2025 NCAA Tournament Top 16 Seed Prediction

It is one of my favorite events of the NCAA college basketball season. 

Saturday, the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee will provide college basketball fans with a glimpse into their mind by providing their current top 16 seeds in March Madness. While this will certainly change, the Selection Committee will reveal who the top four seeds would be in each specific region, if the tournament started this Saturday. I always try to match the exact top 16 seeds, coming very close each of the past two seasons. 

Here is my projection of how the 2025 seeding committee will place the top four seeds in each region on Saturday’s NCAA Bracket Preview Show. 

(All statistics from WarrenNolan.com).

Predicting the Top 16 Seeds in the 2025 NCAA Tournament

The No. 1 Seeds

Auburn

Record: 22-2
SOS: 1
NC SOS: 7
Q1 Record: 13-2
Q1 & Q2 Record: 16-2

Auburn gets the vote over Duke for the No. 1 overall seed, despite the Blue Devils’ head-to-head victory. Auburn is No. 1 overall in KenPom and has an astounding 13 Quad I victories, eight more than Duke. 

Duke

Record: 21-3
SOS: 55
NC SOS: 17
Q1 Record: 5-3
Q1 & Q2 Record: 9-3

Duke has been the second-most impressive team all season, with a home victory over Auburn. Playing in the ACC hurts their overall SOS, but a solid NC SOS makes that irrelevant. Freshman Cooper Flagg is dominating opponents, even when he’s not scoring. 

Houston

Record: 20-4
SOS: 51
NC SOS: 70
Q1 Record: 5-3
Q1 & Q2 Record: 10-4

The Cougars are the victim of some close, overtime losses, which are always fluky. The neutral-court loss to San Diego State is their only questionable defeat. Cougars are leading the Big 12 yet again, by one game over Arizona. They are the No. 1 team in our FTN College Basketball Power Rankings.

Alabama 

Record: 21-3
SOS: 4
NC SOS: 10
Q1 Record: 8-3
Q1 & Q2 Record: 15-3

Despite a lack of 3P efficiency early in the season, the Crimson Tide present a very favorable resume. They have a chance to push for an even higher overall seed with a victory tomorrow against Auburn. Their eight Quad I wins are tied for the second most behind Auburn. 

The No. 2 Seeds

Purdue

Record: 19-6
SOS: 7
NC SOS: 8
Q1 Record: 7-6
Q1 & Q2 Record: 14-6

Purdue has quietly enjoyed a brilliant season, even after losing Zach Edey to the NBA. The Boilermakers have brilliant SOS numbers and carry an 87-78 home victory over Alabama. Point guard Braden Smith is playing at a first-team All-American level. 

Florida

Record: 21-3
SOS: 34
NC SOS: 248
Q1 Record: 5-3
Q1 & Q2 Record: 12-3

I was slow to believe in Florida, as a direct result of their poor NC SOS. They are clearly a legit Final Four contender, as illustrated by last weekend’s 90-81 win at Auburn, despite being without starting guard Alijah Martin. The Gators are Top 8 in both offensive and defensive efficiency per KenPom.

Tennessee 

Record: 20-5
SOS: 8
NC SOS: 123
Q1 Record: 8-5
Q1 & Q2 Record: 10-5

Some will be surprised to see the Volunteers this high, but head coach Rick Barnes has an elite defensive team that boasts eight Quad I victories. This includes a 20-point home victory over Florida despite missing two starters (Zakai Ziegler, Igor Milicic). Their 20-point win at Louisville looks better every day. 

Iowa State

Record: 19-5
SOS: 37
NC SOS: 98
Q1 Record: 7-4
Q1 & Q2 Record: 10-5

Iowa State is a couple of bad bounces from being a No. 1 seed. They went to Arizona and led by three points with under five seconds left before Caleb Love’s desperation shot sent the game to overtime. They also played that game (and six others) without starter Milan Momcilovic, enduring four losses during that span. They are one of the most dangerous teams in the country that will be undervalued in tournament time. 

The No. 3 Seeds

Texas Tech

Record: 19-5
SOS: 53
NC SOS: 290
Q1 Record: 6-3
Q1 & Q2 Record: 8-5

Their two Quad II losses early in the season (St. Joseph’s, UCF) keep them from the No. 2 line, but the Red Raiders are playing as well as any team in the country. Their 82-81 OT win at Houston, after JT Toppin and head coach Grant McCasland were ejected four minutes into the game, is the best win of the season for any team. Their Jan. 4 win at Kansas State continues to look ever better as the season progresses. 

Arizona

Record: 17-7
SOS: 12
NC SOS: 32
Q1 Record: 7-7
Q1 & Q2 Record: 9-7

The Wildcats have an impressive group of Quad I wins, including Texas Tech, Iowa State and Baylor. They have a huge matchup at home against Houston on Saturday, which could push them to the 2-line in March. 

Kansas 

Record: 17-7
SOS: 13
NC SOS: 25
Q1 Record: 5-6
Q1 & Q2 Record: 10-7

Kansas has been resilient all season, even dealing with a lack of production from transfer A.J. Storr and a lingering injury to starting forward K.J. Adams. The Jayhawks always boast elite SOS metrics and handed Duke one of their three losses earlier this year. 

Texas A&M

Record: 19-5
SOS: 5
NC SOS: 31
Q1 Record: 7-5
Q1 & Q2 Record: 13-5

Head coach Buzz Williams knows how to build winning teams, and his Aggies are on the precipice of four straight 20-win seasons. Texas A&M has one of the most feared scorers in the country in Wade Taylor IV, who can single-handedly win multiple games in March. 

The No. 4 Seeds

Illinois

Record: 17-8
SOS: 18
NC SOS: 46
Q1 Record: 7-7
Q1 & Q2 Record: 11-8

Illinois seemed headed for a top-two seed before suffering a litany of injuries. Star freshman Kasparas Jakucionis missed two games when the Illini were 12-3 and 4-1 in the Big Ten. Head coach Brad Underwood then lost 7-foot-1 center Tomislav Ivisic for three games, two of which were losses. When at full strength, the Illini are very dangerous, as proven by their magical Final Four run last season. 

St. John’s 

Record: 21-4
SOS: 68
NC SOS: 152
Q1 Record: 3-4
Q1 & Q2 Record: 9-4

The Red Storm have been one the nation’s most impressive teams over the last month. Two of their four losses were in overtime to Baylor and a one-point defeat at Creighton. Their defense is stifling, currently second in the nation per KenPom. They hold a one-game lead over Creighton in the Big East and host the Bluejays Sunday at Madison Square Garden.

Kentucky

Record: 17-7
SOS: 2
NC SOS: 45
Q1 Record: 8-6
Q1 & Q2 Record: 8-7

Head coach Mark Pope has done a brilliant job during his inaugural season with the Wildcats. Kentucky has a strong SOS with solid Quad 1 wins but is only 0-1 against Quad II opponents and has struggled defensively. 

Marquette 

Record: 19-6
SOS: 36
NC SOS: 11
Q1 Record: 5-4
Q1 & Q2 Record: 11-6

The Golden Eagles round out the top 16 seeds, giving us our second Big East team. Marquette would be higher on this list if not for a recent three-game losing streak. They tallied an early-season victory over Purdue but stumbled at Dayton and home to Xavier. Their defense and presence of Kam Jones make the Golden Eagles a tough match against any opponent.