Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The new rookie class around the NFL gets all the attention over the summer. They’re the flashy new pieces for fantasy football, and of course they can be anything.
But last year’s rookies aren’t fully formed yet. The players entering their second season aren’t the fancy new thing anymore. That can open up some value in fantasy drafts for players still due to break out, and it can lead to fantasy mistakes for players who had a good first season that turns out to be a mirage. Everyone knows Year 1 to Year 2 is one of the biggest jumps an NFL player can make, but this still happens.
To try to head this off, over the course of the summer we’re going to revisit last year’s rookie class in our Second-Year Scouting Report series, looking at the incoming sophomore NFL players to see what went right in their rookie season, what went wrong, and what we can expect from them going forward.
Rashee Rice, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City’s 2023 second-round pick Rashee Rice finally gave them what they had been searching for since trading away Tyreek Hill: a true No. 2 option alongside Travis Kelce. It took a while for Rice to be fully unleashed, but after gaining the trust of the coaching staff, he had a strong finish to his rookie season, finishing as a WR1 in three out of his last five games. He carried that momentum into the postseason, playing a critical role in the Chiefs’ second consecutive Super Bowl title. The biggest question for Rice isn’t about talent, but the way he’s handled himself off the field.
What Went Wrong?
Rashee Rice was eased in as a rookie, playing on less than half of the Chiefs’ offensive snaps in five out of his first six games, posting just a 45% route participation rate in Weeks 1-11 (49%). He was borderline droppable in redraft leagues, finishing as a top 24 wide receiver in two out of the first 10 games, averaging 10.2 PPR points and 8.2 half-PPR points during that span. The most frustrating part of Rice’s usage was the lack of competition keeping Rice from seeing the field, playing behind the likes of Skyy Moore, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Justin Watson and when healthy, Kadarius Toney.
What Went Right?
From Week 12 on, the Chiefs finally started using Rashee Rice as a full-time player, bringing in some juice to the offense and igniting their Super Bowl run. Rice was phenomenal down the stretch, running a route on nearly 80% of Patrick Mahomes’s dropbacks over his last six games (79%), surpassing Travis Kelce as the top target in Kansas City, seeing a target on 28% of his routes, while leading the team with 27% target share. During that stretch, Rice saw 9.2 targets per game, averaging seven receptions, 82.2 receiving yards, 17.2 full-PPR points and 14.1 half-PPR points to close out the regular season.
Prognosis Entering 2024
Rashee Rice’s stock has plummeted from where it first opened this offseason, facing much greater target competition entering year two, as well as a possible suspension. Despite winning back-to-back Super Bowls with one of the worst groups of pass catchers in the league, the Chiefs have made an emphasis to upgrade their wide receiver room, signing Marquise Brown in free agency and selecting Xavier Worthy in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft. With no recent reports suggesting Rice will miss time, his ADP has slowly crept up toward the end of the fifth round. Until there’s more clarity on the situation, taking the shot on Rice in fantasy will solely depend on risk tolerance. When on the field, Rice should still be the favorite to lead the Chiefs receivers in targets, given the way he closed out his rookie season, already having familiarity with the system. I’d be willing to gamble with Rice when he falls beyond the first five rounds, hoping to have enough depth if he misses time. If Rice plays the entire season, he’s severely undervalued in the context of where high-end receivers are currently being selected in early drafts.
Dynasty Outlook
Buying low on Rice makes even more sense in dynasty, when looking beyond the 2024 season. At just 24 years old, Rice has a bright future if he can get past the off-field issues, with a chance to take over as Patrick Mahomes’ top target for years to come. He was already outproducing Travis Kelce at the back half of last season, and Kelce turns 35 in October, likely nearing the end of his career. Few players have been as efficient as Rice in their first NFL season, who averaged 2.39 yards per route run as a rookie, posting the 10th-highest mark among all players who saw 50-plus targets last season.
