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Drops & Disasters: Fantasy Baseball Roster Moves (6/23)

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As the season progresses, player drop decisions are getting tougher. Virtually every team has its share of injuries. Thanks to the lack of exciting options available in FAAB over the past month,  fantasy managers seemingly are stashing more injured and/or minor league players. MLB teams are employing platoons more than ever, reducing the number of truly full-time hitters available, making the goal of maximizing plate appearances more challenging. At the same time, as the weather gets hotter, the risk of blow-up pitching starts increases, placing pressure on managers to roster enough pitching to avoid unfavorable matchups. All of these factors are coalescing to make drop decisions extremely challenging.

For this week’s article, I describe the circumstances that led me to drop a player that should be rostered in virtually all 15-team leagues. Hopefully, this “anatomy of a drop” will provide fantasy managers with useful food for thought when making similar decisions, even if readers disagree with my drop. In fact, I’m not sure that I agree now with my decision last Sunday. Rather than describing a particularly savvy or successful drop, I think digging into a more questionable – and possibly regrettable – decision is far more interesting.

This past Sunday, I dropped Bryan De La Cruz in my biggest FAAB league, an Ultimate league, which has 15 teams. Given that De La Cruz is 100% owned in the Main Event, this can be considered a highly questionable drop decision, and one that may very well come back to haunt me. (Of course, as if sensing my slight, De La Cruz homered three times this week, which is such a fantasy baseball “thing” to happen that I was not even surprised.) At the risk of looking foolish depending on how things play out, I will describe the thinking that led me to drop De La Cruz.

For some time, I have rostered four bench bats and three bench pitchers on my Ultimate team. One of those bench pitchers – the Guardians’ Gavin Williams – is a stash and has not been usable (but hopefully will be soon). On this team, my hitting is stronger than my pitching, and for weeks I have wanted to add another starting pitcher at the expense of a hitter, but the appealing options were extremely limited or non-existent. At further risk of looking foolish, this past Sunday I decided to attempt to roster Yariel Rodriguez on this team. While his initial foray into MLB did not go well (shortened starts, high WHIP), Rodriguez is healthy, has intriguing stuff and was pitching well in Triple-A (17 strikeouts in 7 innings in his last two starts). With Alek Manoah’s season-ending surgery and Ricky Tiedemann’s ongoing health issues, the Blue Jays need Rodriguez if they are to make any noise this season. I am middle of the pack in strikeouts in this league and am hopeful that Rodriguez can be a fantasy asset in the second half. Rodriguez had a rough start on Friday night – from my bench, thankfully – and will need to pitch much better for this transaction to be anything but a colossal mistake.

Having decided to target Rodriguez in FAAB, I needed to identify my potential drop. On this team, I had six outfield-only players and a seventh outfield-eligible player (Ryan O’Hearn), who I typically start at corner infield but can use in the outfield as needed. I am very fortunate to have Shohei Ohtani occupying my Utility slot on this team, meaning that I start no more than five outfield-only players each scoring period. Consequently, De La Cruz periodically was on my bench depending on matchups.

In evaluating my potential drops, I focused primarily on my six outfield-only players but did consider others. My weakest hitter, Geraldo Perdomo, is my backup second baseman and shortstop, and it did not seem optimal to me to leave myself without any reserves at the three middle infield positions. Without question, De La Cruz is a better fantasy asset than Perdomo, but I value having a reserve middle infielder, who is an everyday player in a solid lineup, that can be inserted (i) in case of injury, (ii) to take advantage of favorable matchups (for instance, a trip to Coors Field), or (iii) to avoid unfavorable matchups (for instance, if one of my starting infielders has a two-game scoring period). To be clear, I would be willing to forego rostering a reserve middle infielder in certain circumstances, but in the context of this team and league, I felt the better move was to drop an extra outfielder. As discussed below, I’m not sure this reasoning was correct.

