Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The new rookie class around the NFL gets all the attention over the summer. They’re the flashy new pieces for fantasy football, and of course they can be anything.
But last year’s rookies aren’t fully formed yet. The players entering their second season aren’t the fancy new thing anymore. That can open up some value in fantasy drafts for players still due to break out, and it can lead to fantasy mistakes for players who had a good first season that turn out to be a mirage. Everyone knows Year 1 to Year 2 is one of the biggest jumps an NFL player can make, but this still happens.
To try to head this off, over the course of the summer we’re going to revisit last year’s rookie class in our Second-Year Scouting Report series, looking at the incoming sophomore NFL players to see what went right in their rookie season, what went wrong and what we can expect from them going forward.
Tucker Kraft, TE, Green Bay Packers
The Packers shockingly took Tucker Kraft in the third round of the 2023 NFL Draft after taking Luke Musgrave a round earlier, 42nd overall. It was a disappointing turn of events for Kraft, with his potential fantasy production capped while playing second fiddle to Musgrave. When given the opportunity, Kraft flashed his PPR potential.
What Went Wrong
When Musgrave was healthy, Kraft was a nonfactor in the offense. He saw five targets in the first 10 weeks of the season, catching three of them for a whopping total of 11 yards. Kraft averaged just 4.8 PPR points per game when both he and Musgrave were in the lineup. He had just three games over 50 receiving yards and failed to surpass 65 yards in a single game.
What Went Right
Musgrave suffered a lacerated kidney in Week 11, opening the door for Kraft to get some run in the offense. Over the six weeks Musgrave was out, Kraft quickly became a favorite target of Jordan Love, averaging five targets per game. He made the most of his opportunity during that stretch, scoring his only two touchdowns and averaging 15 PPR points per game. Kraft scored double-digit fantasy points in every game Weeks 11-17.
Prognosis Entering 2024
While they lack a true alpha pass catcher, the Packers have a plethora of capable ones. Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, Musgrave and even new starting running back Josh Jacobs. If Musgrave is healthy and in the lineup, there should be little to no expectations for Kraft. Watson also missed four of the six games Musgrave was out, leading to the type of volume Kraft saw. Outside of injury, that won’t happen again. There just aren’t enough targets to go around.
Dynasty Outlook
Kraft is nothing more than a dynasty stash at this point. He and Musgrave are entering their second season, so his situation isn’t changing anytime soon. Unless Kraft overtakes Musgrave at the top of the tight-end depth chart, his production will be sporadic at best. If he’s floating out there on waivers, throw him on the end of your bench if it’s a tight-end premium league. Outside of that, leave him on the wire.
