Drops & Disasters: Fantasy Baseball Roster Moves (6/30)

For this week’s article, I write to caution subscribers about a certain type of drop that, in my opinion, has become increasingly risky over the last several weeks and will become even more so in the upcoming weeks: cromulent starting pitchers. Mind you, I’m not referring to aces or near aces here. Readers do not need me to advise them to hold onto their stronger starting pitchers. No, my contention is that merely cromulent (but healthy) starting pitchers – your Michael Wacha, Lance Lynn and Charlie Morton types – will become increasingly valuable as the season progresses and should not be dropped without careful evaluation. Fantasy managers electing to drop cromulent starting pitchers should strive to replace them with other starters that, hopefully, represent upgrades.

As we approach and blow by the midpoint of the season, several trends related to pitching are worth noting for purposes of evaluating potential drops. First, many injury stashes on the pitching side are taking much longer than expected to debut. Fantasy managers are still waiting for Gavin Williams to make his first start. Remember when we thought Alex Cobb would be back about a month or so into the season? Eduardo Rodriguez still has yet to make his first rehab start. Shane Baz has yet to called up by the Rays. Optimistic fantasy managers that drafted and stashed Kodai Senga and Clayton Kershaw are still waiting to see those players in action.

Second, as we all have experienced, pitcher recovery times from injuries tend to be longer than that for hitters. Starting pitchers like Spencer Strider, Shane Bieber, Eury Perez and Emmet Sheehan were lost for the season months ago. Starters such as Clarke Schmidt, Garrett Whitlock, John Means and Paul Blackburn were having solid-to-strong seasons, only to get hurt and be placed or quickly transferred onto the 60-day IL. When the dozens of starting pitcher injuries requiring 15-day IL stints (but often requiring absences of a month or longer) are considered along with pitchers lost to longer-term injuries, one can appreciate how the supply of fantasy-desirable starters has thinned considerably. While pitcher injuries tend to be a constant throughout the calendar year, they have different roster construction implications deeper into the fantasy season. For instance, stashing a highly skilled starting pitcher for two months in April can be a worthwhile strategy, while embarking on that same two-month stash in July almost always is inadvisable.

Third, as we also are experiencing, pitchers returning from injury and/or getting a late start to the season are far from certain to perform at historic levels. Here are the current season-long stats for some highly regarded starting pitchers fitting this description, including last season’s Cy Young Award winners:

Fantasy managers stashing or planning to target starters such as Robbie Ray, Jeffrey Springs, Tyler Mahle, Drew Rasmussen and Jacob deGrom should understand that there are no guarantees that those players will: (a) avoid setbacks during their injury recoveries; (b) stay healthy if and when they do return to action; and (c) be able to pitch at or close to their historic norms despite very lengthy layoffs.

Fourth, some effective starting pitchers may have their future workloads managed by teams. For instance, earlier this week the White Sox indicated that Garrett Chochet’s innings would be limited: “We’re going to start dwindling his workload down a little bit, and we’ll manage that correctly,” said manager Pedro Grifol this past Tuesday. Grifol further stated: “This is going downhill now. We have to really monitor his workload.” Also, this week, the Pirates Jared Jones had his start skipped, despite the absence of any injury, in a decision that can only be seen as “load management.” With regard to Jones and teammate Paul Skenes, Pirates general manager Ben Cherington stated previously that the team was “going to have to look at some ways to manage volume and build in some recovery.” While Crochet, Jones and Skenes may be some of the bigger names that will have turns skipped and/or shorter outings going forward, other starting pitchers stepping up in innings surely will have their workloads “managed” as well.