In evaluating my outfielder-only players, I quickly eliminated Teoscar Hernandez, Anthony Santander and Tyler O’Neill as potential drops. Those hitters are too good to consider dropping. I then eliminated Randy Arozarena from consideration as a potential drop. Although Arozarena has struggled this entire season, he is starting to pick things up and has double-digit home runs and stolen bases. That left Cedric Mullins and De La Cruz as potential drops. Without question, De La Cruz has outplayed Mullins this season, and I periodically started De La Cruz over Mullins. Looking forward, however, I decided that Mullins is a better fit for this team. I currently am leading the league in home runs and RBI, which are De La Cruz’s two strongest roto categories. Stolen bases, however, are extremely competitive, and even when not hitting well, Mullins has been running (16 SB and counting, including three bags this week). I also like Mullins’ team context far better than that of De La Cruz. I covered Mullins as a potential drop in a recent article – and, in fact, did drop him in a 12-team league – so I am well aware of his shortcomings. For this team, however, I decided that Mullins’ speed gave him the edge over De La Cruz.

Looking back at this transaction, numerous questions can be raised regarding my decision:

  • Is Rodriguez a sufficiently strong starting pitcher to warrant dropping a hitter as good as De La Cruz? This remains to be seen, and if Rodriguez does not improve dramatically on Friday’s start, this transaction will not age well. In my defense, this is an extremely competitive league and starting pitching is a scarce commodity. Based on my evaluation, I concluded that Rodriguez could be a useful player for the rest of the season. I’m not ready to admit defeat on that call. That noted, I will have to guard against being stubborn and holding onto Rodriguez for longer than optimal should his performance continue to render him unusable.
  • If dropping a hitter for a pitcher, should I have instead dropped Perdomo, my weakest hitter, and simply done without a reserve middle infielder until needed? This is a tough one, and I see arguments on both sides. Without knowledge that De La Cruz would homer three times this week, I viewed him as a solid but unspectacular player whose primary fantasy contributions – power – are a strength of this particular team, lessening De La Cruz’s appeal to me. Importantly, however, De La Cruz is a much better fantasy asset than Perdomo, who is more easily replaceable. Maybe I should have dropped Perdomo and accepted the risk that if one of my middle infielders got hurt in the first half of the week, I would take a zero until a replacement could be added in the next FAAB run. As it turned out, I kept Perdomo on my bench this week but also would have sat De La Cruz for Mullins had I dropped Perdomo.
  • Notwithstanding my current position in the standings, was it the right move to drop De La Cruz, who is having a solid season, for Mullins, who is struggling to hit .200 and currently is no better than a strong-side platoon player? Again, a tough call. Given a solid lead in home runs and a very competitive stolen base category, I think it was at least a reasonable call to lean Mullins over De La Cruz. In Mullins’ defense, he is hitting a little better as of late, and the rest-of-season projections for him are solid (between 8-11 HR, 14-19 SB, and an average between .235 and .244) and, for fantasy, better than those for De La Cruz (between 9-11 HR, 2 SB, and an average between .255 and .266).

It will be interesting to see how things play out. Both Mullins and De La Cruz are having strong weeks, and despite three homers from De La Cruz, Mullins’ three stolen bases and one homer are more valuable to me in this league. That noted, no victory laps will be possible on this transaction unless Rodriguez pitches a heck of lot better than he did Friday night. If offering any specific advice for my fellow fantasy managers related to this transaction, it would be: (1) potential drops can be a very team-dependent decision; and (2) do not be afraid to make aggressive moves when you think they will help your team, even if it involves dropping a player who will be highly desired by others (for instance, I would bid fairly aggressively on De La Cruz if available in any of my other FAAB leagues). Fantasy managers probably make tens of thousands of decisions during the course of an MLB season. Do not be afraid to make a mistake; evaluate each hold/drop decision as well as you can, and when you do make a mistake, try to learn from it (and try not to beat yourself up over it).

Some of the players who should at least be considered as potential drops this week are set forth below in the following two tables – the first includes hitters and the second includes pitchers. In addition to the player’s name, team and position, the tables include the player’s ownership percentage in the premier 15- and 12-team contests: the NFBC’s Main Event and Online Championship, respectively. Finally, the tables list my rankings as to how strongly – or not – I feel each particular player should be dropped in those 15-team and 12-team formats, respectively. The key to these rankings, from 0-4, is as follows:

  • 0 = Do not drop
  • 1 = Team context dependent; probably should not be dropped on most teams
  • 2 = Team context dependent; compelling arguments to drop and not drop
  • 3 = Team context dependent; probably should be dropped on most teams
  • 4 = Drop

