2025 NCAA Tournament: First Four Picks

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The NCAA Tournament officially starts Tuesday, with the first of two consecutive days of First Four matchups. The University of Dayton hosts four games over the next 48 hours, which include high-profile programs such as North Carolina, Texas, San Diego State and Xavier. These early matchups have been contested for 14 years, and a team from the First Four has advanced at least one additional round in all but one of those years (2012 the exception).

Here are my picks for the First Four games of the 2025 NCAA Tournament.

2025 NCAA Tournament First Four Picks

St. Francis (PA) +3.5 vs. Alabama State 

(-110, DraftKings Sportsbook)

Alabama State won the SWAC Conference Tournament despite finishing fourth in the regular season. The Hornets were only predicted sixth in the preseason poll but finished the year winning 10 of their last 11 games. They are led by the three-headed scoring attack of CJ Hines (14.4 PPG), Amarr Knox (14.3 PPG) and TJ Madlock (12.6 PPG). 

Saint Francis caught absolute fire to end the regular season, winning three-straight overtime matchups, and three-straight NEC Conference Tournament games to qualify for March Madness. Their last two wins were true road victories, giving them an advantage heading to Dayton. The Red Flash are superb at defending the 3P, which is where 43% of Alabama State’s shots originate. 

In what I make a coin-flip game, I’ll grab the battle-tested Saint Francis team at a neutral site. 

The Pick

Saint Francis +3.5

San Diego State +4.5 vs. North Carolina

(-115, DraftKings Sportsbook)

The public was shocked to see North Carolina make the tournament, especially after a brutal 1-12 record against Quad I opponents. Regardless, the Tar Heels are a 4.5-point favorite over a San Diego State that beat Houston earlier this season. The Aztecs received good news as 7-foot freshman Magoon Gwath will be available for this matchup, giving San Diego State a critical interior advantage against the undersized Tar Heels. The Aztecs are a fixture in March, and Dutcher is a superb tournament coach. I’ll gladly take the underdog, who I believe will win this game outright. 

The Pick

San Diego State +4.5

Mount St. Mary’s +2.5 vs. American

(-110, DraftKings Sportsbook)

The Mount has impressed this season, especially on defense. They held opponents to just 31.4% from deep, ranking top-50 in the nation. They play at a fast pace, which often leads to turnovers (359th in the nation per KenPom). Head coach Donny Lind returned as a first-time head coach with Mount St. Mary’s, after several years as an assistant coach under successful programs such as UNC Greensboro and Radford. 

American plays at a snail’s pace (349th in the country), but pulled off the impossible three-win season against Patriot League mainstay, Colgate. Head coach Duane Simpkins is in his second year with the Eagles and won the Patriot League Tournament with three straight home games. 

American is led by 6-foot-9 forward Matt Rogers (17 PPG), who will be the best player on the floor. The Eagles were No. 1 in defensive turnover rate in the Patriot League, which will be the difference here. 

The Pick

American -2.5

Xavier -2.5 vs. Texas 

(-110, DraftKings Sportsbook)

The Musketeers have the profile of a dangerous First Four team. They have five fifth-year players who comprise the second-most experienced roster in the nation. The Musketeers ranks sixth overall in 3P accuracy, hitting at 39% from beyond the arc. They have a versatile center in Zach Freemantle (17.3 PPG, 7.1 RPG, 76% FT) and a flammable scorer in Ryan Conwell (42% 3P). Led by an experienced head coach Sean Miller, Xavier should be able to get past underachieving Texas, with another favorable matchup against defensively challenged Illinois waiting in the Round of 64. The return of Chendall Weaver helps the Longhorns short bench, but not enough to get past a Xavier team that hits 80% of their free throws. I believe Xavier will stay around for a while in this tournament. 

The Pick

Xavier -2.5