All of these factors point to a potential growing scarcity in cromulent starting pitching. Moreover, while many fantasy managers were able to get away with streaming starting pitching earlier this season, streaming has become a riskier proposition now that the weather has warmed. Thus, fantasy managers should think twice about dropping a decent starting pitcher for anyone other than a better starter. While many starting pitchers lack plug-and-play skills, retaining a surplus of cromulent starters allows managers to play matchups when setting starting lineups. Even when seemingly favorable matchups go wrong, increased patience may be warranted. For instance, managers that “rage dropped” Spencer Arrighetti after he got lit up at home by the Tigers on June 15 probably missed his 7-inning shutout gem against the Rockies this week. The advice here is not to never drop starting pitchers; rather, it is to properly value decent, healthy starters and make sure you have enough of them when evaluating potential FAAB drops tonight (and future Sundays).

Some of the players that should at least be considered as potential drops this week are set forth below in the following two tables – the first includes hitters and the second includes pitchers. In addition to the player’s name, team and position, the tables include the player’s ownership percentage in the premier 15- and 12-team contests: the NFBC’s Main Event and Online Championship, respectively. Finally, the tables list my rankings as to how strongly – or not – I feel each particular player should be dropped in those 15-team and 12-team formats, respectively. The key to these rankings, from 0-4, is as follows:

• 0 = Do not drop
• 1 = Team context dependent; probably should not be dropped on most teams
• 2 = Team context dependent; compelling arguments to drop and not drop
• 3 = Team context dependent; probably should be dropped on most teams
• 4 = Drop

Potential Hitter Drops

Mets outfielder Starling Marte was placed on the IL this week with what has been described as a deep bone bruise in his knee. Current expectations are for Marte to miss approximately one month. Prior to the injury, Marte was having a solid season with 7 HR, 12 SB, 68 R+RBI and a .278 average. Although Marte will turn 36 shortly after the season ends, he has yet to be caught stealing this season, and his .300 xBA would be a career high. While my initial reaction to Marte’s recovery timetable was that he is an easy drop, upon further reflection I now can understand fantasy managers trying to hold Marte, especially in 15-team leagues, if the rest of their teams are largely healthy and do not have any or many stashes. While I suspect that Marte will be dropped almost universally this weekend, there are not many outfielders that can contribute speed with some power and average. That noted, Marte has a checkered health record, and a longer-than-expected IL stint cannot be ruled out. Additionally, given that the injury is to his knee, it is fair to question whether and to what extent Marte will continue to steal bases when he returns to action.

Masataka Yoshida is a tough call for fantasy managers. Given a five-year, $90 million contract last year by the Red Sox, Yoshida delivered in 2023 with a strong season (15 HR, 8 SB, 143 R+RBI, .289 AVG). This year, Yoshida has missed substantial time with a thumb injury and, since returning, has struggled. Coming into today’s games, Yoshida only has 2 HR, 0 SB, 27 R+RBI and a .238 average over 126 AB. Coming into this season, Yoshida looked like a solid mid-round target. While he lacks difference-making power, Yoshida projected to be a solid contributor in all five categories, including average, which can be very challenging to find. I do not think all that much has changed, but Yoshida’s outlook now is less appealing based due to several considerations. First, the Red Sox apparently have decided that Yoshida’s best fielding position is DH. In 2023, Yoshida played 87 games in the outfield, starting 84 of them. In 2024, Yoshida has zero starts and only one appearance in the outfield. This matters for fantasy because if Yoshida is providing no value with his glove, it is much easier for the Red Sox to sit him against left-handed pitchers – which they are doing – rendering him a strong-side platoon bat. Second, perhaps due to his injury, Yoshida is hitting the baseball less impactfully. Compared to last season, Yoshida’s exit velocity, max exit velocity, hard hit rate, barrel rate, and home runs per flyball are all lower. Third, Yoshida is not running at all this season; after going 8-for-8 in stolen base attempts in 2023, he has yet to attempt a steal this season. Given how little Yoshida has played this season, I might be inclined to give him another few weeks to see if he can get into some rhythm at the plate. That noted, Yoshida is droppable in 12-team formats by managers looking for more “fantasy juice” in the outfield. Teams that are well-positioned in homers and steals but lacking in average, however, should be leery about dropping Yoshida. In 15-team formats, Yoshida is a hold in most circumstances (except perhaps on teams that are strong in average and need to bolster homers and/or steals). To the extent managers elect to drop Yoshida, I would be choosy in doing so; I can see this drop being regrettable if Yoshida starts hitting like he did at points last season. The Red Sox have the pieces to be a strong offensive team in the second half.