Potential Hitter Drops

Name Team Position Roster% (15tm) 15tm Drop? Roster% (12tm) 12tm Drop?
Mookie Betts LAD 2B/SS/OF 100% 0 100% 0.5
Jordan Lawlar ARI SS 11% 4 N/A 4
Johan Rojas PHI OF 81% 3.5 33% 4
Anthony Rizzo NYY 1B 90% 4 82% 4
Mike Trout LAA OF 100% 1 100% 2
Christopher Morel CHC 3B/OF 100% 0 100% 0
Mike Tauchman CHC OF 88% 4 34% 4
Justin Turner TOR 1B 74% 2.5 45% 3.5
Austin Wells NYY C 63% 2 11% 3.5
George Springer TOR OF 100% 1 98% 2
Leody Taveras TEX OF 81% 1.5 36% 3
Gabriel Moreno ARI C 100% 1 97% 2
Luis Campusano SD C 97% 1 92% 2

Last Sunday, I was skeptical about dropping a slumping but healthy Anthony Rizzo, recommending that he be held in the vast majority of leagues, and only dropped where a clearly superior alternative was available. This Tuesday, however, Rizzo was placed on the 10-day IL with a fractured right forearm and, one day later, was transferred to the 60-day IL. Rizzo will be shut down from baseball activities for up to five weeks and is expected to be sidelined for eight weeks. With this development, Rizzo is an easy drop tonight in all formats.

Christopher Morel can be a frustrating player to roster in fantasy. Morel is extremely streaky, and when he’s slumping, thoughts may turn to whether he should even be rostered. Let me assure any wavering fantasy owners that Morel indeed is worth rostering and should be held in both 15- and 12-team formats.  While Morel is hitting .202 and hurting teams in the average category, he has 14 HR and 7 SB. That is strong production that rarely can be duplicated with a FAAB acquisition. There also are some encouraging signs under the hood. Morel has cut his strikeout rate significantly, from 31% in 2023 to 21.5% this season. Morel also has an unlucky BABIP – about 100 points below what he averaged over the 2022 and 2023 seasons – that is ripe for positive regression (his .256 xBA currently is a career high). Managers rostering Morel should be patient and not drop him in frustration during a slump.

George Springer is a tougher call. I previously covered Springer and recommended patience in the face of uncharacteristically lousy performance. Unfortunately, Springer’s struggles have continued, and so it is timely to cover him again. Let’s be blunt – Springer has been terrible. Since 2016, Springer has hit 20+ HR in every full season (and had 14 HR in only 51 games in the COVID-shortened 2020 season). This season, Springer is stuck on 5 HR. While he has 8 SB, he only has 15 RBI (despite being moved off the leadoff spot a while ago) and is hitting .191 (despite hitting .258 or above every season going back to 2015). On the positive side, Springer’s batting eye is intact (his BB% is above his career average and his K% is below his career average) and his .218 BABIP suggests he’s been unlucky (his xBA is .250). On the negative side, Springer is at least partly to blame for low BABIP. Springer’s line drive rate currently is the lowest since his 2014 rookie season. His exit velocity has dropped 2 mph from last season and is at a career low. His barrel and hard-hit rates are also at career lows, and by comfortable margins. Thus, while Springer’s BABIP suggests his average should be higher, he is making far less impactful contact and, as he approaches 35, there are no assurances he can turn things around. While I tend to place a lot of stock in the numbers on the back of players’ baseball cards, at some point older players’ skills decline, and it appears we are at that stage with Springer. It also is worth noting that Toronto’s lineup has been disappointing, and Springer is unlikely to accumulate counting stats in the second half as he has in prior seasons. While I would not drop Springer for just anyone, he no longer should be considered an automatic hold in all formats, particularly 12-team leagues. 

