Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The new rookie class around the NFL gets all the attention over the summer. They’re the flashy new pieces for fantasy football, and of course they can be anything.
But last year’s rookies aren’t fully formed yet. The players entering their second season aren’t the fancy new thing anymore. That can open up some value in fantasy drafts for players still due to break out, and it can lead to fantasy mistakes for players who had a good first season that turn out to be a mirage. Everyone knows Year 1 to Year 2 is one of the biggest jumps an NFL player can make, but this still happens.
To try to head this off, over the course of the summer we’re going to revisit last year’s rookie class in our Second-Year Scouting Report series, looking at the incoming sophomore NFL players to see what went right in their rookie season, what went wrong and what we can expect from them going forward.
Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Detroit Lions
Many scoffed at the idea of the Lions selecting a running back with the 12th overall selection of the 2023 NFL Draft. But Jahmyr Gibbs excelled in his rookie year, rushing for 945 yards and 10 touchdowns on just 182 carries. Despite splitting work with David Mongomery, Gibbs finished as a top-12 fantasy running back, consistently showcasing his tremendous speed and home run ability.
What Went Wrong
The only thing that really “went wrong” for Gibbs last year was the fact that he wasn’t an every-down running back. But at 5-foot-9, 199 pounds, he wasn’t projected to see 20 touches a game or anything like that. As a rookie, Gibbs played about 50% of the snaps, handling 37% of Detroit’s total rushing attempts. He averaged 15.6 touches per game. Montgomery, meanwhile, logged about 40% of the snaps, handled 45% of the rush attempts and averaged 16.7 touches per game. Despite his tremendous skillset catching the football out of the backfield, Gibbs didn’t immediately play on a lot of third downs due to his inconsistencies in pass protection. Through Week 6, Gibbs logged just 42% of the snaps on long down and distances, with Montgomery hovering around 57% during that span.
We also saw Montgomery handle most of the short-yardage carries for the majority of the season. The veteran accounted for 66% of Detroit’s carries inside the 5-yard line last season, and his 10 goal-line carries were the fifth-most in football. His 17 carries inside the 5-yard line were also tied for fourth in the league, while Gibbs finished with eight such carries.
What Went Right
Gibbs immediately emerged as one of the most electric running backs in the league. Although he finished just 25th at the position in total touches, Gibbs posted the sixth-most runs of 10-plus yards (27), which made up a healthy 15% of his total carries on the year. Meanwhile, only Derrick Henry and Christian McCaffrey had more runs of 15 or more yards than Gibbs’ 15. The rookie also averaged the eighth-most yards per touch (5.4) and second-highest breakaway run rate (8.2%). Gibbs finished top-10 at the position in both targets (71) and receptions (52) and as the season went on, Dan Campbell and Ben Johnson were more comfortable putting him on the field on third downs. From Week 8 on, Gibbs was on the field for 57% of long down and distances, while ultimately ending the season logging 73% of the snaps in the two-minute drill.
And while he isn’t a player an offense is going to give 80-90% of the work to, we did see Gibbs get a massive workload in the weeks Montgomery was sidelined. In fact, in three games without Montgomery last year, Gibbs averaged 18 carries, 100 rushing yards, 5.7 targets, 5.0 receptions, 23 touches and 22.2 PPR points per game.
Prognosis Entering 2024
Following a stellar rookie campaign with more work on the way entering year two, Gibbs has now climbed toward the first round of fantasy drafts. And it is warranted. He was the RB10 in fantasy last year despite splitting work with Montgomery and missing two games. His 16.1 PPR points per game ranked eighth-best among running backs and now he should see a little bit more work. The Lions have also been talking about how they want to use him in the passing game even more, specifically further down the field, which presents Gibbs with even more upside than he already has.
Dynasty Outlook
The running back position is often valued less in dynasty formats, but if you are going to actually go out and try to trade for a running back, Gibbs is one of the rare exceptions. Alongside Bijan Robinson and Breece Hall, Gibbs is an elite dynasty running back who will be really good for a long time. He’s 22 years old, plays in an elite offense behind an elite offensive line, and his current workload should help him stay healthy. Not including quarterbacks, Gibbs should be viewed as a borderline top-10 overall player in dynasty leagues.