Every FAAB period is different from the ones that preceded it. News changes frequently in this game, and oftentimes the outlook on players changes, for better or worse. Last week, I was growing skeptical about the strategy of continuing to hold Mike Trout, who had yet to even resume running. Recently, however, news broke that Trout now is pain free and anticipates returning to action by or before the end of July. Trout still has not started running, so risks remain, but this is an encouraging development and, in my opinion, warrants holding Trout. The time spent holding Trout to date is a sunk cost, but looking forward, the best news available right now is that Trout will be out for one more month and, hopefully, active for the final two months of the season. Given how well Trout was hitting earlier this season, I think he’s worth holding, even if the running game does not return.

The Giants Thairo Estrada went on the IL this past week with a wrist strain. It’s not clear how long Estrada will be out and, as long as there is an absence of news suggesting a lengthy absence, I would hold him. That noted, Estrada has had a disappointing fantasy season. At this point, Estrada has 9 HR and 79 R+RBI – which justifies holding him – but only 1 SB and a .231 AVG. After stealing 21 and 23 bases in 2022 and 2023, respectively, managers assuredly were expecting a lot more than one stolen base by this point in the season. While Estrada still can contribute with some power and good counting stats while filling either middle infield position, the absence of stolen bases likely would cause me to drop him should an extended absence be necessary.

Amed Rosario is not playing much, making it challenging for fantasy managers to continue rostering him. Rosario has many strengths, including: (1) he’s now eligible at second base, third base, shortstop and outfield; (2) he still possesses strong speed and is capable of stealing 20 or more bases if the opportunities are there; and (3) he hits for a high average (.296 currently), which is especially valuable in today’s game. These strengths, however, do managers little good if Rosario only is playing two games per week. Heading into Sunday’s game, Rosario has 7 at bats this week after totaling only 5 at bats last week. Managers that truly need Rosario’s roster spot should feel comfortable dropping him; it is unclear at this point if and when Rosario’s playing time will return. For managers that can afford to stash Rosario, however, I do think better days are ahead. Whether it’s by injury or trade, there’s are scenarios whereby Rosario becomes a regular starter again and can provide fantasy teams with average and stolen bases – the two scarcest hitting categories. On the other hand, dropping Rosario does not seem like a decision that will come back to haunt managers in the middle of the night; his skillset and historic production are more steady than spectacular.

In the midst of a strong comeback season, Giancarlo Stanton was placed on the IL with a hamstring strain about a week ago and is expected to miss approximately four weeks in total. Recent reports indicate that Stanton has resumed light activity on a treadmill. At the time of his injury, Stanton was hitting well (18 HR, 79 R+RBI, .246 AVG). Despite an extremely checkered health history and the complete absence of any stolen bases, Stanton should be held on the vast majority of teams, except, perhaps, by fantasy managers in 12-team leagues that cannot easily afford to stash him. Even if Stanton’s recovery is delayed until August, managers should get a middle-of-the-order slugger having a strong season in a very good lineup. Hitting behind Anthony Volpe, Juan Soto, Aaron Judge and Alex Verdugo should provide Stanton with no shortage of RBI opportunities.