Mike Trout is great; truly, a generational talent who is fun to watch. Through April 29, Trout was off to a strong start. While he only hit .220 through his first 29 games, he had 10 HR, 17 R and 14 RBI. Perhaps even more pleasing to his fantasy managers, Trout had 6 SB, the same number of bags he swiped during the entirety of the 2020-2023 seasons. Unfortunately, Trout tore his meniscus and was placed on the IL on April 30 and underwent knee surgery on May 3. Following the surgery, Trout was without a timetable for returning, but the injury was not believed to be of the season-ending variety. Predictably (and reasonably), managers elected to hold Trout, and he currently is 100% owned across the Main Event and Online Championship formats. But should he be? How long of a stash is too long? Seven weeks following his surgery, word came out this week that Trout still has not resumed running or doing baseball activities. Trout has missed more games than he has played since the start of the 2021 season, and this recovery (or lack thereof) reminds me of his slow-healing calf injury from several years ago. While there still is more than half the season remaining to be played, it is difficult to fathom Trout being back before August given the recent news. My concerns about holding Trout include: (1) his recovery is taking longer than expected, and this is not the first time that has happened; (2) if Trout still cannot run after seven weeks, he is far away from playing in MLB games; (3) the lack of a recovery timetable is concerning, and given Trout’s injury history, there is a real risk of setbacks during his rehab; (4) the Angels are a bad team and almost certainly will not be competing for a playoff spot this year, meaning that neither the team nor Trout will have any incentive to hurry him back into the starting lineup; and (5) I am skeptical that Trout will resume running when he does return, given the serious knee injury. Managers with a free roster spot and a more optimistic outlook concerning Trout’s return to action should continue to hold, but this hold/drop decision is much closer than the current ownership percentages would suggest.

Last season, Rangers outfielder Leody Taveras was a solid if unspectacular fantasy asset (14 HR, 14 SB, 134 R+RBI, and .266 AVG). This season has been a different story. Taveras has 5 HR and 6 SB thus far, which puts him on about the same pace as last season, but his average has fallen to .211. Taveras’ underlying metrics suggest a player who should be performing better. His walk rate has risen, and his strikeout rate has fallen. Taveras has a strong hard-hit rate (40.5%) and, while he is hitting more fly balls, that does not explain a sharp decline in BABIP (.344 in 2022, .318 in 2023, .250 in 2024). Other than a lower batting average than expected or deserved, Taveras’ underlying skills look intact and similar to prior seasons. The problem, I think, is that Taveras is only a mediocre hitter who relies on an everyday role and strong supporting cast to help bolster his stats. Thus, when a victim of an unlucky BABIP, the results are not pretty. I also note that Taveras’ HR/FB rate has declined and is in line with his 2022 rate; it is not clear whether the double-digit rate posted in 2023 should be the expectation for this season. With regular playing time, Taveras still is a good bet to match his 14 SB total from 2023; I am less confident in him getting to 14 HR again. Unless there are some unusually strong options available in FAAB and/or a team is strong in SB, Taveras is a hold in a majority of 15-team leagues. In 12-team leagues, I would be looking to upgrade from Taveras with an outfielder with more fantasy “juice.”

Mookie Betts suffered a broken hand when hit by a pitch last Sunday. He is expected to miss 6-8 weeks. While that is a long time to stash a player, especially this far into the season, Betts is a must-hold in virtually all contexts. Unlike the Trout injury addressed above, there is greater certainty regarding Betts’ recovery duration. While an 8-week IL stint would keep Betts out until mid-August, he is a sensational talent in a great lineup who should be able to pick up right where he left off (10 HR, 9 SB, 90 R+RBI, .304 AVG) upon his return.

The Cubs’ Mike Tauchman strained his groin and is expected to miss four weeks of action. While Tauchman was having a solid season (5 HR, 5 SB, 57 R+RBI, .259 AVG), he is not the caliber of player fantasy managers should stash for a month, or longer, in either 12- or 15-team leagues. If managers like what Tauchman provides, I recommend dropping him and then possibly attempting to reacquire him in a few weeks. It should not need saying, but there is nothing that prevents managers from reacquiring players previously dropped; I do it multiple times every season.

Finally, let’s discuss two recently-injured catchers: Gabriel Moreno and Luis Campusano. Thus far, both catchers can be considered disappointing from a fantasy perspective. Moreno has 3 HR, 0 SB, 49 R+RBI, and .230 AVG. While fantasy managers should have had tempered expectations for Moreno’s power, he hit .284 last season with 6 SB and is nowhere close to either mark in 2024. Campusano has 5 HR, 0 SB, 56 R+RBI, and .236 AVG. After hitting .319 last season in 49 games, managers were hopeful for more from Campusano in 2024. Yesterday, Moreno and Campusano were placed on the 10-day IL with what sound like relatively minor ailments: Moreno with a sprained thumb (X-rays were negative) and Campusano with a bruised thumb that the team indicated he could play through if necessary. In both cases, the current expectation is for a minimum IL stint. So, what do with them?

