WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Puka Nacua is the dream — a player going undrafted (or essentially undrafted) and finishing as WR4. If you were the smart one to draft him or the lucky one to land him on waivers, Nacua alone was probably enough to at least get you into the fantasy football playoffs if the rest of your roster was even mildly competent.
It’s the dream — but generally speaking, it’s also the fantasy.
The fantasy world stumbles across massive risers like that every now and then, individual fantasy managers even more rarely. More common is the player who makes a small jump. The player drafted 10th at his position who finishes second. The player going as an end-of-the-list starter who becomes a weekly must-start. The bench player who sneaks his way into weekly consideration.
And for fantasy managers, those are very important as well. Assuming you are getting the majority of your roster at or close to value, the players who rise up a tier or two in the season are the ones who can get you a title.
So that’s what we’re looking for now. We’re not looking for players up and down the draft board who can be Puka Nacua. We’re looking for the ones who are the best candidates to rise up a tier. A back-end top-10 who can be No. 1. A second-tier starter who can be a lock-it-in guy. A bench player who can start. The risers who can make your season.
So far we have tackled the quarterback and running back positions.
Today: Wide receivers
Fantasy Football’s Tier Risers of 2024: Wide Receiver
Potential WR1 Finisher
Drake London, Atlanta Falcons
Third-year breakouts are fairly common in football as players acclimate to the NFL and learn to win at a higher level. One player poised to take a massive leap in their third season in 2024 is Atlanta’s Drake London.
Not only will London be getting an upgrade at quarterback in veteran Kirk Cousins, but he will also find himself transitioning from Arthur Smith’s run-centric offense to an offense helmed by former Rams pass game coordinator and quarterbacks coach Zac Robinson. While Robinson doesn’t have experience calling plays as an offensive coordinator, he still had a hand in turning the Rams into one of the more successful passing teams in the NFL over the past two seasons.
London has shown flashes of being an excellent wide receiver over the last two years, but he has been hampered by poor quarterback play when he’s had opportunities to make plays. Only 73.4% of London’s targets were deemed catchable from Desmond Ridder in 2023. Just 5.8% of Kirk Cousins’ passing attempts were uncatchable during his limited 2023 season. Despite London being the prototypical red zone weapon due to his size (6’4”, 213 pounds), London earned just six end zone targets in 2023. The veteran receiver had a respectable 1.98 yards per route run in 2023 but earned a target on just 24% of his routes.
In 2024, London will have to compete with Kyle Pitts, Bijan Robinson and Darnell Mooney for targets in a new-look Falcons offense. He will have an opportunity to see his target share grow with more pass attempts. We have seen London earn a dominant target share in the NFL (29.4% target share as a rookie) and have seen him produce strong weekly seasons over his first two years in the league.
London’s ADP has climbed considerably this offseason and fantasy managers will need to bet on environmental changes around London resulting in him ascending to top wide receiver status. However, we have never seen London function in an offense with good playcalling and strong quarterback play.
Potential Top-12 Finishers
Terry McLaurin, Washington Commanders
Veteran receiver Terry McLaurin has been the definition of solid for his entire NFL career. McLaurin has never finished with less than 12.0 fantasy points per game, nor has he finished with more than 15.0. His wide receiver finishes throughout his career range from the WR20 (2020) to the WR34 (2023). He has four straight seasons with at least 120 targets and 1,000 receiving yards but has never been able to match his rookie season touchdown total (7).
McLaurin struggled through bad quarterback play within a bad offense that wanted to play slow in 2023. The Commanders were 18th in pace of play in 2023, but still found a way to finish tied for first in passing attempts per game (37.4). Despite the high passing volume, McLaurin commanded just a 21.6% target share competing with Curtis Samuel and Jahan Dotson for touches. McLaurin was heavily utilized on vertical routes (28 deep targets, eighth most in 2023), but just 65.4% of his passes were deemed catchable.
McLaurin won’t need to compete with Curtis Samuel for targets in 2023, which means that he should see his target share increase. Of course (and far more importantly), he will benefit not only from a quarterback upgrade (rookie Jayden Daniels) but also from an offensive coordinator upgrade (Kliff Kingsbury). Daniels is coming off a season where he was one of the most accurate quarterbacks in college football, completing 72.2% of his passes in the SEC. Daniels is a prolific deep passer but was good in all sections of the field in 2023.
More importantly, McLaurin will be playing in a fast-paced offense that will rely on spread concepts and RPO passing. During his time as Arizona’s head coach, Kingsbury routinely had a top-three offense in terms of pace. Kingsbury also utilized RPO concepts for mobile quarterbacks, which is a one-read passing attempt designed to go to the team’s best receiver (look at Michael Pittman’s target increase in 2023 as a comparable). We have seen McLaurin be both productive and efficient throughout his career, but 2024 may be the first chance he can do both in the same season.
Receiving more accurate targets will be big for McLaurin in 2024, but we should also see his target share climb without another proven receiver to take targets away from them. It isn’t outside the realm of possibility we see McLaurin earn 150-plus targets in 2024. If that happens, he has the makings of a top-12 wide receiver in fantasy.