It is time to revisit Jo Adell. The past month has not been kind to Adell or his fantasy managers. As we hit the midpoint of the season, Adell sits at 12 home runs and 9 stolen bases, making him one of the more valuable players in those two categories. The rest of picture, however, is not nearly as pretty – Adell is hitting .180 for the season with a 29.7% strikeout rate and a contract rate under 70%. Perhaps more importantly, Adell’s fantasy contributions have declined sharply as the season has gone on:

Looking under the hood, while Adell has been plagued by a low BABIP since the start of May, the rest of his game has deteriorated:

So, what to do about Adell? I think Adell is largely the player we are seeing: streaky, with a career .204 AVG. Adell already is at career highs in home runs and stolen bases for a season and dreams that he finally was turning a corner and becoming more than a “Quad-A” player probably have been dashed. That conclusion, however, does not necessarily warrant dropping Adell immediately. If managers need his roster spot, I do think he can be dropped, particularly in 12-team formats. The better move, however, may be to bench him until he shows signs of life. Encouragingly, Adell still seems to be playing regularly and after tallying double-digit strikeouts in Weeks 9, 10 and 12, he “only” has whiffed seven times in Weeks 13 and 14 combined. If I had to wager, I’d bet that Adell has at least one more “heater” left in him this season. That said, “extra” roster spots to stash ice cold hitters are becoming increasingly scarce, and managers probably are better off dropping Adell than starting him and riding out his lethal batting average waiting for that next hot streak.

With the return of Taylor Walls, Jose Caballero is starting to lose some playing time. Nevertheless, Caballero is a hold in all formats, except for fantasy managers sufficiently strong in stolen bases. Caballero’s strength is in his legs, and he has rewarded fantasy managers with a strong half-season with 4 home runs, 55 R+RBI, a decent .244 average, and, most importantly, 24 stolen bases. Sure, there are some warning signs here. Caballero has a high 27.5% strikeout rate, and his average has been boosted by a .331 BABIP that may regress. To the extent Caballero’s average declines, he may cede more playing time to Walls and/or his accumulation of stolen bases and counting stats may slow down. Despite this cautionary message, players capable of swiping 24 bags in a half-season do not grow on trees and, at least for now, Caballero still is starting most games (and, when he sits, remains a threat to steal bases as a pinch-runner). Thus, managers should hold Caballero for now, in both 15- and 12-team formats, but continue to monitor his playing time and effectiveness. If either or both wane, Caballero would become more droppable, and managers should remain cognizant that, absent stolen bases, Caballero is a below-average fantasy contributor.

Potential Pitcher Drops

Bryan Woo is having trouble staying on the field, and it is ruining what otherwise would be a breakout season for the young pitcher. Woo started the season on the IL with elbow inflammation. Woo was activated to pitch May 10, but was removed from his first start, after 4.1 scoreless innings, with forearm tightness. Nevertheless, Woo made his next start and pitched for about a month before being scratched June 11 for an MRI on his forearm, which came back clean.  Woo returned to action June 19 but was pulled early from his next start, June 24, with a strained hamstring, which landed him on the IL. Woo is eligible to be activated off of the IL July 10, and his hamstring strain has been labeled as “low-grade”; thus, there’s a possibility that Woo returns to the Mariners’ rotation in mid-July. For the season (8 starts, 40.2 IP), Woo has 3 wins, 28 strikeouts, a 1.77 ERA and 0.69 WHIP. While Woo has a mediocre strikeout rate and probably does not deserve his stellar stats (.198 BABIP, 4.00 SIERA), he has pitched well (2% BB%, 2.15 xERA) and should be held in all formats. While the multiple IL stints and missed or abbreviated starts are frustrating, fantasy managers should take solace that the current injury is minor and to his leg, unrelated to the elbow/forearm issues that plagued him early in the season. Woo simply has been pitching too well to drop, and he would be targeted aggressively by other managers if made available in FAAB. If, however, Woo experiences another setback related to his elbow/forearm, I then could see moving on from him, as that would signify more serious issues.

Garrett Crochet has exceeded his prior MLB high for innings pitched. In fact, Crochet already has pitched more innings in 2024 than he did in the 2020-2023 seasons combined, including time spent in the minors in 2023. As discussed above, White Sox manager Pedro Grifol indicated that Crochet’s workload was going to be reduced somewhat. So, should fantasy managers get ahead of the curve and drop Crochet? No. Crochet has been a revelation and arguably a top-five starting pitcher thus far this season. In 17 starts (94.1 IP), Crochet has 6 wins and a whopping 130 strikeouts to go along with excellent ratios (3.05 ERA and 0.94 WHIP). Crochet’s 29.5% K-BB% leads all baseball among qualified starters. Thus, while Crochet’s fantasy value in the second half is unlikely to equal that in the first half, and at some point, he may be shut down necessitating a drop, fantasy managers should continue to ride Crochet for as long as they can.