Catcher injuries often present challenging drop decisions for fantasy managers. The primary options are: (1) drop the injured catcher for a replacement; (2) stash the injured catcher and drop another player for a short-term replacement; and (3) drop no one and take a zero from the catcher slot, hopefully for a limited period of time. While in most cases taking a zero from any roster spot is inadvisable (every season, so many leagues turn on one or two runs, homers or RBI), it sometimes is the better play than to drop a valuable fantasy player for a short-term “scrub” replacement catcher. If leaning toward the “taking a zero” option, be aware that teams and players are notoriously unreliable when it comes to injuries and recovery times, and so there is a risk that Moreno and/or Campusano will not be activated immediately after 10 days.

The best way to handle Moreno and Campusano is team- and league-dependent. While both players have been disappointing, rest assured there will be no shortage of suitors for their services next Sunday if dropped tonight. While there sometimes are appealing catcher options available in FAAB (David Fry immediately springs to mind, and perhaps Ben Rice this week), the alternatives available currently will vary by league. If I had a roster spot to spare for a week, I would hold both Moreno and Campusano in the hope of stronger second halves (and FAAB the best replacement I could acquire cheaply for next week). If I had no easy drop, I then would evaluate whether there are any catchers available in FAAB for whom I’d swap out Moreno or Campusano for the rest of the season (factoring in the zero for at least next week if holding the injured player). If I regarded the available alternatives as clearly inferior to Moreno and Campusano, then I would hold the injured player and take a zero from the slot, as painful as that would be. With a majority of the season left to be played, if I truly had no acceptable drop, I would prefer to keep the better player and take a zero for a week or slightly longer than to replace that player with someone inferior. I’ll end by noting that although I think Moreno and Campusano are comparable and I leaned Moreno during draft season, right now it would be slightly tougher for me to drop Campusano than Moreno. 

Potential Pitcher Drops

Name Team Position Roster% (15tm) 15tm Drop? Roster% (12tm) 12tm Drop?
Kyle Bradish BAL SP 72% 4 51% 4
Walker Buehler LAD SP 100% 1.5 99% 2.5
Yimi Garcia TOR RP 72% 0.5 68% 1
Justin Verlander HOU SP 100% 0 100% 0.5
Héctor Neris CHC RP 98% 0.5 99% 1
Spencer Arrighetti HOU SP 79% 1.5 24% 3
Keaton Winn SF SP 90% 4 12% 4
Casey Mize DET SP 63% 2.5 22% 3.5
Jordan Romano TOR RP 100% 1.5 100% 2
Merrill Kelly ARI SP 83% 2.5 44% 3.5
Jesús Luzardo MIA SP 100% 2.5 100% 3.5
Zack Littell TB SP 97% 2 85% 3
Jordan Hicks SF SP 100% 2 98% 3

Updating a potential drop from last week’s article, on Wednesday Kyle Bradish underwent Tommy John Surgery with an internal brace. Bradish is a drop in all formats and likely will not pitch again in MLB until the 2026 season.

Keaton Winn also is a drop in all formats. The Giants were hoping that Winn would solidify a role in their rotation this season, but that has not happened. Through 12 starts (55.1 IP), Winn has pitched to a 7.16 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP. While Winn’s xERA and SIERA (5.42 and 4.13, respectively) are not nearly as bad as his ERA, it would be a stretch to describe Winn as a good pitcher. He may become one in the future, but that time is not now. On top of lousy performance, Winn recently was placed on the 15-day IL with elbow inflammation. This is Winn’s second IL trip; his prior injury was a forearm strain. Two IL stints related to a pitcher’s elbow/forearm are disconcerting, and I would not be surprised if Winn misses extended time. While Winn has flashed some intriguing skills for short periods of time, it now is time for fantasy managers to say goodbye.

