal with Metcalf is his ability to make plays down the field and score touchdowns. In 2023, Metcalf ranked top-five in end-zone targets (20) and has ranked no worse than sixth in any of his last four seasons. His 22 end-zone targets in 2022 ranked first, his 15 in 2021 ranked third and his 14 in 2020 ranked sixth. Last season, 40.8% of Metcalf’s targets came either 20-plus yards down the field or in the end zone, which means he sees some of the highest upside targets in all of fantasy football.
Entering the 2024 season, Seattle also has a new offense. Ryan Grubb comes over from Washington where he constructed one of the top passing offenses in college football. It featured a ton of 11 personnel (three wide receivers) with Rome Odunze, Jalen McMillan and Ja’Lynn Polk. This is a brand new system for Seattle, one they really haven’t featured since, well, ever. More explosive plays and more generating favorable matchups should be on the horizon, with plenty of passing out of 11 personnel. Metcalf will still get his looks deep down the field. He saw 20 targets off go routes last season and averaged a career-high 16.9 yards per reception. But I’m excited to see if there is more versatility to his usage in this new scheme.
The Case Against Metcalf
Like Smith, Metcalf isn’t someone you project to rank top 10 among wide receivers in target share, despite the immense talent. Outside of one season in 2021, Metcalf hasn’t come close to ranking that high. And although I like the vision of this new offense, it is going to be really beneficial for sophomore wide receiver Jaxon Smith Njigba, especially since the slot wideout gets favorable looks in this system.
The Verdict: DeVonta Smith
You can easily make the case for both players since there are plenty of similarities. And while Metcalf projects as the WR1 in his offense, he’s also competing with two other wide receivers for targets, while Smith is only competing with one. When a matchup is this close, something like that can be the deciding factor. And although I like the direction of Seattle’s offense, we still expect the Eagles offense to be the better unit in 2024.