Chris Paddack was placed on the IL this week with what has been described as shoulder fatigue. Of course, Paddack barely pitched in 2022-2023 as he recovered from Tommy John surgery, and so there was no realistic expectation that Paddack would pitch the entire 2024 season. That noted, there were multiple reports that Paddack experienced “dead arm” following his last start, and so this IL stint is more than just a planned rest period to manage his innings. Fantasy managers should not expect Paddack back until after the All-Star break, but he could be out longer. If rookie David Festa pitches well, the Twins will have little incentive to rush Paddack back. After all, it is not as if Paddack was tearing things up before he got hurt. In four June starts, Paddack lasted only 17.1 innings and pitched to a 7.79 ERA and 1.62 WHIP. On the season, Paddack has 5 wins (in 15 starts) and 70 strikeouts (in 78.1 IP) with a 5.29 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. Thus, Paddack is hurting fantasy managers in both ratio categories. Paddack maintains solid strikeout and walk rates but gives up a lot of hard contact. While I generally prefer to retain starting pitchers, especially ones on good teams, I have concerns about Paddack’s underlying skills as well as his ability to return from injury timely and pitch effectively. I consider Paddack to be droppable in all formats but would try to replace him with another starting pitcher and would be more willing to hold (to see if he returns after the All-Star break) in the absence of appealing alternatives in 15-team leagues.

After pitching only 137.2 innings in MLB over 2020-2023, Spencer Turnbull signed with Philadelphia this offseason and, thanks to an injury to Taijuan Walker, started six games for the Phillies in April. During those six starts, Turnbull was brilliant, winning two games and pitching to a 1.67 ERA and 0.84 WHIP over 32.1 IP, with an ace-like 20.5% K-BB%. Despite such success, the Phillies moved Turnbull to the bullpen when Walker was ready to be activated, and Turnbull pitched in relief until a recent IL stint thrust Turnbull back into the rotation. Alas, Turnbull’s second act was painfully brief, as he exited his last start after only three innings with a lat strain. Following the inevitable IL designation, Phillies manager Rob Thornton announced that Turnbull would miss six to eight weeks. With only 13 weeks left in the MLB season, Turnbull now is a drop in all formats. Turnbull likely will return as a reliever and, in any event, uncertainty regarding his future effectiveness precludes stashing him for close to or more than half of the remaining season.

Several weeks ago, Dodgers starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto was placed on the IL with a right rotator cuff strain. The injury interrupted a stellar rookie season from Yamamoto, who in 14 games started had 6 wins, 84 strikeouts in 74 innings, and an excellent 2.92 ERA and 1.07 WHIP (which is especially impressive considering he surrendered 5 H+BB and 5 ER in his first MLB start, which lasted only one inning). In five of his starts, Yamamoto pitched at least five innings without allowing any runs. Thus, without question, Yamamoto can be placed in the “ace” category. The difficulty confronting fantasy managers is that Yamamoto is going to miss significant time, and there are no guarantees about when – or if – he will return. Dodgers manager Dave Roberts recently provided an update on Yamamoto, indicating that while he was recovering nicely, Yamamoto has not yet started a throwing program. Roberts previously said of Yamamoto’s injury that: “It’s gonna take some time, but it’s not season-ending.” At this point, one would expect Yamamoto to be sidelined for 3-4 weeks once he starts a throwing program. The Dodgers have a very comfortable lead in the standings and are not going to rush Yamamoto back. At this point, the Dodgers’ main priority is getting Yamamoto healthy for the playoffs, not the remainder of the fantasy season. Whether to hold or drop Yamamoto is team dependent. If he begins a throwing program in the next week or two, it makes sense to try to wait out his recovery, if possible. Given Yamamoto’s strong performance and great team context, he should be prioritized over the vast majority of potential pitching stashes. That noted, some teams are more riddled with injuries than others, and Yamamoto’s return is plagued by the following uncertainties: (1) it is not clear when he will commence a throwing program; (2) it is unknown how he will respond to a throwing program (and likely will be shut down for weeks if he experiences pain at any stage of a throwing progression); (3) it is unknown if Yamamoto will be as effective post-injury as he was pre-injury (for instance, his velocity dipped materially in his last start before going onto the IL); and (4) it is unclear how long it will take for the Dodgers to let Yamamoto pitch deep into games again. Managers unable or unwilling to hold Yamamoto for at least another month, with no guarantees of getting an ace back in August, probably should look to drop him. In my opinion, most pitchers with Yamamoto’s injury and likely recovery timeline would be drops at this point in the season, but having a true ace on your roster for the final month or two of the season can be a real difference maker, rendering this a very tough call.