After a strong start to the season, Jordan Hicks has come crashing back to earth. The table below shows a clear decline in Hicks’ effectiveness, part of which appears BABIP-related:

Month(s) ERA WHIP AVG BABIP
March/April 1.59 0.91 .181 .225
May 3.99 1.33 .254 .284
June 5.19 1.90 .304 .380

A reliever converted to a starter, Hicks now has thrown 80.2 innings, which represents an MLB career high (he threw 105 innings in 2017 in the low minors). Given this history and the sharp decline in performance, one easily could conclude that Hicks is fatigued. While higher BABIPs recently may indicate that some bad luck is involved, the more likely explanation is fatigue. When you look under the hood, Hicks’ performance declines precipitously the deeper into games he pitches:

Time Through the Order K% BB% K-BB% ERA
First Time 22.2% 5.6% 16.7% 2.39
Second Time 21.5% 13.2% 8.3% 2.35
Third Time 11.3% 7.5% 3.8% 8.03

With these results, it is difficult to see Hicks being allowed to pitch deep into games, limiting his ability to earn wins. Importantly, the fact that Hicks appears fatigued and should not pitch deep into games is different from determining whether he should be dropped. Hicks currently is owned in all Main Event leagues and virtually all Online Championship leagues. Despite that, I currently see Hicks as a matchup play only and would recommend at least considering potential replacements each week. Given the limited number of innings Hicks has thrown throughout his career, I have a difficult time envisioning him “catching a second wind” and pitching much more effectively as the season progresses (although stranger things have happened in baseball). I think an eventual move to the bullpen or IL stint is more likely. While I would not rush to drop Hicks for a weekly streamer type, I would do so for truly appealing pitching options that become available.

It has been rough sledding recently for Zack Littell’s fantasy managers. Through 15 starts, Littell has a 4.20 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, and only 2 wins. Littell is another reliever converted to starting, although his transition started last season. For the most part, Littell’s 2024 season looks very similar to his 2023 season, but with a much-higher WHIP.  Littell does not pitch deep into games, and so wins are hard to find (in 2023, Littell pitched in 28 games, starting 14 of them, and only had 3 wins). Littell has excellent control but does not whiff as many batters as desired. While some pitchers can compensate for a lower strikeout rate with volume, that is not the case with Littell, and so he will not be an asset in the strikeout (or win) category. Littell’s 4.20 ERA is in line with last season’s 4.10 ERA, as well as this year’s xERA (4.14) and SIERA (3.82). The higher WHIP (1.38 in 2024 compared to 1.18 in 2023) can be traced to a higher BABIP (.347 compared to .293). While Littell is allowing about the same number of barrels and hard-hit balls, the higher BABIP can be attributed, at least in part, to a higher line-drive rate (24.5% compared to 19.5%). It also appears that Littell has lost at least a tick off his fastball velocity. I do not have any startling revelations to offer about Littell – this is kind of who he is, it seems. Similar to Hicks, I view Littell as no more than a matchup play. For fantasy purposes, he is below-average in wins and strikeouts, and right now it is tough to see him becoming an asset in the ratio categories. That noted, good starting pitching is a scarce commodity and finding clear-cut improvements to Littell (and Hicks, for that matter) may be challenging. Littell has a home start this week against the Mariners, whose lineup does not scare me. Thus, I would not drop him for just anyone, but it is reasonable – if not advisable – to be evaluating potential upgrades on a weekly basis, which I suspect will be more plentiful in 12-team leagues than 15-teamers.

Something is not right with Jordan Romano. He is on his second elbow-related IL stint of the season, and it recently was announced that he has been shut down from throwing due to experiencing elbow soreness following throwing from 120 feet. The fact that Romano was not even able to make it to mound work in his throwing program before experiencing a setback is an ominous sign. Even when active, Romano has been uncharacteristically ineffective, pitching to a 6.59 ERA and 1.46 WHIP over 13.2 innings. While the Blue Jays contend that the problem only is inflammation and that Romano’s elbow is structurally sound, I am growing increasingly pessimistic about his ability to contribute to fantasy teams this season. Right now, I would rather roster Chad Green or an injured Yimi Garcia (elbow soreness) than Romano. If fantasy managers have the room to stash Romano, it probably makes sense to do so, at least for a little while, to see if he is able to resume his throwing program in the next week or two. That noted, if managers need and are struggling to find a drop, I can understand cutting bait with Romano, especially if Green and/or Garcia are available.