George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers
George Pickens has been set up to have a monster 2024 season. The Steelers traded away longtime target earner Diontae Johnson during the offseason and brought in two quarterbacks (Russell Wilson and Justin Fields) who are upgrades over Kenny Pickett. The hiring of Arthur Smith as offensive coordinator isn’t great, but he’s proven to be a better offensive coordinator than head coach during his career.
Pickens made the most of a bad situation in 2023, finishing with 106 targets, 63 receptions, 1,140 yards and five touchdowns in his second season. The second-year receiver struggled to earn targets when sharing the field with Diontae Johnson in a low-volume passing offense, but the advanced metrics suggest that he has the tools to be a top-end wide receiver. Pickens finished 21st among wide receivers in yards per route run (2.25) and fourth in yards per target (10.86) among players with at least 50 targets in 2023. Fantasy managers also got a glimpse of Pickens’ potential operating as the top wide receiver in an offense.
Pickens saw his fantasy production increase by five points in full-point and half-point PPR in his four games without Diontae Johnson in 2023. From Week 2 through Week 5, Pickens posted a top-15 mark in air yards share (50.1%), target share (27.1%), yards per route run (3.00) and receiving yards (357). Pickens had all the makings of a WR1 during his time without Johnson. Now we will see that for a full season with only a rookie (Roman Wilson) being added to replace Johnson’s production.
For as much criticism as Arthur Smith got for his player usage with the Falcons, he has shown the ability to produce a top-12 wide receiver in his passing offense. In 2020 with the Titans, A.J. Brown finished as the WR5 in fantasy points per game (15.2) with 106 targets, 70 receptions, 1,075 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns. Like Pickens, Brown was operating in an offense that didn’t feature a meaningful secondary receiving option that season.
Pickens has the size and athleticism to establish himself as the next dominant receiver in the NFL. He will finish as a top-12 wide receiver in 2024 thanks to his abilities, his improved team situation and the lack of target competition surrounding him.
Non-Starters Who Can Start
Curtis Samuel, Buffalo Bills
Buffalo’s passing attack will look very different in 2024 after the team decided to trade away Stefon Diggs (160 targets) and let Gabe Davis (81 targets) walk in free agency. Fantasy managers have acted accordingly, pumping up Dalton Kincaid (TE5, ADP 53) and rookie receiver Keon Coleman (WR44, ADP 71) in early drafts. Free agent acquisition Curtis Samuel (WR50, ADP 92) is also a top-100 pick, available well behind Kincaid and Coleman. That could be a mistake in fantasy.
Samuel is coming off two strong seasons with the Washington Commanders. Over the last two seasons, the veteran averaged 91.5 targets, 63 receptions, 634.5 receiving yards and four touchdowns per season. The veteran is primarily a slot receiver (67.3% slot rate in 2023) but does have the ability to play outside. It also helps that Buffalo’s offensive coordinator (Joe Brady) has shown the ability to get the most out of Curtis Samuel during their time together in Carolina.
Samuel had one of the most productive seasons of his career in Joe Brady’s offense in 2020, finishing with career-highs in receptions (77) and receiving yards (851) while competing for targets with D.J. Moore and Robbie Chosen (Anderson). Samuel was also utilized as a runner, finishing with 41 carries for 200 yards and two touchdowns. If Samuel can maintain that versatility in a far more ambiguous passing attack, he could be the most productive receiver in Buffalo.
Fantasy managers want to have a piece of Buffalo’s offense given their pace of play and the passing acumen of Josh Allen. Not only is Samuel one of the most reasonably priced options, but he also has the chance to finish as the top-scoring receiver in this passing attack.
Ja’Lynn Polk, New England Patriots
Many fantasy managers aren’t enthusiastic about the Patriots’ passing attack, which makes all of their players a fantastic value. One wide receiver who can have an impact in fantasy in 2024 is second-round rookie Ja’Lynn Polk.
Polk had his best season in 2023, setting career-highs in receptions (69), receiving yards (1,159) and touchdowns (9) while working as a complement to Rome Odunze in Washington’s explosive passing attack. He has good size (6-foot-1 and 203 pounds) and speed (4.52 40-yard dash), which gives him the ability to line up all over the offensive formation. The rookie entered the draft process as a Day 2 pick, but many were shocked to see him taken with the 37th overall selection of the draft. New England will hope that Polk and rookie quarterback Drake Maye can establish rapport early and stabilize their passing attack.
One of the reasons to target Polk in fantasy (aside from his WR66, ADP 142 price tag) is the simple fact that there won’t be much competition for targets for the rookie. Two of the Patriots’ top three target earners return in 2023 in DeMario Douglas and Hunter Henry, but neither player had more than 80 targets or 50 receptions. The Patriots also return Kendrick Bourne and Juju Smith-Schuster, but Bourne is coming off an ACL tear and Smith-Schuster is a shell of his former self. It wouldn’t be shocking for Polk to earn the WR1 role with New England from the jump given his ability to play on the outside.
The Patriots will also have more stability on offense in 2024. Both Drake Maye and Jacoby Brissett are better options than Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe. Additionally, the Patriots are making the controversial move of having an offensive coach call offensive plays, with Alex Van Pelt joining the team after being with the Cleveland Browns. The passing attack should be better, and while we don’t expect New England’s offense to be good, there will be fantasy relevance on this team.