I want to update my recommendation on Jordan Romano. Last week, I noted Romano’s injury concerns and poor performance and expressed a preference for Chad Green or even the injured Yimi Garcia. Despite that preference, I did recommend that if “fantasy managers have the room to stash Romano, it probably makes sense to do so, at least for a little while, to see if he is able to resume his throwing program in the next week or two.” Romano did resume his throwing program this past week but, after experiencing continued soreness, was shut down entirely from throwing. Romano is now scheduled to be seen by Dr. Keith Meister July 2 in an ominous development (Dr. Meister recently performed surgery on teammate Alek Manoah’s UCL). At this point, it is far from certain that Romano will make it back to the field this season and recommend dropping him in all formats.

After a short period of uncertainty, it appears that Hector Neris remains the Cubs’ closer, at least for now. I have several recommendations regarding Neris. First, if rostering him on your fantasy teams, do not watch him pitch – it is just not worth the aggravation. Second, if needing saves, Neris should be held, despite lousy ratios (4.25 ERA, 1.62 WHIP) and underlying metrics (for instance, a 6.0% K-BB%). Notwithstanding a steep decline in skills (Neris was an excellent reliever in 2023), he somehow has racked up 7 wins and 11 saves. Moreover, the Cubs seemingly lack any decent alternatives to Neris. Managers trying to balance a desire for saves with protecting ratios may find Neris to be more trouble than he’s worth. The Cubs are not playing particularly well and, if the team improves, so does the likelihood that they will trade for a better closer in July. If Neris’s potential for wins or saves is not worth the ratio damage, managers contemplating dropping him first should consider the ramifications of doing so (for instance, the risk of certain competitors winning Neris in FAAB and boosting their save totals).

Potential Disaster Starts

Set forth in the table below are starting pitchers who I believe have real disaster potential for the coming week. In order to make this section of the column as actionable as possible, pitchers that are sparsely rostered have been excluded. Instead, I am challenging myself by focusing solely on pitchers that are at least 90% rostered in the Main Event or at least 60% rostered in the Online Championship. The pitchers are ranked from 1 to 10 for disaster potential in the coming week, with the highest numbers reflecting pitchers I am highly unlikely to start and who strike me as the biggest potential disasters.

Despite missing two potential disaster outings from Blake Snell and Dean Kremer, who were kept down in the minors and did not make a start, I had my best week of the season picking disasters. Over five starts (with one scheduled for Sunday), my selections had zero wins and pitched to an 8.00 ERA and 1.83 WHIP. While my results have been up and down this season, reflecting the challenge of picking disasters when limiting the selection pool to only highly rostered starters, I may be hitting my stride with solid or better results in four of the last five weeks. In the interests of accountability, set forth below are the results of my “disaster” picks thus far.  Week 14 shows results through Saturday’s games and will be updated next week to include Sunday’s stats.