Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The new rookie class around the NFL gets all the attention over the summer. They’re the flashy new pieces for fantasy football, and of course they can be anything.
But last year’s rookies aren’t fully formed yet. The players entering their second season aren’t the fancy new thing anymore. That can open up some value in fantasy drafts for players still due to break out, and it can lead to fantasy mistakes for players who had a good first season that turn out to be a mirage. Everyone knows Year 1 to Year 2 is one of the biggest jumps an NFL player can make, but this still happens.
To try to head this off, over the course of the summer we’re going to revisit last year’s rookie class in our Second-Year Scouting Report series, looking at the incoming sophomore NFL players to see what went right in their rookie season, what went wrong and what we can expect from them going forward.
Zay Flowers, WR, Baltimore Ravens
While it certainly won’t go down in the history books, it was a successful rookie campaign from Zay Flowers last season. He immediately emerged as Baltimore’s top wide receiver, hauling in 77 passes for 858 yards and five touchdowns on 108 targets. From a fantasy perspective, Flowers finished as the WR30, averaging nearly 13 PPR points per contest. He showcased the ability to win at all three levels of the field, and the arrow is certainly pointing up going forward.
What Went Right
Simply put, the Baltimore Ravens wanted to get Flowers the football.
As a rookie, Flowers saw a ton of schemed touches and targets, whether it was in motion, in the screen game, etc. According to FTN Data, Flowers was in pre-snap motion a healthy 19.7% of the time, one of the highest rates among qualified wide receivers. Meanwhile, his 21 receptions off screens were good for the third-most at the position. The overall volume was strong, as Flowers saw a 24% target share over the course of the season. And while many may pinpoint that volume to the absence of tight end Mark Andrews, keep in mind that Flowers’ target share with Andrews active was 22.9%, compared to 23.7% with the All-Pro tight end sidelined. Regardless, Flowers got healthy usage in a slightly different Baltimore scheme. Don’t get me wrong. The Ravens, at their core, remained a run-first offense. But in Todd Monken’s first season as the offensive coordinator, the Ravens were a more aggressive passing attack. They posted a 57.8% early-down pass rate, which didn’t just rank seventh in the league, it was also the team’s highest rate in 15 years.
What Went Wrong
Although Flowers saw strong volume as a rookie, there wasn’t a ton of upside on a per-target basis. Why? Well, most of his work came close to the line of scrimmage. Twenty-six of Flowers’ 77 receptions actually came behind the line of scrimmage, the fifth-most among all wideouts. He also averaged just 56.9 air yards per game, the 13th-lowest mark among qualified wide receivers, while his 2.4 air yards per route run was fifth-worst. Flowers averaged just 7.9 yards per target (26th-worst) and only 6.1 yards before the catch per reception. He did still see a handful of looks deep down the field, though the results just weren’t there. Flowers and Lamar Jackson couldn’t connect on deep passes, as the rookie converted on just 9-of-21 targets 20-plus yards down the field. We would have easily seen 1,000-plus yards if the duo didn’t just barely miss on a few long touchdowns. Only 55.5% of his air yards were actually deemed catchable, according to FTN Data. Again, Flowers had a very solid rookie season. But he left plenty of fantasy points on the field.
Finally, while the target share didn’t fall off in a major way when playing alongside Andrews, we did see Flowers average nearly four fewer fantasy points per game in those instances. Andrews missed seven games last season, but prior to 2023, he averaged 15.4 games played per season.
Prognosis Entering 2024
Historically, betting on talented sophomore wide receivers following a productive rookie campaign is wise. Flowers’ 77 receptions were the 15th-most in a season by a rookie wide receiver since 1966, and I fully expect a jump in efficiency entering Year 2. He’ll continue to see the schemed touches and targets in an elite offense led by an elite quarterback, and once that positive regression on the deep passes hits, Flowers will likely post top-25 production at the wide receiver position in 2024. But unless the Ravens completely abandon the run and heavily rely on the pass (unlikely), Flowers’ ceiling is likely a bit capped, especially with Andrews around.
Dynasty Outlook
At age 23, Flowers is shaping up to be a top-24 dynasty wide receiver going forward. It was encouraging to see him command a 24% target share as a rookie, as Flowers is on the trajectory of becoming Baltimore’s best wide receiver in quite some time. The presence of Andrews and the limited passing volume in this offense will likely keep him from posting a top-12 season, but Flowers makes for a really strong WR3 on contending dynasty rosters.