Fantasy managers stashing Merrill Kelly may want to reconsider that strategy. While it had been hoped that Kelly would make it back by the All-Star break, his recovery is going slower than expected. Kelly recently was quoted as saying: “In my mind, I’m hoping I’m on that Tampa, Miami, Boston trip …. That seems to be around the right time I might be back in there. But obviously things can change as we go along.” The road trip to which Kelly refers runs from August 16-25, a full month after the MLB All-Star Game. Remember, the cost of stashing Kelly to date is sunk and irrelevant to the decision whether to stash him from this point forward. Now, all that matters is whether stashing Kelly for approximately 7-8 weeks in order to hopefully have him active for the final six weeks of the season represents an optimal strategy. Given the risks of setbacks and reduced performance, that price is too high for me, but I can understand if managers with relatively healthy teams and a free roster space feel otherwise.

Walker Buehler was placed on the IL with hip inflammation, which in this case may be Dodgers-speak for “crappy performance.” While Buehler did take a line drive off his hip, a break in his comeback may have been unavoidable given his recent outings. Through eight starts (37 IP), Buehler has one win, a 5.84 ERA, and a 1.51 WHIP. Following his second Tommy John Surgery, Buehler does not look like the same pitcher he once was, and his high ownership rates probably are more of a reflection of Buehler’s reputation and team context than a critical assessment of his current skill level. I could not locate a clear timeline for when Buehler may be activated. If the IL stint is really related to hip inflammation, he should be back relatively soon. On the other hand, if the Dodgers want to see better performance before activating Buehler, the wait could be longer, possibly much longer. While I might hold to see if a short break leads to improved performance, Buehler would not be a high-priority stash for me and, if looking at an extended absence, would cut my losses and move on – the 2024 version of Buehler is not worth a long-term stash.

Potential Disaster Starts

Set forth in the table below are starting pitchers I believe have real disaster potential for the coming week. In order to make this section of the column as actionable as possible, pitchers who are sparsely rostered have been excluded. Instead, I am challenging myself by focusing solely on pitchers who are at least 90% rostered in the Main Event or at least 60% rostered in the Online Championship. The pitchers are ranked from 1 to 10 for disaster potential in the coming week, with the highest numbers reflecting pitchers I am highly unlikely to start and who strike me as the biggest potential disasters.

Pitcher Team Matchup #1 Matchup # 2 Disaster Level Notes
Jordan Montgomery ARI v MIN 6 MIN is tough matchup with Lewis homering every game; not sure Montgomery is fully back
Dean Kremer BAL v TEX 6.5 Like the pitcher but am leery about starting marginal pitchers after extended absence
Erick Fedde CWS v LAD 6.5 Fedde has been really good, but sometimes it’s best not to get greedy
Logan Allen CLE @ BAL @ KC 8.5 Really tough road two-step for a marginal starter
Blake Snell SF v LAD 7 Lousy season; coming back from injury and gets the Dodgers; no thanks
Max Scherzer TEX @ BAL 7.5 At BAL is a “no fly zone” for all but aces; no longer view Scherzer as an ace
Yariel Rodríguez TOR @ BOS 7 Recently added Rodriguez on bunch of teams, but after last start, I’m benching him here

Last week’s results were much more to my liking. While I missed strong starts by David Peterson, Matt Waldron and James Paxton, I nailed disaster starts by Albert Suarez, Walker Buehler and Bobby Miller. I am optimistic that I would have nailed two additional disaster starts, but Patrick Sandoval left his start against the Dodgers prematurely due to injury, and Cooper Criswell was demoted before he could make his next scheduled start. With one scheduled start to go, my picks tallied a 4.71 ERA and 1.35 WHIP, which I count as a strong week.

Week IP H+BB ER Wins Strikeouts ERA WHIP
Week 2 55.2 69 28 2 60 4.53 1.24
Week 3 33.0 55 14 2 30 3.82 1.67
Week 4 40.0 55 21 3 36 4.73 1.38
Week 5 36.0 32 11 2 38 2.75 0.89
Week 6 46.2 56 19 4 34 3.66 1.20
Week 7 52.1 70 30 0 49 5.16 1.34
Week 8 32.2 43 12 3 30 3.31 1.32
Week 9 34.1 38 9 4 23 2.36 1.11
Week 10 40.0 64 22 1 57 4.95 1.60
Week 11 45.2 66 22 3 43 4.34 1.45
Week 12 45.0 48 15 5 44 3.00 1.07
Week 13 36.1 49 19 3 28 4.71 1.35
Season 503.2 650 224 33 475 4.00 1.29
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